Nick
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Everything posted by Nick
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Looking at our window. SP Price 2019-2020-2021-2022 SP Eovaldi 2019-2020-2021-2022 SP E Rod 2019-2020-2021 SP Sale 2019 SP Porcello 2019 SP Wright 2019-2020 SP Johnson 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023 SP Hector 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023 C Vazquez 2019-2020-2021 1B Platoon 2019 2B Pedroia 2019-2020-2021 3B Devers 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023 SS Xander 2019 LF Beni 2019-2020-2021-2022 CF JBJ 2019-2020 RF Betts 2019-2020 DH Martinez 2019 Closer RP Brasier 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023 RP Barnes 2019-2020-2021 RP Workman 2019-2020 RP Poyner 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023-2024 RP Scott 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023
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It sucks to think one of us will be in a play-in game.
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https://weei.radio.com/blogs/rob-bradford/next-offseasons-uncomfortable-reality-red-sox Pretty good read from WEEI. Let's just enjoy 2019 season. I think Rob visits this site.
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No issues for 2019 but big problems on the horizon after 2019. Xander, Sale, Porcello and JD Martinez will require long term contracts. That will hinder 're-set' for 2020 and still maintain room for Betts and JBJ. It definitely will be the proverbial threading the needle to keep the band together.
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It's the same logic as when my wife says I saved YOU 50% on these sales items. I saved over $500. I should go spend more money so I can save you some more, HONEY. Sure.
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Sometimes you have to recognize a star in making at the beginning of his climb. There's a good chance that's where Eovaldi is in his ascension. We maybe getting his best 4 years out of this contract. Combine that with the fact that we may finally see a complete year out of E Rod and I'm excited about our prospects for 2019. If this was at a poker table, I'm playing with the 'house' money right now.
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Your math is wrong below $203.6 Sub total....203.6+18.5+4.4+14.5 = $241 not $251 it's ok to make a mistake or two from time to time, Moon. That's nothing compared to, say, SIGINING PABLO SANDOVAL for $95M. I saw the $18.5M and I couldn't help it. And we're worried about Price's contract?
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We were in NO POSITION to argue about the money or length at the time. You're the new GM on the heels of 2 dead last place finishes. I repeat, 2 freakin' last place finishes. Henry tells you to do something about it. And you're going to argue about the amount of money for best available pitcher? We're currently in the midst of 'happy times' for Sox Nation. 3 consecutive division titles and 1 World Series ring. It was all made possible by signing Price as DD put his signature on the team. It's silly to go back and re-write history. It was ABSOLUTELY the right thing to do AT THE TIME. I still don't see a viable starting pitcher from our farm on the horizon.
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Point 1. Good to have Eovaldi for 2019 as opposed to relying on Wright, Johnson and Hector. My guess is we will still need the latter three to fill in for injuries and heavy schedule. Also don't forget the fatigue factor early in the year. Point 2. There's a good possibility that Eovaldi's career in on the upswing. Don't you think it's possible that he can duplicate or exceed Porcello?I certainly believe that's what DD, Cora and others are thinking. From where I sit, we simply extended Porcello for three years, we are paying $5M less and for 2019 we signed his twin. I just don't see any downside.
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Going over $40M in 2019 won't be as bad as in 2020 because the penalty over the initial cutoff is 30% in 2019 versus 50% for 2020. Another way to look at is we save $8M in 2019 over 2020 because of second time offender status in 2019 versus third time offender status in 2020.
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Good points on Eovaldi. We play each other, what, 19 times? You do have to think about how to beat your nemesis.
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Winning the Division won't be easy but having Eovaldi certainly made our chances better. We don't have to take back seat to anyone. Not saying we'll win but we will be very formidable. Health is the key. Dustin back 100%. E Rod staying healthy all year. Sale returning to form all year. Eovaldi piching the way he did in October. Full year of Pearce. Steady improvement from Devers. Sox have the horses. It's now up to the players.
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Per WEEI Make no mistake out it, signing Eovaldi to this sort of deal is a risk. It always is. But considering what the Red Sox know about the 28-year-old, how Patrick Corbin's recent six-year contract reminded us all of the expense that comes with trying to garner premier starting pitching talent, and the uncertainty that will be two-thirds of the Sox' starting rotation after 2019 thanks to the contracts of Sale and Rick Porcello, this one makes sense. Agian, hedging against Sale/Porcello not returning for myriads of reasons.
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I'm going to repeat myself but what if we reset in 2020? We let both Sale and Porcello go along with Pearce, Moreland, Holt, Wright, and hope JD opts out. Stay with me here. We re-sign Xander to long term contract. We trade away Betts and his $20M anticipated salary for 2019 for younger pieces. Trade him to a team that's an outfielder away from winning it all. We do this with the thought of overpaying Betts for 2021. Hell give him $350M deal. I estimate our CB Payroll going into 2021 to be around $170 with just one signing, Xander. Our budget is $250M for 2021. We'll have approximately $80M to sign Betts, JBJ (incremental pay raise) and a top line starting pitcher. We start over and have a three year window. Rinse and wash. For 2021 SP Price, E Rod, Eovaldi, $25M Man, ????? LineUp Betts, Beni, Xander, Devers, Chavis, Pedroia (DH), Lin, Vaz, JBJ
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We're at $240M in CB Payroll. Second penalty phase ends at $246M. We'll have $81M coming off the books between Pablo, Xander, Sale, Porcello, Moreland, Pearce and Nunez. Say no one comes back. Our CB payroll is $165M with following line-up. Arbitration raises will be due to Betts, JBJ, E Rod and others. Say $20M. Our CB Payroll is now around $185M. SP Price, Eovaldi, E Rod, Wright, Johnson, Hector. Bullpen...pretty much same as it is today. C Vaz 1B Chavis 2B Dustin SS Lin 3B Devers LF Beni CF JBJ RF Betts DH JD Assuming reset, we'll have $23M between Sale, Porcello and Xander. I'd say we sign Xander and let everyone else go. If JD opts out, it's possible to re sign Porcello and stay under the cap. Here's a radical idea. Knowing essentially that 2020 is a 'rebuilding' year, would you consider trading Betts for young talent and then turn around and sign him? That would free up another $20M or so.
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Be Happy Moon. This has been a great off season. I want to feel this way next Christmas.
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Vazquez caught more during the playoffs, no? Cora will not DIE with Leon regardless of what the pitchers think. You don't let the players run the team. If Vazquez is so horrible, what does it say about baseball operations people that extended his contract?
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I think Moon has the copy right on THAT.
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Moon, we're now at $240M in CB Payroll. Our mystical budget is $246M. Can we get a decent closer for $12M? That lst $6M will cost us $10.5M total, (surtax of 75%). I don't think that's way out of line. Kudos to Henry for going after another title. Good to be a Sox fan.
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Nathan Freakin' Eovaldi!
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Now the focus should be on winning the Division. We have the horses to compete in the playoffs. Can Brasier/Barnes fill the closer role? At least until July trade deadline? This is fun.
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DD is decisive if nothing else. I like that about him. He reads the market well. JD market was not there last year. He waited. This year, he knew he had to jump on Eovaldi.
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You probably knew that I meant Sale. Corrected.
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This is where you and I disagree. Signing Eovaldi will serve two purposes. One, it will elevate our success chance for 2019 and more importantly in the playoffs. If I recall, aren't you always advocating acquiring top tier talent for SP as opposed to a fifth starter? Secondly, it will mitigate urgency for signing both Sale and Porcello after the 2019 season. My guess is it will take close to $20M 'delta' to sign both Sale and Porcello. Eovladi money can be thought of as coming from anticipated salary increase for Sale in 2020. (say a bump from $15M to $33M). It's possible Eovaldi may come close to Price's talent. As much as I want Price, 4-years for Eovaldi may be less riskier than going say 6 years, $200M for Sale. In essence, Eovaldi is taking money from Pearce/Moreland/Nunez for 2020. Between Sandoval, Sale and Porcello, that's another $45M to pay for arbitration raises. If JD and his $22M opts out, we can reset after 2019 and and will have enough money to sign Betts and JBJ.
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I still think signing Eovaldi is the right move. It will allow Sox to 'go for it' one more time. If and that's a big if, he has a stellar year, it will make losing Sale little easier to swallow the following year. The staff still has some upside left in E Rod becoming a pitcher that everyone expects. Question is whether the farm can produce a legit, major league starting pitcher within next couple of years.
