Nick
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Everything posted by Nick
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If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
Nick replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Only way I move Betts to 2B is if we sign Harper. That ain't happening. -
That TV contract works out to $37M per team annually. Sox will spend it on players. Others will pocket it. Who is more consumer friendly? Sox or the Rays? Boras has a point.
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Again, missing the point. Yep, Moreland was not going to be the last signing. JD was also not worried about Moreland signing. It wouldn't have matter who but Morleand and JD do not play same position. Moreland signing had nothing to do wit JD. I was merely pointing out that IN WORST CASE SCENARIO, he had every position covered BEFORE he went after the BIG FISH. That's what grown ups do in management. DD is methodical. DD is astute. DD gets what he wants.
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Even Kimmi thinks we need Eovaldi.....I agree.
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Can you see a scenario whereby Sox trading away one major piece (for younger pieces) and still remain competitive for 2020?
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I think you go for it next two years while you still have Betts. We may need several one year rentals for 2020 to stay competitive.
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Cost of luxury tax, $40M plus threshold penalty 2018 $40M x 20% + $20M x 12% = $ 8M + $2.4M = $10.4M total cost $50.4M 2019 $40M x 30% + $20M x 12% = $12M + $2.4M = $14.4M total cost $54.4M 2020 $40M x 50% + $20M x 12% = $20M + $2.4M = $22.4M total cost $62.4M Let's keep the math simple and assume that the luxury tax payroll is $200M. My question is this. In big scheme of things, is there a huge difference between $262.4M (50% penalty) vs $250.4M (20% penalty)? What I'm getting to is this. Once you make the decision NOT to adhere to the luxury tax limit of $200M, would $12M dissuade you from putting the best product on the field? For the Sox, the magic number is NOT $200M, but it's $240M and penalty of $22.4M (50%-3rd year) is not much off from the penalty of $10.4M (30% - 2nd year). We PISS AWAY that money each year in non performing payroll. It's only 5% more. ($12.4M/$250.4) We don't need to reset. Let's just wait for the new CB Agreement and hope the threshold gets a major bump for 2022,
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How much is playing 14 additional games worth to the Red Sox? Not to the players, but to the team? Few years back there was an article about what it meant to the Yankees financially to get into the playoffs. The gist was it was worth another $30M or so. I was thinking at the time that would pay for FA signing for one year. Maybe I was just day dreaming. Any idea?
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Pretty much everyone on Sox roster gets a pass after winning the World Series, for me. Even Pom, who did not hurt us.
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Speaking of Yankees, if they want to remain under luxury tax, they have approximately $33M left for FA spending. Machado would eat up all of it. They will probably go for 1 FA starting pitcher and another via trade. $22M paid to Jacoby is a big hurt. Maybe he can stay healthy next two years. Yankees do have some trading chips for sure. It's not as though they can spend unlimited amount of money if and it's a big if, they was to stay away from luxury tax. Good news for them is that for 2021, they only have two players under contract for $42M. They will have expensive arbitration players by then.
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One thing I liked about DD last year was that he signed Moreland early. Obviously he very well may have overpaid for him but after the signing, we had every position covered. Remember, Hanley was probably going to DH. Moreland signing I believe gave DD an insurance against overpaying JD. His approach very well may have been "look, we have a team. JD can join us or not, but it will be on our terms." He outplayed Boras.
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Is it also slam dunk that JD will opt out after 2019 instead of 2020? He's paid $23.75M for 2018, 2019 (opt out), and 2020 (opt out). Last two years he'll only get $19.375M. Can he get a 4 year $100M after 2019 if he repeats this year's numbers? Why didn't he get that last year when he was year younger? Plenty of people had opportunity to sign him. I think the championship window exists for two more years if we sign Eovaldi and JD does not opt out. Pablo contract will take care of arbitration raises for 2020. We'll also have Moreland ($6.5M), Porcello ($22M) and Sale's ($15M) coming off the books for 2020. That's $43.5M. That's probably enough to sign one starter to go along with Price, E Rod and Eovaldi. Couple of guys need to step up from our farm system. Maybe Dalbec will be ready to play somewhere along with Chavis. Will our farm ever produce a reliable starting pitcher?
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C Vaz (1 Betts 2 Beni 3 Moreland 4 JD 5 Xander 6 Devers 7 Vaz 8 Lin 9 JBJ ) 1B Moreland 2B Lin? SS Xander 3B Devers LF Beni CF JBJ RF Betts DH JD Utility Leon, Nunez, Holt, Swihart SP Price, Sale, Porcello, E Rod, Hector RP Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Johnson, Workman, Scott, Poyner, Thornburg 26 players. Is that good enough to win it all?
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Would you give Kelly, a 4-year, $28M and Eovaldi a 4-year $60M? Would that get the job done?
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DD took the job on the heels of Sox finishing dead last three out of four years. His first task was to right the ship. Signing Price, trading for Kimbrel and Pom were his first order of business. He then moved towards competing for World Championship by first signing Sale and then adding JD to a lineup that seemed 'soft' the previous year. He completed the pursuit by adding Eovaldi and Pearce at trade deadline. Realistically we shouldn't count on Wright nor Pedey returning at 100% next year. They are incapacitated. My priority would be to sign Eovaldi, then Pearce and if we can squeeze in Kelly then we'll be set. I think we can fill 2B internally. We did it in 2018. Cot's has the Sox at $219M. Our fictitious budget is $246M ($40M plus the luxury tax limit of $206M). That only gives us $27M to work with.
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I want us to sign both Eovaldi and Pearce. Bullpen will be manageable. Add reinforcement if needed in July. I know I sound like broken record but Eovaldi signing is a hedge against losing both Porcello and Sale the following year. Think also about another possibility with Eovaldi in the fold. Assuming Wright comes back healthy, and both Hector and Brian continue to improve, I can see a scenario where one of them will occupy the fifth starting slot. This group is all about the team and winning. I can see one of starters stepping in after the All Star break to become a closer. You may think it's stupid idea but who would have thought we'd use so much of our starting pitching out of the pen? Big if but if Pedey comes back healthy and productive, it will solidify one of our weak spots. Young Devers will continue to improve. Christ, he's young. Leave him alone. Star in making. We can build the next great team around Devers and Beni. Hopefully Dalbec, Groome, Chavis, Feltman, Shawarryn, and others will come through.
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I don't remember that but I can get pretty stupid at times.
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Can we also take a different approach with FA signing? Suppose DD says to his baseball staff. I want to sign Eovaldi to a four year contract. The goal is to win in 2019. We will trade him at the end of 2020, hopefully he'll help us go back to back, and hopefully his trade value is high. Let's see what young players we can get in a trade? I think what I'm getting at is find a value in Free Agents signing a good contract and flip them before the contract expires. What can we get for JD right now?
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Positives 6 more years of team control...Poyner, Lin 5 more years of team control...Devers, Johnshon, Hector, Brasier, Maddox, Scott 4 more years of team control...Price, Beni, Marco, Swihart 3 more years of team control...E Rod, Barnes, Vaz, , Pedey, Hembree 2 more years of team control...Betts, JBJ, Wright, Workman, Sandy 1 more year of team control.... Porcello, Sale, Xander, JD, Moreland, Holt, Nunez, Thornburg What if Betts was the only player we don't sign? Can we afford everyone else? Including Pearce and Eovaldi?
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I completely agree on Mookie. I just think it's not prudent to give 10 year contracts. I'd like to see the Sox 'go all out' again 2019 and I think they will. We need to do a reset at some point. Would it make sense to explore the trade value of Mookie after 2019 season? Can we not garner a cost controlled young starting pitcher for Mookie? 2018 win was all about team effort. Had we solely depended on Betts and JD we would have been toast. It's better to have 25 solid major leaguers as opposed to say a Machado or Harper.
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Based on success rate of young players, i would continue to make 2 for 1 trades for farm hands to increase the chance of finding the diamond in the rough.
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Or you can front load the contract with opt out after 2 years. Of course you r screwed if performance goes down or in case of in injury. Give Eovaldi 5 yer $75M. Pay out $18M, $18M, $13M thereafter.
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Our starters need to grow up. It's not their call to decide who should catch them. That decision is up to Cora. If I'm Vazquez, I tell Sale or whoever to GO f*** OFF. You want Leon to catch? f*** YOU. That's how I would feel. They're still bunch of prima donnas. Yeah, that's really being a good teammate. Nope I don't JD in right field on the days I'm pitching. In ten years, it'll be in their contract.
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Something else to consider is there will be a new CB Agreement year AFTER Betts is signed. We may incur less penalty with luxury tax threashhold going up. It's really an exciting time. I know this, all good things must end. I hope Henry leaves the window open as long as he can. Henry will be remembered for owning the Sox more than anything else he'll accomplish in his life. He's been a good steward for the Sox fans. He's set the bar high for next ownership group. He's a smart guy. He knows this is is legacy.
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Unfortunately his $18M could be the difference between winning the world series again. Just think what we can get for that, year early.
