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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. harmony
    The Nationals are unlikely to contend over their remaining two years of team control over MacKenzie Gore.
  2. harmony
    Pitchers Kade Anderson (No. 23), Ryan Sloan (No. 44) and Jurrangelo Cijntje (No. 90) are Top 100 prospects at MLB.com.
  3. harmony
    A healthy Blake Snell would likely be preferred over Sonny Gray as the starter in a Game 2 of a postseason series but a durable Gray would be of more help in getting a club to the postseason.
  4. harmony
    Check out the 2026 Steamer projections for Red Sox pitchers: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=all&team=3&players=0&lg=&z=1764387860&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard ... Yankee pitchers: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=all&team=9&players=0&lg=&z=1764387860&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard ... and Blue Jay pitchers: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=all&team=14&players=0&lg=&z=1764387860&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard
  5. harmony
    FanGraphs projects 30-year-old Sandy Alcantara with 2.5 WAR and a 4.15 ERA next season in 31 starts covering 187 innings; https://www.fangraphs.com/players/sandy-alcantara/18684/stats?position=P Every pitcher carries risks.
  6. harmony
    Any remote Seattle interest in MacKenzie Gore would be as a replacement for Luis Castillo as a No. 4 or 5 starter. Gore is projected to earn $4.7 million in 2026.
  7. harmony
    FWIW MacKenzie Gore posted an ERA of 6.75 in 11 starts after his All Star appearance. Opponents posted a .288/.381/.492/.873 line against Gore in those 11 games.
  8. harmony
    Absolutely not IMHO. The Twins front office may feel otherwise. According to Baseball Trade Values, Garrett Crochet had a surplus value of $53.4 million last December when the Red Sox traded for the left-hander: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/179460 Baseball Trade Values currently assigns Joe Ryan a surplus value of $52.7 million and MacKenzie Gore a surplus value of $48.4 million.
  9. harmony
    FWIW in their offseason plan the Locked On Mariners podcasters proposed a trade of six years each of catcher Harry Ford, right-hander Logan Evans and outfielder/inflielder Tai Peete for two years of MacKenzie Gore (with a separate dump of Luis Castillo's salary.) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcK7lWfD7G0&t=252s
  10. harmony
    Last offseason with two years of team control, Garrett Crochet was coming off a season of 4.6 fWAR/4.1 bWAR with an ERA+ of 115 in 146 innings. With two years of team control, Joe Ryan is coming off a season of 3.1 fWAR/4.5 bWAR with an ERA+ of 125 in 171 innings. With two years of team control, MacKenzie Gore is coming off a season of 2.9 fWAR/3.0 bWAR with an ERA+ of 98 in 159.2 innings. Ryan is four years older today than Crochet was last offseason. Gore is a year and four months older today than Crochet was last offseason.
  11. harmony
    Seattle is highly. highly unlikely to trade left-hander Kade Anderson. A year ago the White Sox trade of Garrett Crochet netted Kyle Teel (No. 25 overall prospect), Braden Montgomery (No. 54 overall prospect), Chase Meidroth (No. 11 in Red Sox system) and Wikelman Gonzalez (No. 14 in Red Sox system)..
  12. harmony
    A Locked On Nationals podcaster proposes that two years of MacKenzie Gore land three Top 75 prospects in Kade Anderson (No. 23), Harry Ford (No,. 42) and Jonny Farmelo (No,. 75) in a trade with the Seattle Mariners : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFlyFKGJSvY&t=956s That's more than the Red Sox surrendered last offseason for two years of Garrett Crochet.
  13. harmony
    FWIW for as long as they’re living, Brayan Bello will be 35 days older than Garrett Crochet.
  14. harmony
    Sonny Gray might not be the ideal choice to start Game 2 of a postseason series but the veteren right-hander should help a team secure a playoff berth. Steamer projects Gray ninth among all pitchers in 2026 WAR, ahead of many pitchers who might be a better choice as a Game 2 starter: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=&team=0&players=0&lg=all&z=1764301458&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard Gray's regular-season bulk has value.
  15. harmony
    Sonny Gray might not be the ideal choice to start Game 2 of a postseason series but the veteran right-hander should help a team secure a playoff berth. Steamer ranks Gray ninth among all pitchers in 2026 WAR, ahead of many pitchers who might be a better choice as a Game 2 starter: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=&team=0&players=0&lg=all&z=1764301458&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard Gray's regular-season bulk has value.
  16. harmony
    As an aside, will Alex Bregman be another one-and-done at third base for the Red Sox? In his age 31 season, Bregman posted 3.5 bWAR/3.5 fWAR in 114 games with the 2025 Red Sox. In his age 31 season, Adrian Beltre posted 7.8 bWAR/6.4 fWAR in 154 games with the 2010 Red Sox. Under his complicated contract, Bregman earned about $40 million this year while Beltre had a $9 million salary in 2010. After the 2010 season, Beltre signed a five-year, $80 million contract with the Texas Rangers.
  17. harmony
    Steamer projects Sonny Gray 10th among all pitchers in 2026 WAR, ahead of Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Max Fried, Joe Ryan and Freddy Peralta, among others: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=&team=0&players=0&lg=all&z=1764128644&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard
  18. harmony
    FWIW Sonny Gray is a year younger today than Curt Schilling was on November 28, 2003, when the Red Sox acquired Schilling in trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schilcu01.shtml#all_transactions_other Gray is also seven inches shorter than Schilling. Schilling had a good first season in Boston, leading the Red Sox to their first World Series title since 1918. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2004.shtml
  19. harmony
    Steamer projects Sonny Gray ninth among all pitchers in 2026 WAR, ahead of Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Max Fried and Joe Ryan, among others: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=&team=0&players=0&lg=all&z=1764042313&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard
  20. harmony
    Despite being a cumulative stat, WAR does not adequately appreciate bulk. Over the past three years Sonny Gray has averaged 177 innings per season with an ERA of 3.63 and an ERA+ of 116. Only 10 pitchers have thrown more innings over that period. Those bulk pitchers provide value by saving a bullpen that overwise would be overtaxed by less durable starters.
  21. harmony
    The 2026 Red Sox got better today.
  22. harmony
    A Locked On Cubs podcaster proposed that the Cubs sign Rob Refsnyder to a one-year, $5 million contract: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUgAU6WUCxk&t=1137s ... at 13:40.
  23. harmony
    FWIW Baseball Trade Values currently assigns Ceddanne Rafaela a surplus value of $31 million and Nick Lodolo a surplus value of $30.8 million.
  24. harmony
    In a wide-ranging offseason plan, the Locked On Mariners podcasters proposed a trade of minor league outfielder Ricardo Cova to the Red Sox for infielder David Hamilton: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcK7lWfD7G0 ... at 44:50. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cova--000ric
  25. harmony
    Seattle has good homegrown starters in Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller but probably regrets trading away Freddy Peralta and Pablo Lopez.
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