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This week ZiPS released its three-year projections, including these numbers for Marcelo Mayer and Ben Williamson: 2026: MM 1.0 WAR in 88 games; BW 2.0 WAR in 134 games 2027: MM 1.1 WAR in 93 games; BW 1.7 WAR in 133 games 2028: MM 1.4 WAR in 98 games; BW 1.8 WAR in 130 games In total, ZiPS projects Mayer with 3.5 WAR in 279 games (1.25/100) and Williamson with 5.5 WAR in 397 games (1.39/100). FanGraphs’ 2026 projections from eight sources generally offer similar parallels: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcelo-mayer/29668/stats/batting#dashboard https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ben-williamson/33197/stats/batting#dashboard Mayer and Williamson each come with six years of team control; neither is likely to attain Super Two status after the 2027 season. Nevertheless, Baseball Trade Values assigns Mayer $50.9 million in surplus value and Williamson $7.8 million in surplus value. Does Mayer cling to a trade value based on a top prospect sheen that may have worn off?

The San Francisco Giants are highly unlikely to trade their No. 2 starter in Robbie Ray for Masataka Yoshida even if the Red Sox tossed in spare change.

Kyson Witherspoon has never thrown a professional pitch so the post included all MLB.com prospect rankings since the Red Sox drafted Witherspoon in July. For comparison, Jurrangelo Cijntje's rankings on the same lists were provided. Witherspoon had no professional stats to compare.

Should expired prospect rankings be given more weight than production in rookie seasons? An even more serious question: Should outdated prospect rankings be considered in 2026 projections?

Mickey Lolich went to the same high school as Red Sox legend Johnny Pesky (as well as The Simpsons creator Matt Groening and my two daughters). Lincoln High School in Portland, Oregon.

The prior ranking was provided to show that MLB.com has consistently ranked Kyson Witherspoon and Jurrangelo Cijntje similarly.

Contrasting opinions are always welcome. Opinions supported by data are especially welcome. Prospect rankings offer subjective evaluations. A biased Seattle fan might cite the CBS Sportsline Top 100 prospect list, which ranks Jurrangelo Cijntje No. 44 and Kyson Witherspoon No. 77: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/ranking-top-100-mlb-prospects-kevin-mcgonigle-jesus-made-konnor-griffin-sebastian-walcott-colt-emerson/ A biased Red Sox fan might cite Keith Law's prospect list, which ranks Witherspoon No. 62 and omits Cijntje from the Top 100: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6985939/2026/01/26/top-mlb-prospects-2026-keith-law-konnor-griffin/ An objective fan might cite MLB.com's Top 100 prospect list, which ranks Witherspoon No. 84 and Cijntje No. 91: https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects

The current difference between No. 84 and No. 91 on a Top 100 prospect list is not significant. Marcelo Mayer and Ben Williamson offer difficult comparisons as Mayer was a No. 4 overall pick out of high school in 2021 while Williamson was a second-round, No. 57 overall pick in 2023 as a rare four-year college player. In 55 games his senior year at William & Mary, Williamson posted a .390/.513/.662/1.175 line (57 R, 12 HR, 49 RBI, 14 SB, 40 BB, 22 K). Williamson was rushed to the majors 20 months after the draft with only 150 minor league games under his belt. Mayer debuted 39 days later after 315 games over five seasons in the minors. Last season Mayer posted 0.2 bWAR (0.4 fWAR) and a wRC+ of 85 in 44 games while Williamson posted 1.3 bWAR (0.4 fWAR) and a wRC+ of 76 in 85 games.

How did Brayan Bello enter this discussion? Baseball Trade Values assigns Kyson Witherspoon a surplus value of $17.3 million and Jurrangelo Cijntje a surplus value of $12.7 million. Your doubts about Marcelo Mayer's value are shared. ZiPS projects Mayer with a 2026 WAR of 1.0 in 88 games and Ben Williamson with a 2026 WAR of 2.0 in 134 games.

Thank you for the Red Sox bias. MLB.com ranks Kyson Witherspoon and Jurrangelo Cijntje No. 84 and No. 91 on its current list after ranking Witherspoon and Cijntje No. 90 and No. 89 on its previous list. FanGraphs projects Marcelo Mayer with 1,5 WAR and a wRC+ of 90 in 125 games and Ben Williamson with a 0.5 WAR and wRC+ of 86 in 45 games. ZiPS projects Mayer with a wRC+ of 84 and Williamson with a wRC+ of 87. Mayer's prospect sheen has worn off.

With a Seattle bias, Jurrangelo Cijntje could be compared with Kyson Witherspoon (No. 15 overall picks in consecutive MLB drafts) and Ben Williamson could be compared with Marcelo Mayer (post-prospects who have similar projections for the 2026 season). The Red Sox would be unlikely to trade Witherspoon and Mayer for Brendan Donovan, much less adding a middling prospect and a comp draft pick. The Cardinals spread their risk across five incoming assets while the Mariner risk falls on one player who may or may not outproduce Cole Young and Colt Emerson this season. In the deal Seattle acted like a contending team.

FanGraphs Depth Charts currently have the Red Sox and the Seattle Mariners tied with a projected WAR of 45.6: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=11 ... with the Red Sox holding a clear edge in pitching (22.1-17.6) and the Mariners with a clear edge in batting (28.0-23.5). My, how things have changed. Red Sox hitters lack the star power of the top-heavy Seattle lineup headed by Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh with projected WAR of 5.9 and 5.8, respectively. Many have one-time top prospect Marcelo Mayer penciled in as a Red Sox starter but his WAR projections are remarkably similar to those of Ben Williamson, the current projected third baseman for the Mariners.

FWIW last year Trevor Story, Carlos Narvaez, Ceddanne Rafaela and Marcelo Mayer posted wRC+ of 101, 97, 91 and 80, respectively.

Is anyone concerned that FanGraphs projects Trevor Story and Marcelo Mayer with 2026 wRC+ of 93 and 90, respectively? https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=fangraphsdc&stats=bat&pos=all&team=3&players=0&lg=all&z=1769744686&sortcol=16&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard Ceddanne Rafaela and Carlos Narvaez come in at projected wRC+ of 97 and 89, respectively.

The Red Sox place five prospects on ESPN's Top 100 list released Tuesday: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/47684202/top-100-mlb-prospects-2026-kiley-mcdaniel-konnor-griffin-kevin-mcgonigle-jesus-made

Twin Daily blogger Nate Palmer proposes a catcher-for-catcher trade between the Twins and Red Sox: https://twinsdaily.com/news-rumors/minnesota-twins/a-deal-with-boston-could-twins-ship-ryan-jeffers-out-in-a-catcher-for-catcher-swap-r19672/

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/valuing-major-leaguers

Harry Ford is the 42nd-ranked prospect at MLB.com after posting a .283/.408/.460/.868 line as a 22-year-old catcher last year at Triple A (4.8 years younger than the league's average age).

Those BTV valuations are puzzling. FanGraphs projects Marcelo Mayer with a 2026 wRC+ of 96 and 1.8 WAR in 122 games after Mayer posted a wRC+ of 80 and 0.4 fWAR in 44 games last year. FanGraphs projects Luke Keaschall with a 2026 wRC+ of 112 and 3.0 WAR in 131 games after Keaschall posted a wRC+ of 134 and 1.6 fWAR in 49 games last year. With 164 days of MLB service, Keaschall is likely headed to Super Two status in two years while Mayer, with 128 days of MLB service, could be on the Super Two cusp in two years. As a result, Keaschall could be more expensive for four seasons before free agency. Mayer, who is four months younger than Keaschall, could be clinging to value as a former top draft pick.

FanGraphs projects Marcelo Mayer with 1.8 WAR and a wRC+ of 96 in 122 games this year after Mayer posted 0.4 WAR and a wRC+ of 80 in 44 games last year. Mayer is projected to walk in 7.3 percent and strike out in 22.7 percent of 525 plate appearances this year after walking in 5.9 percent and striking out in 30.7 percent of 136 plate appearances last year. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcelo-mayer/29668/stats/batting

Isaac Paredes is not Eugenio Suarez. Last season Paredes walked and struck out at a 11.4 percent and 17.4 percent clips, respectively, and for his career has clips of 11.1 percent and 17.4 percent. Last season Alex Bregman walked and struck out at 10.3 percent and 14.1 percent clips, respectively, and for his career has clips of 11.8 percent and 13.4 percent.

How many trade partners would be willing to take on Patrick Sandoval's 2026 salary of $12.75 million? Nevertheless, Baseball Trade Values assigns Sandoval a modest surplus value of $5.4 million: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?page=1&q=sandoval As the Red Sox negotiate the luxury tax thresholds, trading Sandoval for nothing would not save the club $12.75 million in the tax calculation. The Sox would save only the $9.13 million AAV under the left-handers's two-year contract.

Over the past four seasons Ranger Suarez posted an ERA+ of 117 and 12.1 bWAR in 588.1 innings while over the same period Sonny Gray posted an ERA+ of 117 and 11.3 bWAR in 650.2 innings. Suarez overtook Gray with a 4.7-to-1.4 bWAR edge in 2025. The 30-year-old Suarez and the 36-year-old Gray may be trending in different directions. Or not.

If the St. Louis Cardinals can trade Nolan Arenado to the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are on the hook for $5.5 million annually for two years, can the Red Sox trade two years of Masataka Yoshida (and cash) to achieve a similar AAV for the trade partner?

Just Baseball podcasters propose trades of Jarren Duran for Isaac Paredes (and others) and another trade of Wilyer Abreu for Nico Hoerner (and others): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oEv1aX0Yfcw