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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. harmony
    The 2023 Seattle Mariners missed the postseason despite winning 88 games in the regular season.
  2. harmony
    In 2021 the Toronto Blue Jays missed the postseason despite winning 91 games in the regular season. The 2021 Seattle Mariners, with 90 wins, would have missed the postseason under the current format.
  3. harmony
    The 2021 Seattle Mariners missed the postseason despite winning 90 games in the regular season and the 2023 Seattle Mariners missed the postseason despite winning 88 games: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/
  4. harmony
    Fair enough, The Mariners underperformed in 2025.
  5. harmony
    Seattle may be the unluckiest club over the past five seasons. In a league that now sends six teams to the postseason, the Mariners have made only two postseason appearances in the last five years despite posting the league's third-best cumulative regular-season record over that period. To borrow a cliche: Hope springs eternal ... for every club.
  6. harmony
    To be precise: last year in the regular season the Seattle Mariners won 90 games and the Red Sox 89 games. In the postseason the Mariners added six wins and the Red Sox one win. Some contend the Mariners underperformed in 2025. Best wishes to each club this season.
  7. harmony
    FanGraphs columnist Ben Clemens offers his positive take on the Red Sox offseason: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-red-sox-did-it-all-this-winter/
  8. harmony
    Like the Patriots, the Red Sox will need to get past Seattle.😉😉😉 Best wishes to the Red Sox and Mariners this season.
  9. harmony
    Unless you're the 2024 Seattle Mariners, who missed the postseason despite 149 starts from their five-man starting rotation: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2024.shtml In 2024 Seattle won the fewest games (85) of any Mariner team over the past five seasons (90, 90, 88, 85, 90).
  10. harmony
    A delusional San Francisco Giants podcaster thinks the trade of Kyle Harrison to Milwaukee confirms that the Rafael Devers trade was a heist for the Giants: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWju1lIvhWo
  11. harmony
    Caleb Durbin played collegiately in St. Louis at Washington University of the University Athletic Association, an NCAA Division III conference of top academic schools. This West Coast poster toured Wash U with his daughter her senior year in high school.
  12. harmony
    Matt Shaw is listed with only 162 days of MLB service, giving him six years of team control (and almost certain Super Two status after 2027).
  13. harmony
    This week ZiPS released its three-year projections, including these numbers for Marcelo Mayer and Ben Williamson: 2026: MM 1.0 WAR in 88 games; BW 2.0 WAR in 134 games 2027: MM 1.1 WAR in 93 games; BW 1.7 WAR in 133 games 2028: MM 1.4 WAR in 98 games; BW 1.8 WAR in 130 games In total, ZiPS projects Mayer with 3.5 WAR in 279 games (1.25/100) and Williamson with 5.5 WAR in 397 games (1.39/100). FanGraphs’ 2026 projections from eight sources generally offer similar parallels: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcelo-mayer/29668/stats/batting#dashboard https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ben-williamson/33197/stats/batting#dashboard Mayer and Williamson each come with six years of team control; neither is likely to attain Super Two status after the 2027 season. Nevertheless, Baseball Trade Values assigns Mayer $50.9 million in surplus value and Williamson $7.8 million in surplus value. Does Mayer cling to a trade value based on a top prospect sheen that may have worn off?
  14. harmony
    The San Francisco Giants are highly unlikely to trade their No. 2 starter in Robbie Ray for Masataka Yoshida even if the Red Sox tossed in spare change.
  15. harmony
    Kyson Witherspoon has never thrown a professional pitch so the post included all MLB.com prospect rankings since the Red Sox drafted Witherspoon in July. For comparison, Jurrangelo Cijntje's rankings on the same lists were provided. Witherspoon had no professional stats to compare.
  16. harmony
    Should expired prospect rankings be given more weight than production in rookie seasons? An even more serious question: Should outdated prospect rankings be considered in 2026 projections?
  17. harmony
    Mickey Lolich went to the same high school as Red Sox legend Johnny Pesky (as well as The Simpsons creator Matt Groening and my two daughters). Lincoln High School in Portland, Oregon.
  18. harmony
    The prior ranking was provided to show that MLB.com has consistently ranked Kyson Witherspoon and Jurrangelo Cijntje similarly.
  19. harmony
    Contrasting opinions are always welcome. Opinions supported by data are especially welcome. Prospect rankings offer subjective evaluations. A biased Seattle fan might cite the CBS Sportsline Top 100 prospect list, which ranks Jurrangelo Cijntje No. 44 and Kyson Witherspoon No. 77: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/ranking-top-100-mlb-prospects-kevin-mcgonigle-jesus-made-konnor-griffin-sebastian-walcott-colt-emerson/ A biased Red Sox fan might cite Keith Law's prospect list, which ranks Witherspoon No. 62 and omits Cijntje from the Top 100: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6985939/2026/01/26/top-mlb-prospects-2026-keith-law-konnor-griffin/ An objective fan might cite MLB.com's Top 100 prospect list, which ranks Witherspoon No. 84 and Cijntje No. 91: https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects
  20. harmony
    The current difference between No. 84 and No. 91 on a Top 100 prospect list is not significant. Marcelo Mayer and Ben Williamson offer difficult comparisons as Mayer was a No. 4 overall pick out of high school in 2021 while Williamson was a second-round, No. 57 overall pick in 2023 as a rare four-year college player. In 55 games his senior year at William & Mary, Williamson posted a .390/.513/.662/1.175 line (57 R, 12 HR, 49 RBI, 14 SB, 40 BB, 22 K). Williamson was rushed to the majors 20 months after the draft with only 150 minor league games under his belt. Mayer debuted 39 days later after 315 games over five seasons in the minors. Last season Mayer posted 0.2 bWAR (0.4 fWAR) and a wRC+ of 85 in 44 games while Williamson posted 1.3 bWAR (0.4 fWAR) and a wRC+ of 76 in 85 games.
  21. harmony
    How did Brayan Bello enter this discussion? Baseball Trade Values assigns Kyson Witherspoon a surplus value of $17.3 million and Jurrangelo Cijntje a surplus value of $12.7 million. Your doubts about Marcelo Mayer's value are shared. ZiPS projects Mayer with a 2026 WAR of 1.0 in 88 games and Ben Williamson with a 2026 WAR of 2.0 in 134 games.
  22. harmony
    Thank you for the Red Sox bias. MLB.com ranks Kyson Witherspoon and Jurrangelo Cijntje No. 84 and No. 91 on its current list after ranking Witherspoon and Cijntje No. 90 and No. 89 on its previous list. FanGraphs projects Marcelo Mayer with 1,5 WAR and a wRC+ of 90 in 125 games and Ben Williamson with a 0.5 WAR and wRC+ of 86 in 45 games. ZiPS projects Mayer with a wRC+ of 84 and Williamson with a wRC+ of 87. Mayer's prospect sheen has worn off.
  23. harmony
    With a Seattle bias, Jurrangelo Cijntje could be compared with Kyson Witherspoon (No. 15 overall picks in consecutive MLB drafts) and Ben Williamson could be compared with Marcelo Mayer (post-prospects who have similar projections for the 2026 season). The Red Sox would be unlikely to trade Witherspoon and Mayer for Brendan Donovan, much less adding a middling prospect and a comp draft pick. The Cardinals spread their risk across five incoming assets while the Mariner risk falls on one player who may or may not outproduce Cole Young and Colt Emerson this season. In the deal Seattle acted like a contending team.
  24. harmony
    FanGraphs Depth Charts currently have the Red Sox and the Seattle Mariners tied with a projected WAR of 45.6: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=11 ... with the Red Sox holding a clear edge in pitching (22.1-17.6) and the Mariners with a clear edge in batting (28.0-23.5). My, how things have changed. Red Sox hitters lack the star power of the top-heavy Seattle lineup headed by Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh with projected WAR of 5.9 and 5.8, respectively. Many have one-time top prospect Marcelo Mayer penciled in as a Red Sox starter but his WAR projections are remarkably similar to those of Ben Williamson, the current projected third baseman for the Mariners.
  25. harmony
    FWIW last year Trevor Story, Carlos Narvaez, Ceddanne Rafaela and Marcelo Mayer posted wRC+ of 101, 97, 91 and 80, respectively.
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