harmony

Remember when the Carson Smith trade was considered a big deal? http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/redsox-trade-wade-miley-mariners.html The jury is still out on that one as the Red Sox await the return of the reliever. Wade Miley posted 0.6 fWAR and 0.4 bWAR in 19 starts for Seattle before being traded for another lefthander, Ariel Miranda, who posted 0.0 fWAR and 0.9 bWAR in 11 appearances with the Mariners. Jonathan Aro posted 0.0 fWAR in one appearance in Seattle while Carson Smith posted 0.0 fWAR in three appearances and Roenis Elias a negative 0.2 fWAR in three appearances in Boston. Smith remains under team control for four years although the righthander is expected to miss the first months of the 2017 season. Elias likely remains under team control for five years (including four arbitration seasons), Miranda for six years and Aro for six years. In the end the trade may have little impact on either team.

I expressed this precise sentiment to a Red Sox fan today.

For what it's worth, this year the Mariners got 2.5 fWAR and the Red Sox 2.2 fWAR from the catching position. Seattle got 1.2 fWAR in only 55 games from 25-year-old Mike Zunino. The M's would not want to downgrade to Swihart, who is barely one year younger than Zunino, given Zunino's far superior defensive skills. This season Zunino had a wRC+ of 115 and Swihart a wRC+ of 95, albeit in small samples. Zunino's defensive skills rival those of Christian Vazquez, who is older than Zunino. Seattle's Jesus Sucre is Sandy Leon's counterpart while veteran catchers Chris Iannetta and Ryan Hanigan await decisions on 2017 team options. I suspect Seattle is looking to contend in 2017 after finishing fourth in the league in run differential en route to 86 wins this year. A prospect package is not all that attractive.

Kansas City infielder Cheslor Cuthbert is working out at second base in the Arizona Instructional League: http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansas-city-royals/article105886017.html I suspect the Royals would have some interest in Rafael Devers.

To be precise, this year Francisco Lindor posted 6.3 fWAR and 5.7 bWAR while Xander Bogaerts posted 4.7 fWAR and 3.7 bWAR. The 24-year-old Bogaerts remains under team control for three increasingly expensive arbitration seasons while Lindor, who is 13 months younger than Bogaerts, remains under team control for five seasons. As a likely Super Two, 26-year-old Jackie Bradley remains under team control for four increasingly expensive arbitration seasons.

A net $39.5 million for one year of Clay Buchholz and four years of Rusney Castillo is too steep a price for two players with a combined age of 61 coming off a season with a combined fWAR of 0.5.

Cleveland righthander Josh Tomlin started the only game I've ever attended at Fenway Park, going seven innings and surrendering a grand slam home run to Adrian Beltre in a 6-2 Red Sox victory in 2010: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201008050.shtml

Is Rusney Castillo in a transactional purgatory? Castillo is owed $46 million over the next four seasons but his salary does not count against the Red Sox luxury tax threshold because the 29-year-old outfielder has been removed from the 40-man roster. However, any team seeking to acquire Castillo for its 40-man roster would need count his salary in its luxury tax calculations. The Red Sox likely would need to pay much of the $46 million remaining on the contract but would have less motivation to do so because the salary does not count for their luxury tax purposes. But wait a second ... if the Red Sox pay part of the salary of a player on another team's 40-man roster, the Red Sox contribution should count in the Red Sox luxury tax calculation. Hence, the purgatory. This Seattle fan thought of Castillo because the strong-hitting Mariners need to improve their defense, especially in the outfield. I wondered how much the Red Sox would need to pay to close a trade of Castillo and one year of Clay Buchholz for a low-level Seattle prospect.

In an age of $20 million-a-year deals, the White Sox have no "awful contracts." The White Sox will owe James Shields only $22 million over the next two seasons if the righthander, as expected, does not opt out of his contract: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/chicago-white-sox/ Shields may have a less-than-desirable contract but the deal is by no means crippling for a club that had less than $70 million committed to the 2017 payroll before trading for Shields and $30 million in cash. The top White Sox salary this year was the $15.75 million to John Danks, who in May was released in the final year of his contract. With the many affordable contracts referenced, the big-market White Sox are in a great position to be major players in the free agent market this offseason. The second name cited, Adam Eaton, is a bargain after posting a 2016 fWAR of 6.0, more than any Red Sox not named Mookie. The reasons why Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, David Robertson, Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier would be attractive trade targets for the Red Sox are the same reasons why the White Sox should build a contending team around them.

A team with Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, David Robertson, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier, Adam Eaton, Tim Anderson, Melky Cabrera, a healthy Brett Lawrie, Carlos Rodon, Nate Jones, Dan Jennings and Zach Duke is not far from competing after posting the same number of wins (78) this year that Red Sox posted last year.

Before the shortstop's steep second-half slide, FanGraphs columnist Dave Cameron ranked Xander Bogaerts 20th in trade value among all players: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-trade-value-11-to-20/ However, the White Sox have a younger option in 23-year-old Tim Anderson, who posted 2.2 fWAR (2.8 bWAR) in 99 games this year while the 24-year-old Bogaerts posted 4.9 fWAR (3.7 bWAR) in 157 games. Anderson remains under team control for six seasons while Bogaerts remains under team control for only three increasingly expensive arbitration seasons. I doubt the White Sox will trade Chris Sale this offseason.

After the Red Sox lost two games on the road in the 2009 American League Divisional Series, starter Clay Buchholz pitched well in Game 3 at Fenway Park only to be let down by the bullpen as the Los Angeles Angels swept the series: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS200910110.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2009_ALDS2.shtml I remember listening to Game 3 on my transistor radio as I walked the three miles home from church that Sunday.

That projected Game 7 of the American League Championship Series would be played at Fenway Park on Saturday, Oct. 23, when I am likely to be on a rare visit to Boston. If I could only afford a ticket.

The Red Sox had walk-off wins on May 15 and June 23 and walk-off losses on May 28, June 12, July 28, August 24 and September 4: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2016-schedule-scores.shtml

I am surprised that 26-year-old infielder Deven Marrero remains on the 40-man roster given his .192/.239/.235/.475 line in 368 plate appearances at Triple A this year.

For what it's worth, Henry Owens is 24 years old: http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=owens-002hen

Has Jason Varitek or Scott Boras verified what advice Boras gave Varitek in the 2008-09 offseason when the Red Sox catcher ultimately settled for a one-year, $5 million contract? http://archive.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2009/01/31/charge_boras_with_wild_pitch_client_with_error_in_judgment/ Ultimately the player, not the agent, decides whether to accept or decline an offer. Judging an agent on the basis of one negotiation is akin to judging Mookie Betts' career on the basis of his four-strikeout performance in one game against the Yankees: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA201504100.shtml

I can't track down that statistic but here are career lines in so-called high-leverage situations: DO 1955 PA, .290/.386/.551/.937 EM 1749 PA, .313/.431/.511/.942 http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=ortizda01&year=Career&t=b http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=martied01&year=Career&t=b Ortiz has a slight edge over Martinez in career Situational Wins Added: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/wpa_li_bat_career.shtml

But what about being down a run in the bottom of the 11th inning of the decisive fifth game of an American League Divisional Series? I get it that many would pick David Ortiz but I doubt the vote would be unanimous. Given their respective career strikeout rates -- 17.4 percent for Ortiz and 13.9 percent for Edgar Martinez -- Ortiz might be the likelier candidate to be the Mighty Casey [Who] Has Struck Out.

That's why it's a Hall of Fame, not a Hall of Baseball's Best Players. Edgar Martinez did what he could:

Any mention of Edgar Martinez should note that the career Seattle Martinez posted 68.3 bWAR in 18 seasons to the 54.1 bWAR posted in 20 seasons by David Ortiz. Just one factor to consider.

As points of reference, I offer the career bWAR of secondbasemen Dustin Pedroia, Chase Utley, Robinson Cano and Ian Kinsler: 32-year-old Dustin Pedroia, 49.4 bWAR in 11 seasons, two World Series, two World Series titles, one AL RoY, one AL MVP 37-year-old Chase Utley, 63.4 bWAR in 14 seasons, two World Series, one World Series title 33-year-old Robinson Cano, 60.3 bWAR in 12 seasons, one World Series, one World Series title 34-year-old Ian Kinsler, 51.5 bWAR in 11 seasons, two World Series, no World Series titles

Did I pick the wrong day to have Zack Greinke in my fantasy lineup?

To be precise, Seattle has 23 homes games and 26 road games remaining. The Mariners play the division-leading Texas Rangers four times at home and three times on the road. The M's play their next seven games on the road against the struggling Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels. The Mariners, who have won six straight since the disappointing split with the Red Sox at Safeco Field, now trail the Sox by one game in the Wild Card race.

For what it's worth, Clay Buchholz was Baseball America's fourth-ranked prospect entering the 2008 season: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2008/265655.html