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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. harmony
    How could I be bitter about a Mariner club that has made a slew of tactical moves to improve on this year's 86-win team? Some teams improve by raising the ceiling while others improve more efficiently by raising the floor. Over the past three seasons the Mariners have experienced neither the highs nor the lows the Red Sox have (although Seattle's cumulative winning record is better than Boston's losing record over that period). I hope both clubs field competitive teams in 2017.
  2. harmony
    Today is the sixth anniversary of the Red Sox trade for Adrian Gonzalez: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzaad01.shtml#trans The Carl Crawford signing came five days later: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/crawfca02.shtml#trans
  3. harmony
    A Mariner beat reporter tweets that Seattle is likely to look into Clay Buchholz or Drew Pomeranz:
  4. harmony
    In light of the looming luxury tax threshold, Boston GM Dave Dombrowski deserves high marks for acquiring Chris Sale and Tyler Thornburg while adding only a projected $8.7 million to the payroll for luxury tax purposes.
  5. harmony
    The Red Sox will pay the entire remaining $31.2 million in obligations to Yoan Moncada, according to Bruce Levine: Does any of that count against the Red Sox for luxury tax purposes?
  6. harmony
    Using the SoxProspects rankings, Boston traded its. No. 1, No. 5, No. 7 and No. 21 prospects for three years of the extremely team-friendly contract of ace Chris Sale. http://www.soxprospects.com/ I suspect the White Sox got a fair return.
  7. harmony
    It's done, according to Ken Rosenthal: Moncada, Kopech and two other prospects.
  8. harmony
    Compare the lines for Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg in the season before each reliever's trade to the Red Sox: CS 2015 70 IP, 13 SV, 22 BB, 92 K, 2.31 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 166 OPS+, 2.1 fWAR TT 2016 67 IP, 13 SV, 25 BB, 90 K, 2.15 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 199 OPS+, 2.0 fWAR
  9. harmony
    Boston GM Dave Dombrowski apparently is not reluctant to trade prospects for relievers. Using the SoxProspects rankings, the Red Sox traded No. 4 Manuel Margot, No. 6 Javier Guerra and No. 13 Logan Allen for Craig Kimbrel, No. 15 Pat Light for Fernando Abad and No. 10 Mauricio Dubon in a package for Tyler Thornburg. Carson Smith and Roenis Elias cost the Red Sox only Wade Miley and No. 24 Jonathan Aro.
  10. harmony
    The Milwaukee Brewers sold high on reliever Tyler Thornburg, whom Steamer projects with a 2017 WAR of 0.5 with an ERA of 3.94 in 65 innings: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10688&position=P At the same time, the Red Sox probably sold high on Mauricio Dubon, who posted a gaudy .323/.379/.461/840 line in 549 plate appearances across High A and Double A this season as a 21-year-old shortstop. http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=dubon-000mau A good trade should benefit each team. Given each club's needs, that might be accomplished with the trade of five years of Travis Shaw and six years each of Mauricio Dubon and Josh Pennington for three years of Tyler Thornburg.
  11. harmony
    Moon, I'm at it again with Clay Buchholz. Would anyone trade one year of 32-year-old righthander Clay Buchholz at $13.5 million for one year of 34-year-old Seattle outfielder Seth Smith to serve in a designated hitter platoon with Chris Young? The lefthand-hitting Smith, who will earn $7 million next season, has posted a .272/.355/.472/.827 career line against righthanders, including a .256/.351/.431/.782 line this year. Steamer projects Smith with a 2017 WAR of 1.2 in 486 plate appearances and Buchholz with a 2017 WAR of 1.7 in 23 starts. The deal would save the Red Sox $6.5 million off the 2017 payroll.
  12. harmony
    The Los Angeles Dodgers are shopping starters Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir, according to ESPN's Buster Olney: The 33-year-old McCarthy is owed $20 million over the next two seasons while Kazmir, who turns 33 in January, is owed $32 million over the next two seasons. Steamer projects the righthanded McCarthy and the lefthanded Kazmir each with 2017 WAR of 1.5 in 16 starts: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4662&position=P http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4897&position=P Steamer projects 32-year-old righthander Clay Buchholz, who has one year and $13.5 million remaining on his contract, with a 2017 WAR of 1.7 in 23 starts: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3543&position=P It should be an interesting trade market for blemished starters.
  13. harmony
    In light of luxury tax implications, I question whether the Red Sox would want the $220 million remaining on Miguel Cabrera's contract at $28 million to $32 million a year.
  14. harmony
    I suspect the Red Sox want to avoid the luxury tax implications of Justin Verlander's $28 million annual salary for the next three seasons. Because of the luxury tax implications, Chris Sale is worth more to the Red Sox than the lefthander is to a team that is not up against the luxury tax threshold.
  15. harmony
    I was a big fan of new Yankee Matt Holliday in his prime but ... Compare the 2016 lines of Holliday and another righthand-hitting free agent, Chris Carter: MH 426 PA, .246/.322/.461/.783, OPS+ 107, wRC+ 109, fWAR 0.7 CC 644 PA, .222/.321/.499/.821, OPS+ 114, wRC+ 112, fWAR 0.9 Holliday turns 37 years old in January and Carter turns 30 this month.
  16. harmony
    ESPN columnist Scott Lauber speculates that the Red Sox could pursue Curtis Granderson or Jay Bruce as a lefthand-hitting designated hitter now that Carlos Beltran has signed elsewhere: http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0597083688584352404-4 The problem would be getting either salary under the luxury tax threshold. Granderson is owed $15 million and Bruce $13 million next season in the final years of their contracts.
  17. harmony
    In a Clay Buchholz trade, the trade partner would want to trade a reliever with a surplus value that corresponds with the limited surplus value of Buchholz. If the Red Sox are saving $12 million on the trade the return would be a reliever earning $1.5 million with limited surplus value. That's not a particular good reliever ... probably a pitcher in the back end of the bullpen. MLB Trade Rumors, which has been low on its free agent salary predictions, in early November projected Brad Ziegler with a two-year, $16 million contract. In light of the contracts to Brett Cecil and Marc Rzepczynski, the reliever market may be as heated as the starter market. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2016-17-top-50-mlb-free-agents-predictions.html
  18. harmony
    Roster Resource typically is a comprehensive website, but it does not list Roenis Elias on the Red Sox depth chart: http://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-boston-red-sox/ ... although Elias remains on the 40-man roster: http://m.redsox.mlb.com/bos/roster/40-man/
  19. harmony
    I suspect the Red Sox have explored the trade market for Clay Buchholz. I wonder what they've found.
  20. harmony
    Perhaps the Red Sox are waiting to shed payroll to stay under the luxury tax threshold before spending big on a free agent.
  21. harmony
    I suspect the luxury tax threshold came into play for the Red Sox. I'm not surprised that Carlos Beltran signed only days after the Collective Bargaining Agreement was settled.
  22. harmony
    Bullpen arms won't come cheap this offseason if the contracts for Brett Cecil and Marc Rzepczynski are any indication.
  23. harmony
    The salaries of Allen Craig and Rusney Castillo do not count against the luxury tax because neither is on the Red Sox 40-man roster. The Red Sox would be fortunate to find a trade partner willing to pay $4 million of Pablo Sandoval's $19 million annual AAV salary. The savings for luxury tax purposes would be limited to the trade partner's contribution.
  24. harmony
    Well, I raised this issue last month: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17583-Clay-Buchholz-Is-he-worth-the-2016-option?p=1038051#post1038051 And I guess I made a brief mention in this post about Rusney Castillo's contract: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17963-Looking-ahead-to-2017/page7 And I offered this response to one of your posts: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17549-A-Realistic-View-at-2016/page155
  25. harmony
    I made a brief mention of Clay Buchholz in a largely unrelated post then responded to your inquiries: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17862-Postseason-Happenings-2016?p=1040101#post1040101
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