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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. Depends on the market. Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects Xander Bogarts with the sixth-highest WAR among shortstops in 2017: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d Four of the five shortstops ranked ahead of Bogaerts are younger than Bogaerts.
  2. Pete Abraham has sent mixed signals: https://www.facebook.com/peter.abraham.globe/photos/pb.200090780020182.-2207520000.1486172620./1773737602655484/?type=3&theater
  3. Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects these 2017 lines for Mitch Moreland and Sam Travis: MM 71 R, 21 HR, 76 RBI, 2 SB, .255/.319/.433/.752, wRC+ 95, 0.7 WAR ST 70 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 11 SB, .272/.326/.417/.743, wRC+ 95, 0.7 WAR http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players= ZiPS projects 2017 WAR of 0.5 in 427 plate appearances for Moreland and 0.4 in 368 plate appearances for Travis (and OPS+ of 90 for Moreland and 97 for Travis). http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/
  4. From today's FanGraphs chat with columnist Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-2317/#more-244245
  5. I think that may have been Kyle Martin, not Carson Smith: https://www.facebook.com/peter.abraham.globe/videos/1773297922699452/
  6. MLB.com columnist Phil Rogers lists the Red Sox as the most improved team: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/214169470/which-mlb-team-improved-most-this-offseason/
  7. The Red Sox have two good defensive catchers but should not expect great hitting from any of the three projected catchers. ZiPS projects 2017 OPS+ of 81 for Sandy Leon, 80 for Blake Swihart and 72 for Christian Vazquez: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/ FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project 2017 wRC+ of 87 for Swihart, 79 for Vazquez and 74 for Leon. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9774&position=C http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5273&position=C Last year all catchers had an average OPS+ of 90 and average wRC+ of 87. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2016 http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
  8. ZiPS projects 2017 OPS+ of 137 for Edwin Encarnacion and 120 for Hanley Ramirez. FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project 2017 wRC+ of 123 for Encarnacion and 120 for Ramirez. Bald opinions are occasionally interesting but rarely enlightening. I offer opinions sparingly. Instead I provide relevant information that the reader may incorporate or ignore in reaching his or her own opinion ... or not.
  9. ??? Edwin Encarnacion has posted more hits than Hanley Ramirez in five of the last six seasons, the lone exception coming in 2012 when Ramirez had 155 hits to Encarnacion's 152 hits. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirha01.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/encared01.shtml
  10. Over the last five seasons Hanley Ramirez has an OPS+ of 123 in 623 games while over the same period Edwin Encarnacion has an OPS+ of 146 in 727 games. Each player was born in 1983 although Encarnacion is nearly a year older. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirha01.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/encared01.shtml Despite that wide five-year disparity, FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project 2017 wRC+ of 120 for Ramirez and 123 for Encarnacion. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8001&position=SS http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2151&position=1B/3B/DH
  11. Thanks, moonslav59 The Seattle Times forum is probably busier than this site: http://forums.seattletimes.com/forums/viewforum.php?f=22 Over at SB Nation, Lookout Landing and Over the Monster probably have similar traffic: http://www.lookoutlanding.com/ http://www.overthemonster.com/ U.S.S. Mariner has slowed down significantly since the Dave Cameron days: http://www.ussmariner.com/ Prospect Insider plugs along: http://prospectinsider.com/ Shannon Drayer's blogs attract responses: http://sports.mynorthwest.com/category/mariners-blog/ My favorite Mariners beat reporter is the Tacoma News-Tribune's Bob Dutton, former president of the Baseball Writers' Association of America: http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mlb/seattle-mariners/mariners-insider-blog/article129618024.html
  12. This question? Honest answer: Yes On Page 203 of this thread, I provided three recent examples in my answer to your question.
  13. My original comp of Hanley Ramirez and Danny Valencia, on Page 201 of this thread, listed those three-year WAR and projected WAR.
  14. In my recent comp of Hanley Ramirez and Seattle's Danny Valencia I could have cherry-picked their stats for only the past two seasons when Ramirez posted an OPS+ of 110 in 252 games while Valencia posted an OPS+ of 126 in 235 games. However, being arguably the most objective contributor to this forum, I thought the three-year sample presented a fairer picture: Ramirez OPS+ 117 in 380 games, Valencia OPS+ 116 in 321 games. The comp received this response in a FanGraphs chat on Monday: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/travis-sawchik-fangraphs-chat-2/
  15. Perhaps a better comparison would be David Ortiz, who played 2,162 innings in the field, and Edgar Martinez, who played 4,829 innings in the field, focusing on their hitting numbers: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ortizda01.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martied01.shtml http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=745&position=DH http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1086&position=3B/DH Or not.
  16. Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post Maybe not the best choice, but we need depth. I hope we have better in the works. http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/18029-2017-Rotation?p=1046255#post1046255 Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post I was betting on 1.5 at about 100 IP. I'd take the over on 2.0 at 200 IP for sure. http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17991-A-Realistic-View-at-2017-Part-I?p=1046063#post1046063 Originally Posted by Spudboy View Post And how do the other outfielders compare for both teams? http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17790-The-Benintendi-Thread?p=1046055#post1046055
  17. John Olerud posted 58.0 bWAR (57.3 fWAR) in 17 seasons while Mark Grace posted 46.1 bWAR (45.5 fWAR) in 16 seasons. As a point of reference, David Ortiz posted 55.4 bWAR (50.5 fWAR) in 20 seasons. The average prospect of Travis' age and prospect ranking accumulates less than four WAR in the seven years following the ranking: https://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-to-expect-from-baseball-americas-top-100-prospects/
  18. In his bounceback 2016 season, Hanley Ramirez posted 2.6 fWAR, valued at $20.7 million, while pulling down a salary of $22 million. Two years and $44 million into his four-year, $88 million contract, Ramirez has posted 0.8 fWAR, valued at $6.2 million.
  19. ESPN columnist Scott Lauber offered his take on Sam Travis: http://www.espn.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/51654/sam-travis-aka-mr-intensity-is-hell-bent-on-the-bigs Lauber writes of Travis' relationship with Chicago Cubs slugger Kyle Schwarber, his teammate at Indiana University. On this forum I've compared Travis with Seattle first base prospect Dan Vogelbach, who coincidentally was a teammate of Schwarber's on the 2015 Tennessee Smokies. Compare their lines on the 2014 Indiana Hoosiers and the 2015 Tennessee Smokies: IU14 KS 232 AB, .358/.464/.659/1.123 IU14 ST 245 AB, .347/.415/.576/.991 TS15 KS 243 PA, .320/.438/.579/1.017 TS15 DV 313 PA, .272/.403/.425/.828 http://iuhoosiers.com/documents/2015/9/19//14_indiv.pdf?id=19925 http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/team.cgi?id=db646cfb I have not seen Vogelbach on any Top 100 prospect lists but Steamer600, which assume 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects 2017 WAR of 0.7 for Travis and 1.1 for Vogelbach. http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players= http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=11&lg=all&players=
  20. Providence Journal beat reporter Brian MacPherson writes about Hanley Ramirez and this offseason's class of righthanded hitters: http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/20170128/ramirez-may-be-too-rich-luxury-for-red-sox As a side note, over the past three seasons Hanley Ramirez has an OPS+ of 117 in 380 games while Seattle's Danny Valencia has an OPS+ of 116 in 393 games over the same period. Valencia and Ramirez are defensively challenged righthanded hitters born nine months apart. The slightly younger Valencia has a three-year fWAR of 3.7 while Ramirez has a three-year fWAR of 4.2. ZiPS, FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer and Steamer600 project 2017 WAR of 1.4, 0.6, 0.4 and 0.5 for Valencia and 1.8, 2.0, 1.6 and 1.8 for Ramirez. Valencia will earn $5.55 million in his final year of team control while Ramirez will earn $22.75 million in the third year of his four-year contract with a vesting fifth-year option. For the Mariners, Valencia is projected to be on the short end of platoon at first base and back up Kyle Seager at third base: http://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-seattle-mariners/
  21. It's hardly a put-down to write that the Red Sox deserve to be in the conversation about AL favorites. https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/01/28/red-sox-runaway-east-not-fast/ImKMmhw271PH00Irq5PcOM/story.html I'm excited about the 2017 Seattle Mariners but stop short of writing that the M's deserve to be in the conversation about AL favorites. I am hopeful that things can break the M's way to end the 15-year postseason drought. The Mariners have a better record than the Red Sox over the past three seasons with neither the highs nor the lows the Sox experienced over that period. Last year Seattle had the league's fourth-best run differential, finishing third in runs scored and third in team ERA. The M's were undermined by woeful defense and base-running. The hope is that the additions of Jarrod Dyson, Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger will address those deficiencies. Gone are the days of Seth Smith, Nelson Cruz and Nori Aoki patrolling the expansive Safeco outfield. This could be Seattle's year ... or not. As a Mariner fan I'm no stranger to disappointment.
  22. Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter and 65 innings for each reliever, projects 2017 WAR of 0.7 for Mitch Moreland, 0.5 for Tyler Thornburg, 0.9 for Koji Uehara and 0.6 for Junichi Tazawa. David Ortiz posted 4.4 fWAR last year.
  23. Indeed the Red Sox last year scored 101 more runs than they closest American League rival, the Cleveland Guardians (who this offseason added Edwin Encarnacion while the Sox lost David Ortiz). The previous year the Blue Jays scored 127 more runs than their closest American League rival, the New York Yankees. Without losing a David Ortiz-caliber hitter, the Blue Jays in 2016 fell to fifth in the league in scoring. In 2016 the Red Sox received stellar performances from Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley, who posted fWAR pf 7.8, 5.2, 4.8 and 4.7, respectively. These are four great players but I doubt more than one will match or exceed his 2016 fWAR (and the current Steamer, ZiPS and FanGraphs Depth Charts projections support that). Few Red Sox players are projected to regress upward. The Red Sox deserve to be in the conversation of American League favorites but I'm unconvinced that the Sox have made a net improvement over the 2016 AL East champs.
  24. Even with Toronto losing Edwin Encarnacion, no AL East club lost a player who posted the .315/.401/.620/1.021, OPS+ 162 line of David Ortiz last year. Like last offseason the Red Sox made a high-profile splash with the acquisition of an "ace" starter but also lost Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa and Clay Buchholz. The Red Sox are in a position to repeat as AL East champs but I question whether the outlook is much brighter.
  25. I rarely watch baseball on television but instead listen to radio broadcasts on a regular basis because radio does not command most of my attention. Growing up in the Midwest in the 1960s I did not have radio broadcasts of my favorite team so I checked the box scores in the newspaper each morning. I would get the West Coast scores a day-and-a-half late.
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