harmony

Seattle could probably survive the loss of righthander Nate Karns, whose 2017 Steamer WAR projection of 1.7 matches that of Clay Buchholz before the latter's projection was revised downward following the Chris Sale trade. As things stand now the Red Sox are the American League favorites but the Sox will have competition.

The flip side is that his value could drop if Clay Buchholz suffers yet another injury. Risks abound.

The Red Sox are bumping up against the luxury tax threshold if they're not already over for the third straight year. Sanctions under the new CBA add to the 50 percent tax a potential loss of draft picks and international signing money. I suspect the Red Sox want to avoid those penalties and still have budget space to make mid-season moves. http://www.telegram.com/sports/20161205/dombrowski-red-sox-will-try-to-stay-under-luxury-tax-threshold Clay Buchholz currently accounts for $13.5 million of the 2017 budget although projections suggest that the 32-year-old righthander has limited, if any, surplus value with a projected 2017 WAR of 1.7*, which this year was valued at $13.5 million. Bartolo Colon, with a projected 2017 WAR of 2.2, landed a one-year, $12.5 million contract. Andrew Cashner, with a projected 2017 WAR of 1.2 (and a higher WAR than Buchholz over the past four seasons), landed a one-year, $10 million contract. R.A. Dickey, with a projected 2017 WAR of 1.8, signed a one-year, $8 million contract. Neither Colon, Cashner nor Dickey cost his new team a draft pick or existing talent. The Red Sox should expect little in return if a trade partner assumes the entire $13.5 million owed Buchholz in 2017. A better return may come if the Sox pay part of the salary although that contribution will count against the Red Sox luxury tax threshold. We'll see whether the Red Sox avoid harsh penalties by coming in under the luxury tax threshold for the first time in three years. * the WAR projections are from Steamer, which revised the Buchholz projection down to 0.5 following the Chris Sale trade. I use the original 1.7 WAR projection for this valuation.

Indeed Clay Buchholz would be more marketable if the righthander were earning his 2013, 2014 or 2015 salary. But he's not ... and it makes a difference:

Clay Buchholz was worth more in 2013 than he is today. According to the FanGraphs conversion, Buchholz has been valued at $41.5 million over the past three seasons, which is in line with Steamer's 2017 WAR projection of 1.7, valued this year at $13.5 million. Steamer has since revised the 2017 projection down to 0.5 in six starts but the 1.7 WAR projection is more practical in the valuation. Buchholz was mentioned prominently in this Over the Monster piece today: http://www.overthemonster.com/2016/12/9/13898032/red-sox-prefer-to-keep-drew-pomeranz-trade-clay-buchholz ... including this tweet from an MLB blogger:

I proposed a one trade of outfielder/DH Seth Smith for Clay Buchholz because Seattle probably doesn't need a $7 million platoon partner (who could complement Chris Young). I don't recall another trade proposal involving Buchholz (although on other boards I've discussed proposed Seattle trades for Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy, Ervin Santana, Shelby Miller, Patrick Corbin, Homer Bailey, Zack Wheeler, Matt Garza, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb and even Wade Miley).

As we approach the 2017 season, Clay Buchholz has not won more than eight games in a season since 2013. The Red Sox rocket scientists have deployed Buchholz to the tune of a 4.60 ERA and 93 ERA+ over the last three seasons.

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2016/12/red_sox_trying_to_stay_under_l.html https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2016/12/05/red-sox-conscious-of-new-luxury-tax-penalties-this-offseason http://boston.cbslocal.com/2016/12/07/massarotti-dombrowski-now-tasked-with-shedding-salary-to-get-red-sox-under-luxury-tax/ http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/20161206/luxury-tax-penalties-dissuade-red-sox-from-offering-extensions-to-betts-bogaerts http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/boston-red-sox-taking-stricter-luxury-tax-penalties-consideration-offseason

By the same token, a horrendous stretch by Clay Buchholz "could mean the difference between playing baseball in October and playing golf then." And Buchholz has experienced horrendous stretches. That's the rub that limits Buchholz's value.

Another team's "need" for a Clay Buchholz-level starter may not be as great as the Red Sox need to get and stay under the luxury tax threshold. Most clubs can send out to the mound several starters who have posted a low 90s ERA+ over the past three seasons. On the other hand, the Red Sox cannot simply cut payroll by voiding contracts. The Sox could choose to exceed the luxury tax threshold for a third straight year but under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement would face onerous sanctions not limited to monetary penalties. I don't see the Red Sox in a position of strength in negotiations.

Did you mean lefty Drew Pomeranz?

Even with his spectacular stretch in 2015, over the past three seasons Clay Buchholz has an ERA of 4.60 and an ERA+ of 93 in only 67 starts (and 16 relief appearances). Over the same period Bartolo Colon has an ERA of 3.90 and an ERA+ of 97 while, more importantly, making 95 starts (and three relief appearances). I am generally a conservative investor who views Clay Buchholz as a volatile stock.

Koji Uehara reportedly is on the brink of signing with the Cubs:

Koji Uehara is close to signing with the Cubs, according to Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald:

I suspect the Red Sox did not open the negotiations by offering Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. It almost certainly was a process.

Boston GM Dave Dombrowski is taking calls on starting pitchers just as Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto is taking calls on Seth Smith. Perhaps eventually each will receive the right offer.

Boston Globe columnist Alex Speier reports that the Red Sox are currently under the luxury tax threshold: http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/12/07/red-sox-have-some-payroll-flexibility-but-not-lot/8kxd3dJOmnTWjEbsCODbfO/story.html

Do you think Dave Dombrowsi is making calls to get under the luxury tax threshold?

A team "desperate" for starting pitching will call a team equally desperate to get under the luxury tax threshold. Incentives abound.

Clay Buchholz may not be at the top of my wish list but the righthander is probably worth consideration.

As noted, Clay Buchholz has a higher ceiling but lower floor than many mid- to bottom-of-the-rotation starters. Is it worth $13.5 million to find out whether Buchholz will exceed the projected 1.7 WAR (valued at $13.5 million)? Steamer projects a 2017 WAR of 1.7 for Seattle righthander Nate Karns, who likely has a lower ceiling but higher floor than Buchholz. The Buchholz floor might be lower than that of Seattle lefthander Ariel Miranda, who is projected at 1.1 WAR in only 119 innings. Karns and Miranda currently slot as No. 4 and No. 5 in the Seattle rotation. I doubt Buchholz would land, as another posted suggested, an MLB-ready starter with options. Karns and Miranda fall into that category but are needed for rotation depth. Seattle's newly acquired righthander Chris Heston, who pitched a no-hitter among his 31 starts in 2015, comes with options and five years of team control. I suspect the Mariners will find a solution elsewhere but I enjoy discussing the possibilities with fans of other teams. A Mariner beat reporter writes: "Boston is eager to unload Buchholz, who is owed $13.5 million for 2017." Read more here: http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mlb/seattle-mariners/mariners-insider-blog/article119662648.html#storylink=cpy

2016 was a contract year for righthander Andrew Cashner, who posted a higher WAR than Clay Buchholz over the past four seasons. Cashner's WAR dropped from 2.7 in 2013, to 2.3 in 2014, to 2.3 in 2015 to 0.4 in his contract year. Steamer currently projects Buchholz with a 2017 WAR of 0.5 in 37 innings after previously projecting 1.7 WAR in 23 starts. Even using the higher 1.7 WAR Buchholz and his $13.5 million salary represent limited surplus value because this year 1.7 WAR was valued at ... $13.5 million.

The AL Central has represented the American League in the World Series in four of the past five seasons. The AL East has represented the American League in the World Series only once in the past seven seasons.

The Red Sox reportedly tried to trade for Wade Davis before trading for Tyler Thornburg: http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2016/12/07/source-red-sox-made-strong-run-at-royals-closer-wade-davis/

That's why I was suggesting a cost-saving Red Sox trade of Clay Buchholz for Seth Smith before the Sox opted for the lesser bat but glitzier glove of Mitch Moreland. Now I don't see a good match unless the Red Sox take the one-year, $6 million commitment to reliever Steve Cishek, who may miss the start of the 2017 season after undergoing labrum surgery on his hip. Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto made nonstop moves the first month of the offseason before heading to the Winter Meetings with the goal of landing a mid-rotation starter. Dipoto may walk away from the meetings with only rotation depth in 28-year-old San Francisco righthander Chris Heston, who missed much of the 2016 season after tossing a no-hitter among his 31 starts in 2015. The search continues: