harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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Also worth noting is that J.D. Martinez, unlike Lorenzo Cain, does not require the signing club to surrender a draft pick as compensation.
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Absent collusion, the team that lands J.D. Martinez is likely to overpay. As I've written repeatedly, the Red Sox may not want to be that team.
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If the Milwaukee Brewers could sign Lorenzo Cain to a five-year contract I would not be surprised if another team has already offered J.D. Martinez six years. I suspect multiple teams are pursuing Martinez. Who would have thought the small-market Brewers -- with an existing outfield Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun and Keon Broxton -- would acquire Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain?
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Boston Herald columnist Michael Silverman suggests that if Lorenzo Cain, who is 16 months older than J.D. Martinez, can land a five-year contract, the Red Sox should offer Martinez more than five years: http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2018/01/silverman_lorenzo_cain_move_affects_red_sox_pursuit_of_jd_martinez
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Unsubstantiated rumor of a three-way trade involving the Yankees, Orioles and Diamondbacks: https://twitter.com/yanksbreaking ... with nothing better to write about.
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Scott Boras and Dave Dombrowski are professionals who have dealt with each other in the past. Either side can politely give the opposing negotiator a deadline on an offer. Boras could be the party saying "We need to have an answer by _____ or we're moving on." The Red Sox and J.D. Martinez may not have appealing alternatives ... or maybe each does. We don't know.
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Friday's Hot Stove roundup from FanRag columnist Jon Heyman: https://www.fanragsports.com/inside-baseball-mlb-notes-are-the-brewers-done-dealing/
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I doubt Scott Boras is inclined to play along with amateurs. Perhaps the Red Sox are prepared to go with the lineup projected at Roster Resource: RF Betts ® LF Benintendi (L) SS Bogaerts ® 1B Moreland (L) DH Ramirez ® 3B Devers (L) CF Bradley (L) C Vazquez ® 2B Hernandez (L) https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-boston-red-sox/
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And Scott Boras, with a better offer already in hand (or not), would laugh.
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With a 2017 fWAR of 1.5 and projected 2018 WAR of 1.5 and 1.7, Ryan Braun lacks surplus value with three years and $57 million remaining on his contract. What could Hanley Ramirez return in a trade? FanGraphs Depth Charts project 2018 WAR of 1.7 in 595 plate appearances for Braun and 1.3 in 595 plate appearances for Ramirez. Braun has three years and $57 million remaining on his contract while Ramirez, who is five weeks younger than Braun, has a 2018 salary of $22 million with a vesting option for $22 million in 2019. Neither contract is appealing but the Ramirez contract is not much worse than the Braun contract with its two additional years.
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I suspect Hanley Ramirez with his $22 million salary would be a deal-breaker for the Milwaukee Brewers (or any National League team).
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With a 2017 fWAR of 1.5 and projected 2018 WAR of 1.5 and 1.7, Ryan Braun lacks surplus value with three years and $57 million (or $60 million) remaining on his contract.
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Six years of 27-year-old lefthander Brian Johnson, who is out of options, for three years of Ryan Braun at $57 million and one of two lefty relievers -- 27-year-old Tyler Webb or 28-year-old Brent Suter -- who each have two remaining options and six years of team control. With the recent signing of southpaw Boone Logan, the Brewers may have a surplus of lefties in the bullpen.
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Introducing Boston designated hitter Ryan Braun, the righthand-hitting masher the Red Sox seek. Over the past two seasons Braun has posted 4.8 fWAR in 239 games while J.D. Martinez has posted 5.6 fWAR in 239 games. Steamer projects 2018 WAR of 1.5 in 522 plate appearances for Braun and 2.3 in 547 plate appearances for Martinez. The 34-year-old Braun has three years and $57 million remaining on his contract (with an AAV of $21 million) while the 30-year-old Martinez reportedly has a five-year, $125 million offer.
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I respect Scott Boras but this year's market probably is hindered by Boras as the agent of three of the top four (and four of the top six) free agents, according to MLB Trade Rumors: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html None of those four has signed to date. Just as the market might be ripe for collusion, the market might be ripe for an agent's conflicts of interest that drop below that traditional acceptable level. At any rate I suspect MLB and the MLBPA will investigate means to avoid an annual recurrence of this slow offseason.
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If we're joking today, would the Red Sox trade 27-year-old lefthander Brian Johnson to Seattle for the minor league contract of 31-year-old second baseman Gordon Beckham, a former first-round draft pick who in 2009 peaked at No. 20 on Baseball America's Top 100 prospect list? Johnson, who shut out the Mariners last May, would be reunited with catcher Mike Zunino, his college battery-mate at the University of Florida. I guess Beckham would need to consent to the trade because he signed a second minor league contract with Seattle on December 12.
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Did anyone else find that MLB Trade Rumors chat response confusing?
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If J.D. Martinez has a better offer from another team perhaps Scott Boras will give the Red Sox "a timed ultimatum."
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First base is the weakest position for the Seattle Mariners.
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The prospect-mania of the past decade is dying down. Top prospects were overvalued for years as the low floors of many distant prospects offset their decent ceilings. Many teams now place more value on an MLB-ready player with years of team control regardless of whether the player fits the arbitrary definition of prospect.
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If the Red Sox are not careful they might end up with Hanley Ramirez as the full-time designated hitter Which may be the better result ... or not.
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That's one reason every MLB front office has an analytics department to produce contrasting statistics (that might be flawed as well). Still, I appreciate each side's work with advanced metrics.
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Boston Globe columnist Nick Cafardo includes quotes from Scott Boras in this week's Sunday Baseball Notes: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/01/20/scott-boras-likely-won-flinch-any-time-soon-and-his-clients-know/Yov2FRA8TRSaZu18ghT4SK/story.html
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What if J.D. Martinez has two or three offers of $125 million? Should he wait for a bidder to up its offer?
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And teams often end up signing free agents for more than the team's initial offer.