harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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Six years of 27-year-old lefthander Brian Johnson, who is out of options, for three years of Ryan Braun at $57 million and one of two lefty relievers -- 27-year-old Tyler Webb or 28-year-old Brent Suter -- who each have two remaining options and six years of team control. With the recent signing of southpaw Boone Logan, the Brewers may have a surplus of lefties in the bullpen.
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Introducing Boston designated hitter Ryan Braun, the righthand-hitting masher the Red Sox seek. Over the past two seasons Braun has posted 4.8 fWAR in 239 games while J.D. Martinez has posted 5.6 fWAR in 239 games. Steamer projects 2018 WAR of 1.5 in 522 plate appearances for Braun and 2.3 in 547 plate appearances for Martinez. The 34-year-old Braun has three years and $57 million remaining on his contract (with an AAV of $21 million) while the 30-year-old Martinez reportedly has a five-year, $125 million offer.
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I respect Scott Boras but this year's market probably is hindered by Boras as the agent of three of the top four (and four of the top six) free agents, according to MLB Trade Rumors: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html None of those four has signed to date. Just as the market might be ripe for collusion, the market might be ripe for an agent's conflicts of interest that drop below that traditional acceptable level. At any rate I suspect MLB and the MLBPA will investigate means to avoid an annual recurrence of this slow offseason.
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If we're joking today, would the Red Sox trade 27-year-old lefthander Brian Johnson to Seattle for the minor league contract of 31-year-old second baseman Gordon Beckham, a former first-round draft pick who in 2009 peaked at No. 20 on Baseball America's Top 100 prospect list? Johnson, who shut out the Mariners last May, would be reunited with catcher Mike Zunino, his college battery-mate at the University of Florida. I guess Beckham would need to consent to the trade because he signed a second minor league contract with Seattle on December 12.
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Did anyone else find that MLB Trade Rumors chat response confusing?
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If J.D. Martinez has a better offer from another team perhaps Scott Boras will give the Red Sox "a timed ultimatum."
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First base is the weakest position for the Seattle Mariners.
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The prospect-mania of the past decade is dying down. Top prospects were overvalued for years as the low floors of many distant prospects offset their decent ceilings. Many teams now place more value on an MLB-ready player with years of team control regardless of whether the player fits the arbitrary definition of prospect.
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If the Red Sox are not careful they might end up with Hanley Ramirez as the full-time designated hitter Which may be the better result ... or not.
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That's one reason every MLB front office has an analytics department to produce contrasting statistics (that might be flawed as well). Still, I appreciate each side's work with advanced metrics.
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Boston Globe columnist Nick Cafardo includes quotes from Scott Boras in this week's Sunday Baseball Notes: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/01/20/scott-boras-likely-won-flinch-any-time-soon-and-his-clients-know/Yov2FRA8TRSaZu18ghT4SK/story.html
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What if J.D. Martinez has two or three offers of $125 million? Should he wait for a bidder to up its offer?
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And teams often end up signing free agents for more than the team's initial offer.
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MLB Trade Rumors pulls together recent report on the Red Sox: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/red-sox-notes-roster-swihart-pomeranz.html
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I suspect Scott Boras informed J.D. Martinez that the initial asking price was not where the negotiations would likely end. For all we know the current offers have already met his realistic expectations but Martinez is waiting for the bidding to leave only one team standing. Or not.
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I had read almost nothing from Scott Boras since the Winter Meetings until FanRag columnist Jon Heyman posted this long piece on Friday: https://www.fanragsports.com/inside-baseball-scott-boras-weighs-in-on-slow-market/ Heyman has the reputation of being a Boras mouthpiece but the column provided an interesting read. Do the Red Sox covet J.D. Martinez more than J.D. Martinez wants the Red Sox? http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2018/01/tom_werner_red_sox_in_active_negotiations_with_jd_martinez#.WmKYZ01HDMo.twitter
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From ESPN staff writer Scott Lauber this morning: http://www.espn.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/53867/are-the-red-sox-gonna-sign-j-d-martinez-or-what-heres-what-we-know
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What team do you think has made the best offer to date?
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Boston Herald columnist Michael Silverman tweets that the Red Sox have offered J.D. Martinez "roughly $125 million over five years": I wonder what the best offer is.
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Scott Boras undoubtedly has a conflict of interest with many of his clients but I suspect Boras informs each prospective client of the potential conflicts, asks the player to sign a waiver and advises the player to seek independent counsel on that narrow issue. Boras is a licensed attorney in California but I assume the agent contract Boras offers to players clearly states that he is the player's agent, not the player's attorney. Different rules apply.
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I too am baffled for the negative 17 dWAR for Rusney Castillo.
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For what it's worth, ZiPS projects 2018 WAR of 0.9 in 405 plate appearances for Rusney Castillo and 2.0 in 354 plate appearances for Jarrod Dyson. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/ https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-seattle-mariners/ Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each outfielder, projects 2018 WAR of a negative 0.7 for Castillo and 2.3 for Dyson. https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=27%2cd https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27%2cd
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I suspect much activity is taking place outside public scrutiny. Remember the days before the 24/7 news cycle when we might learn of a signing in the newspaper a day or two later.
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I'm not convinced of anything in these ongoing confidential negotiations.
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Please provide links to "direct information" from Dave Dombrowski, Scott Boras and/or J.D. Martinez. Michael Silverman's opinion is not direct information. J.D. Martinez may ultimately sign with the Red Sox ... or not. I'm just not convinced the Red Sox have made the best offer to date.