harmony

I hope the labor strife does not threaten the five Cactus League games I hope to see over three days early next month.

I suspect J.D. Martinez is not signing a one-year contract. Luxury tax issues should arise down the road if the Red Sox want to extend Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, Xander Bogaerts, Craig Kimbrel, Chris Sale and/or Drew Pomeranz. The big spenders are no longer limited to the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs. With revenue sharing a club with a current payroll less than half than the Boston payroll can afford big tickets.

Many teams have money, openings in the outfield and no luxury tax concerns. The Red Sox are at a disadvantage on the last two factors.

Perhaps other teams have exercised the appropriate discretion in confidential contract negotiations. Maybe other clubs aren't hounded by the media as much as the Red Sox are, which could help explain the dearth of leaks from other teams. Or not.

Well done!

ESPN columnist David Schoenfield on Thursday identified each team's "biggest remaining hole" and solution: http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/85233/the-biggest-remaining-hole-and-a-solution-for-almost-all-30-teams

Should the typical American worker bee feel downtrodden despite earning exponentially higher wages than most of the world's population? http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-17512040 It's all relative.

Unlike most business owners, MLB owners can prevent 90 percent of their player employees from leaving to work for a competitor. In doing so, the owners suppress the player wages (which is one reason why Mookie Betts earned roughly $2 million the last three years while producing what FanGraphs determined to be worth $145.3 million on the free agent market). In other industries, businesses fail on a regular basis. No MLB team is in danger of going out of business. If the Oakland Athletics or Tampa Bay Rays went on the market tomorrow, buyers would line up. I agree that our society has devoted too many resources to entertainment at the expense of more pressing needs.

From Thursday's column by FanRag columnist Jon Heyman: https://www.fanragsports.com/inside-baseball-mlb-notes-betts-arb-win-could-affect-others/

BP Boston columnist Matthew Kory looks ahead to next offseason: http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/26/next-winters-woes/

Does the arbitration decision impact how much the Red Sox are willing to offer J.D. Martinez? Were the Sox prepared to up their offer to Martinez if the arbiters chose the lower salary for Mookie Betts? The arbitration ruling likely impacts not only the 2018 budget but the 2019 and 2020 budgets as well as the Red Sox negotiate the luxury tax threshold.

That makes a difference of $3 million in the luxury tax calculation ... and provides a higher base for his final two arbitration seasons.

Bill James projected 32 home runs for Will Middlebrooks in 2014 (but Middlebrooks came up 30 home runs short): https://nesn.com/2014/02/bill-james-will-middlebrooks-primed-for-monster-season-with-red-sox/ I am confident that Rafael Devers will be better than Will Middlebrooks ... but what do I know?

Reminds me of the Will Middlebrooks hype. Except Rafael Devers is a better player.

After his 2017 call-up, Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers posted an OPS+ of 112 in 240 plate appearances. After his 2012 call-up, Red Sox third baseman Will Middlebrooks posted an OPS+ of 121 in 284 plate appearances. Devers does not present the red flags that Middlebrooks showed, but we should temper our expectations. Pulling a number out of the air without a sophisticated statistical analysis, I am 98 percent confident that Devers will have a better MLB career than Middlebrooks has. Although I expressed reservations about Middlebrooks after his rookie season, no one could have predicted how his career has played out to date. Devers was three years younger than Middlebrooks was at the time of their MLB debuts, but here are their rookie lines: RD 58 G, 240 PA, .284/.338/.482/.819, OPS+ 112, 34 R, 10 HR, 30 RBI, 3 SB WM 75 G, 288 PA, .288/.325/.509/.835, OPS+ 121, 34 R., 15 HR, 54 RBI, 4 SB RD BB% 7.9, K%, 23.8, ISO .198, BABIP .342, wRC+ 111, 0.9 fWAR, 1.3 bWAR WM BB% 4.5, K% 24.5, ISO .221, BABIP .335, wRC+ 122, 1.9 fWAR, 1.3 bWAR At third base: RD 507.2 innings, -1 defensive runs saved, -12.7 UZR/150 WM 606.2 innings, -3 defensive runs saved, 2.4 UZR/150

ESPN offered this take on Red Sox manager Alex Cora: http://www.espn.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/53880/alex-cora-believes-managers-and-players-can-be-bffs-but-will-that-work-in-boston

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2018/01/30/mookie-betts-red-sox-arbitration-case

The Red Sox and Mookie Betts reportedly have had (or are having) their arbitration hearing today:

I'm guilty of the same thing for the same reason.

In 2002 Pedro Martinez finished second in the Cy Young voting after posting an ERA of 2.26 in 30 starts, including an Opening Day start in which the Hall of Famer surrendered nine hits and eight runs (seven earned) in only three innings against the Toronto Blue Jays. Was the 2002 season a failure for Pedro Martinez because he experienced one dismal start? Scott Boras and the Boras Corporation have at least 30 clients, the vast majority of whom get satisfactory results.

An interesting take today from FanGraphs columnist Travis Sawchik: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/another-problem-with-this-quiet-offseason/

I'm hoping that come June everyone will have forgotten the excruciating offseason. Perhaps I'm naïve.

Using that logic, just because Pedro Martinez posted stellar numbers does not mean he was good at what he did.

That's akin to criticizing a wildly profitable stock portfolio because two of the 50 stocks tanked. Scott Boras can't guarantee individual results but his overall portfolio might be the best in the business.

For many years I've been fascinated with the valuation of MLB players. Many posters to this and other Red Sox message boards assume the Sox have made the best offer to J.D. Martinez. However, to date all we have are random leaks from unidentified sources that Martinez has multiple five-year offers and that the Red Sox have offered $125 million over five years. The reliability or unreliability of anonymous sources aside, from that scant information no one can logically conclude that the Red Sox have the best offer. The Red Sox may have the best offer. Or the Red Sox may not have the best offer. In the end J.D. Martinez will decide the matter by taking what the top free agent hitter views as the best offer.