harmony

I would add the Padres and Royals to my earlier list of Phillies, White Sox and Brewers as teams that can afford J.D. Martinez. The Red Sox have competition.

I nominate "desperate" as the most overused word of the Hot Stove season.

If Eric Hosmer has a seven-year, $147 million offer from the Kansas City Royals, as reported: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2018/01/03/eric-hosmer-offered-seven-year-147-million-deal-return-royals/998796001/ ... I suspect J.D. Martinez will get better offers. The loser of the apparent Hosmer bidding contest between the Royals and the Padres may turn their attention to Martinez.

I would think the opt-out would be treated the same as a team option because it is essentially a player option. The AAV for luxury tax purposes should be calculated only on the guaranteed portion of the contract. When an option is exercised -- a team option or a player option -- the AAV should be recalculated only for the period of that option.

J.D. Martinez has a five-year offer from the Red Sox, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2018/01/02/mlb-hot-stove-free-agents-luxury-tax/995440001/

As Jack Flap graciously provided in a recent post to this thread: https://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/differences-fwar-rwar/

I was a hard-core Denver Broncos fan for 22 years but lost interest in the NFL altogether after the Broncos won back-to-back Super Bowls in 1997-98. The university where I attended graduate school and law school won NCAA football championships after I left. The school nearly won national football titles when I was there but I never fully embraced the team because I prefer underdogs. Such as the Seattle Mariners. I moved to the Pacific Northwest in 1994 a few weeks before the strike ended that MLB season. The following year I had Mariner radio broadcasts on as background noise for weeks as I studied for an exam. The M's stormed from 13 games back on August 2 to earn their first-ever postseason berth before toppling the Yankees in a dramatic AL Divisional Series (I was rejuvenated by the extra-inning, series-winning hit by Edgar Martinez on my 40th birthday). The Mariners advanced to the postseason in four of my first seven years as an M's fan but have not been back since. Fortunately I do not have a success void yearning to be filled by the on-field success of my favorite team. I've probably written too much.

And miss the Mariners ending the postseason drought?

I posted that to a Mariner forum today.

Jay Bruce, Jose Bautista and Carlos Gonzalez? Front office typically don't share that information.

The offers from each side typically get better as negotiations progress but market changes could result in an offer getting worse from the recipient's perspective. A front office almost never negotiates for a single player in a vacuum; the team is always busy working concurrent plans.

Good example. Robinson Cano has posted 16.4 fWAR, valued at $129.5 million, in the first four years of his 10-year, $240 million contract with Seattle. More importantly, Cano has not led the Mariners to their first postseason berth since 2001. Seattle fans can only hope that Cano ages as well as David Ortiz did. https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/like-a-big-brother-robinson-cano-sad-to-see-david-ortiz-retire/

David Price.

I suspect every offer -- whether from the team or from the player -- has an expiration date: ie, this offer will remain open until X date. That leaves open the possibility that parties will resume negotiations down the road if the market changes. I don't doubt Scott Boras and the Red Sox have exchanged offers on J.D. Martinez. If Martinez signs with the Red Sox -- still a distinct possibility -- Boras will likely lower his current demands while the Red Sox enhance their best-to-date offer. Reviewing projected team payrolls, I wonder whether Martinez will sign with a team that has money to spend, a club such as the Phillies, White Sox or Brewers.

A Yankee blogger offers an odd pairing in this lengthy critique of the Seattle Mariners and Boston Red Sox: https://yanksgoyard.com/2017/12/30/yankees-avoid-missteps-redsox-mariners/

Off topic, but the Red Sox and my Seattle Mariners are well-represented on this Baseball Prospectus list of Top 50 "busted" prospects: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/36851/best-bp-2017-top-50-busted-prospects/

For all we know the Red Sox opening offer to J.D. Martinez could have been considered "an absolute joke." Remember the reported offer to Jon Lester. It's the nature of negotiations for one side to start high and the other side low.

If that is true teams that previously thought they could not afford J.D. Martinez might enter the bidding. A competent agent might cold-call teams to say the top offer is five years and $125 million. If another club or clubs decide to top that offer, the team with the original top offer may up its bid ... or not. The negotiations almost certainly will resolve before players are due to report to Spring Training.

Would the deal make sense with the addition of two 29-year-old former Red Sox draftees: San Francisco reliever Hunter Strickland and Boston outfielder Bryce Brentz? Strickland comes with four years of team control and Brentz with six years. The thin Giant bullpen probably can’t afford to lose Strickland. Four years of lefty reliever Josh Osich might be a likelier target. Or two years of southpaw Will Smith, who is projected with a 2018 salary of $2.5 million in his return after missing the 2017 season following Tommy John surgery.

The vesting option remains intact in a trade; Hanley Ramirez cannot be stripped of contract rights. My understanding is that if the Red Sox designate Ramirez for assignment, the 2019 vesting option is the responsibility of the team that signs Ramirez at the league minimum with the Red Sox picking up only the balance of his 2018 salary. I doubt the surplus value of Jackie Bradley Jr. over the surplus value of Jeff Samardzija is enough to persuade the Giants to take on Ramirez.

Think of it as three years of Jackie Bradley Jr. with a projected 2018 salary of $5.9 million and a Steamer projected 2018 WAR of 3.0 for three years of Jeff Samardzija at $57.5 million and a Steamer projected 2018 WAR of 3.5. Then think of one year of Hanley Ramirez at $22 million with a Steamer projected 2018 WAR of 1.0 (and the 2019 option vesting) for four years of Brandon Belt at $64 million with a Steamer projected 2018 WAR of 3.1. I can't see the Giants making that deal.

As I wrote last night on a Yankee forum: http://www.nyyfansforum.com/showthread.php/137667-The-197M-thread./page6 I doubt the San Francisco Giants will trade their core players, especially in a deal involving Hanley Ramirez. On the Yankee forum I've proposed a trade of Jacoby Ellsbury, Adam Warren and either Billy McKinney or Jake Cave for Mark Melancon and ... Pablo Sandoval! The Giants should insist on two years of Aaron Hicks instead of six years of either McKinney or Cave.

That's why I cited the Fielding Bible where 10 different individuals who follow baseball subjectively submit their votes, sometimes based on observation, sometimes on metrics and I suspect often on a combination of both.

Xander Bogaerts was not among the 21 shortstops who received votes in this year's Fielding Bible awards: http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp Bogaerts finished 11th among shortstops in 2015 but has been shut out in all other years: http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-voteTally2015.asp The Fielding Bible uses a panel of 10 baseball "experts" to rank defenders at each position: http://www.fieldingbible.com/the-panel.asp Each expert lists the his/its top 10 defenders at each position, with a player getting 10 points for being ranked No. 1 by an expert and 1 point for being ranked No. 10: http://www.fieldingbible.com/about-the-fielding-bible.asp

Baseball Reference provides these eerily similar 2018 projections for Xander Bogaerts and Seattle shortstop Jean Segura: XB 589 PA, 13 HR, .292/.354/.433/.786 JS 552 PA, 13 HR, .292/.340/.437/.777 https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bogaexa01.shtml https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/segurje01.shtml Over the past two seasons Bogaerts has posted 8.1 fWAR. valued at $54.3 million, in 305 games while Segura has posted 7.9 fWAR, valued at $53 million, in 278 games. Segura, who is two-and-half years older than Bogaerts, remains under team control for five seasons at $70 million, with a team option for a sixth year, while Bogaerts is under team control for two seasons with a projected 2018 salary of $7.6 million. Each faded in the second half of 2017: 1st Half XB 82 G, 351 PA, .303/.359/.447/.806 JS 60 G, 273 PA, .349/.390/.482/.872 2nd Half XB 66 G, 284 PA, .235/.324/.347/.671 JS 65 G, 293 PA, .253/.311/.375/.686 Nevertheless, Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects 2018 WAR of 3.5 for Bogaerts and 2.1 for Segura: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d