harmony

I would not be surprised if Dave Dombrowski has already made that offer and that J.D. Martinez has rejected it because the top free agent hitter has better offers. Absent collusion, the team that signs J.D. Martinez is likely to overpay. The Red Sox might not want to be that team.

With $48 million remaining on his contract, Mark Melancon's health is critical. If Melancon fails to rebound from the 2017 injuries, the contract remains under water. If Melancon has a great year the veteran may opt out with only two years and $28 million remaining on his contract (according to the Cot's spread sheet for the Giants). Sam Dyson, who led the Giants in saves last year, would be the San Francisco closer with competition from Hunter Strickland, Adam Warren and Will Smith, who is returning from an injury. Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter and 65 innings for each reliever, projects 2018 WAR of 2.6 for Aaron Hicks, 0.8 for Jacoby Ellsbury, 0.2 for Adam Warren and 0.6 for Mark Melancon. ZiPS projects 2018 WAR of 1.9 in 423 plate appearances for Hicks, 1.3 in 473 plate appearances for Ellsbury, 1.0 in 60 innings for Warren and 1.1 in 50 innings for Melancon. The Giants' Spring Training facility is located in Scottsdale, where Ellsbury reportedly lives in the offseason.

I've proposed: Three years of outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury at $68.5 million One year of righthander Adam Warren with a 2018 salary of $3.315 million Two years of center fielder Aaron Hicks with a 2018 salary of $2.825 million for Three years of reliever Mark Melancon at $48 million One or two years of DH / third baseman Pablo Sandoval at the league minimum Replacing Ellsbury’s contract with Melancon’s, the Yankees save roughly $7 million AAV over the next three seasons. Melancon and Warren swap bullpens while the Giants fill out their outfield with Ellsbury and Hicks. The Yanks also shed the combined 2018 salaries of $6.14 million for Warren and Hicks. The trade would leave the Yankees with an outfield of Brett Gardner, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge with Clint Frazier, Estevan Florial, Billy McKinney and Jake Cave waiting in the wings. Three years of Melancon could provide insurance against the potential departure of David Robertson, another converted closer, when the latter's contract expires after this season. Robertson and Melancon are right-handed relievers, born 11 days apart, selected by the Yankees in the 2006 draft (along with Dellin Betances). Pablo Sandoval, a wild card at the league minimum, is a DFA candidate but could serve as a DH option or play third base until the touted prospects are ready. With no designated hitter and the recent addition of Evan Longoria, the Giants have no room for Sandoval. Then again, the Yankees might not have room for Sandoval on their 40-man roster. The Giants would field a lineup of C Buster Posey, 1B Brandon Belt, 2B Joe Panik, SS Brandon Crawford, 3B Evan Longoria, LF Jacoby Ellsbury, CF Aaron Hicks and RF Hunter Pence to go with a shallow starting rotation impressively topped by Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. The keys, of course, are the off-setting salaries of Ellsbury and Melancon, who each have full no-trade clauses. I don’t know the status of Sandoval’s limited no-trade clause.

Jackie Bradley has posted 9.8 fWAR, valued at $77.9 million, over the past three seasons. FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project Bradley with 2018 WAR of 3.2 in 630 plate appearances and 3.0 in 571 plate appearances. Bradley remains a bargain at a 2018 salary of $6.1 million. Mookie Betts has posted 18.2 fWAR, valued at $145.3 million, over the past three seasons. FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project Betts with a 2018 WAR of 5.6 in 630 plate appearances and 5.7 in 653 plate appearances. Betts will remain a bargain.

May have already happened. The agency community is fairly small and insiders know more about ongoing negotiations than the general public does. For all I know J.D. Martinez has rejected a Red Sox offer and the parties have gone their separate ways. Or not.

Makes me wonder whether a trade is in place with a team that hopes to extend Jose Abreu. The return the White Sox could receive in an Abreu trade just increased significantly.

Dave Dombrowski would be remiss if he hasn't done that since the start of the offseason. Red Sox fans may be obsessed with J.D. Martinez but I suspect the Boston front office has been surveying the entire market all along.

White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu avoids arbitration by agreeing to a $13 million contract, nearly $5 million below the MLB Trade Rumors projection: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/white-sox-jose-abreu-avoid-arbitration.html I suspect the contract will attract renewed trade offers.

Four years at $24 million annually. Given their contracts, the Mariners would never trade Cano for David Price. Seattle can only hope that Cano ages as well as his buddy David Ortiz: https://nesn.com/2016/08/robinson-cano-on-big-brother-david-ortiz-every-player-would-love-to-have-his-career/

Good point. Absent an opt-out, David Price will be paid $32 million in 2022, the year the left-hander turns 37 in August.

Absent collusion, the team that signs J.D. Martinez will almost certainly overpay. The Red Sox may not want to be that team.

Has Scott Boras said anything about J.D. Martinez as a designated hitter since making these statements in mid-December? http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/12/jd_martinez_rumors_free_agent.html http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2017/12/scott_boras_praises_potential_red_sox_targets_jd_martinez

Many on this forum assume that the Red Sox have made the best offer to J.D. Martinez and that only a "late bidder" can top that offer. I suspect Martinez has received multiple offers and that the reported Red Sox offer is not the best (or perhaps even the second-best). Martinez and Boras, sensing that the Sox are under the most pressure to sign the top free agent hitter, may be holding out to see whether the Red Sox will top the best offer. Martinez may be waiting on the Red Sox as opposed to the Sox waiting on Martinez.

Negotiations are not open to the public. Free agents often sign with teams that were not speculated to be among the favorites. Carlos Santana signed last month with the Phillies and six years ago Prince Fielder signed with the Tigers after a private dance between Dave Dombrowski and Scott Boras. I would not be surprised if the current best offer was from another club and J.D. Martinez is waiting for the Red Sox to top it. The other club might be feeling good about now if its front office thinks the Sox won't budge from their current offer.

That assumes J.D. Martinez has not already rejected the reported Red Sox offer. If the Red Sox have not made the best offer to date J.D. Martinez and his agent may be waiting on the Sox to top the best offer.

FanGraphs columnist Travis Sawchik suggests that Scott Boras may need to adjust to the current market: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scott-boras-might-need-to-adjust/

https://www.fanragsports.com/heyman-red-sox-and-jd-martinez-remain-in-stalemate/

No one would describe as "below-market" the contract given Robinson Cano (who nonetheless has posted 16.4 fWAR, valued at $129.5 million in the first four seasons of his 10-year, $240 million contract with Seattle).

Jay Bruce got precisely what was projected by MLB Trade Rumors, which projected a six-year, $150 million contract for J.D. Martinez: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

Perhaps I should have written: not currently acceptable. Maybe J,.D. Martinez and Scott Boras are waiting for the Red Sox to top the current best offer from another club. Or not.

I suspect only J.D. Martinez and Scott Boras know what offers are on the table ... and apparently to date they haven't received an acceptable one.

On April 10, 2012, second baseman Ian Kinsler signed a five-year, $75 million extension with the Detroit Tigers (with a club option for a sixth year). On April 12, 2012, second baseman Brandon Phillips signed a six-year, $72.5 million extension with the Cincinnati Reds. On February 2, 2013, second baseman Aaron Hill signed a three-year, $35 million extension with the Arizona Diamondbacks. On August 8, 2013, second baseman Chase Utley signed a two-year, $27 million extension with the Philadelphia Phillies (with vesting options for three more years at $15 million annually). On December 12, 2013, second baseman Robinson Cano signed a 10-year, $240 million contract with the Seattle Mariners. On July 24, 2013, second baseman Dustin Pedroia signed an eight-year, $110 million extension with the Boston Red Sox. Here are the cumulative fWAR totals for second baseman 2011-13: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

I've never reported that "Over and over again we're being told that the Sox are [not] the highest bidder." I've never reported that "Over and over again we're being told that s specific team has made an offer to JD aside from the Sox." I am not a purveyor of fake news. Any speculation I provide is clearly identified as such.

You could be right.

Please provide a link to a source that reports that the Red Sox are the highest bidder.