harmony

If Blake Swihart can prove that he is healthy and productive, his trade value will go up. Until then potential trade partners are stuck with the uncertainty of a nearly 26-year-old defensively challenged catcher who posted a .187/.261/.284/.545 line in 250 minor league plate appearances last year.

Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for most hitters including Blake Swihart, projects Swihart with a 2018 WAR of a negative 1.3: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players= ZiPS projects Swihart with a 2018 WAR of 0.2 in 307 plate appearances while FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project Swihart with 2018 WAR of a negative 0.1 each in 70 and 50 plate appearances, respectively: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players= https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C However, Marcel has more optimistic 2018 projections for Swihart with a .265/.333/.413/.746 line in 211 plate appearances: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swihabl01.shtml Four years of that level of player is what a team gets in a salary dump.

Four years of Chris Archer, who is projected to post 4.3 WAR this season after posting 16.2 fWAR over the last four years, for five years of Andrew Benintendi, who is projected to post 3.0 WAR this season after posting 2.2 fWAR last year. I doubt the Rays would trade Archer for Benintendi straight up although the FanGraphs midseason trade value rankings had Archer at No. 16 and Benintendi at No. 26: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-1-to-10/

I don't know about Marcel but the FanGraphs WAR projections give the Mariners only a slim chance: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=11 The Mariners probably have a better chance than the Red Sox of exceeding expectations. I'm looking forward to heading down to Spring Training in a few weeks.

The Red Sox could expand the trade to include five years of Andrew Benintendi for four years of Chris Archer at $33.75 million. http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/tampa-bay-rays/ ... but the Rays would likely ask for more.

Well, Blake Swihart is out of options as well ...

Marcel projects Xander Bogaerts at .292/.354/.433/.786 with 13 home runs in 589 plate appearances: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bogaexa01.shtml ZiPS projects Bogaerts at .285/.347/.434/.781 with 16 home runs in 673 plate appearances: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

One columnist expects a bounce-back from right-hander Rick Porcello: https://thesporttank.com/2018/02/15/rick-porcello-redemption-tour-part-two/

What is the trade value of Brock Holt, a utility player who turns 30 years old in June after posting an fWAR of a negative 0.9 in 164 plate appearances last year? Bear with me, but Holt matches up with Seattle utility player Taylor Motter, who turns 29 years old in September after posting an fWAR of a negative 0.6 in 280 plate appearances last year. Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects 2018 WAR of 0.9 for Holt and 0.8 for Motter. ZiPS projects 2018 WAR of 0.6 in 385 plate appearances for Holt and 1.2 in 461 plate appearances for Motter. Motter lacks Holt's All Star pedigree but the most significant difference in trade value is that Holt is owed $2 million in the second of his three arbitration years while Motter is owed the league minimum in the second of his six years of team control. Motter and Holt each have one option remaining. If one WAR is worth about $8 million, Holt might represent value at $2 million, but my point is that most teams have players who can provide similar production at the league minimum salary. Motter is not guaranteed a slot on Seattle's Opening Day roster: https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-seattle-mariners/

The jilted suitor post. For what it's worth, last year Fenway Park ranked 26th in home runs surrendered while San Diego's Petco Park ranked 29th: http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2017/sort/HRFactor

I've read no report that Corey Dickerson has been placed on waivers. Dickerson reportedly has been designated for assignment, meaning the Rays have seven days to trade Dickerson, restore him to the Rays roster and place him on waivers. http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/designate-for-assignment

Perhaps the Tampa Bay Rays will trade Corey Dickerson to the Red Sox for Brian Johnson and Bryce Brentz, potential Jake Odorizzi and Dickerson replacements who are out of options despite six years of team control apiece. Dickerson could platoon with Hanley Ramirez at DH and/or rotate with Ramirez and Mitch Moreland at DH/first base. Or not.

$5.95 million

Eric Hosmer reportedly has agreed to an eight-year contract with the San Diego Padres:

FanRag columnist Jon Heyman does not list the Red Sox as the favorite to land any of the top nine remaining free agents: https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/inside-baseball-where-will-remaining-mlb-free-agents-go/

Kyle Jensen hit 30 home runs as a 28-year-old outfielder/first baseman at Triple A Reno in 2016 and after short stint in Japan is a nearly 30-year-old nonroster invitee of the San Francisco Giants: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=jensen001kyl https://aroundthefoghorn.com/2018/02/11/san-francisco-giants-2018-non-roster-invites/ Jorge Vazquez hit 32 home runs as a 29-year-old corner infielder for Triple A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in 2011 but never played at the MLB level: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=vazque002jor

David Ortiz was 27 years old when the hit more than 20 MLB home runs in a season for the first time: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ortizda01.shtml

Bill James and PECIOTA project Rafael Devers with 30 home runs (the former in 571 at-bats and the latter behind a pay wall that shields projected plate appearances). Marcel projects Devers with 13 home runs in 320 plate appearances, FanGraphs Depth Charts 21 home runs in 574 plate appearances, Steamer 19 home runs in 514 plate appearances and ZiPS 27 home runs in 611 plate appearances.

FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project Eduardo Nunez with a 2018 wRC+ of 102: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6848&position=3B/SS ... while ZiPS is bearish with a projected 2018 wRC+ of 93: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/ Nunez's 38-game sample with the Red Sox last year probably is not representative.

OPS+ is ballpark-adjusted. https://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/ops/ If one prefers wRC+, Nunez has a career wRC+ of 97, with a wRC+ of 100 with the Giants last year and 133 with the Red Sox: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6848&position=3B/SS

As a a defensively limited player with a career OPS+ of 98, Eduardo Nunez posted an OPS+ of 99 in 76 games with the San Francisco Giants last year before posting an OPS+ of 129 in 38 games with the Red Sox. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nunezed02.shtml I expect Nunez, who turns 31 years old in June, to produce near his career norms. Depending on his contract, Nunez could be a wise pickup.

Perhaps Tim Lincecum will set his sights higher.

Perhaps non-economic issues are at play.

MLB Trade Rumors looks at potential suitors for J.D. Martinez: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/what-other-teams-could-emerge-for-j-d-martinez.html#comments

Over the Monster columnist Matt Collins omitted Esteban Quiroz in his analysis of Red Sox position battles: https://www.overthemonster.com/2018/2/14/17010494/red-sox-spring-training-position-battles I corrected that in the comments below the column.