harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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Perhaps the Red Sox are reluctant to say "This is our highest offer." Or not.
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Perhaps the Red Sox are Plan B.
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In as much as I admire Scott Boras' skills, his representation of multiple top free agents probably is not good for the overall market.
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Todd Frazier may have had no interest in the Red Sox. Or vice versa. But the public is obsessed with lists: the top free agents, the top universities, the top travel destinations. In the eye of the public, the entity at the top of the list immediately becomes worth two or three times the worth of the entity ranked 10th when in fact the drop-off is less drastic.
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But Todd Frazier at third, Mitch Moreland at first, Rafael Devers at DH and Hanley Ramirez as a non-vesting backup would have improved the Red Sox defensively.
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My gut tells me Todd Frazier is undervalued ... I won't go beyond that. FanGraphs offers its take on the Todd Frazier signing: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mets-add-todd-frazier-at-bargain-price/ This offseason I have yet to cite the Marcel projections, which give Martinez this edge over Frazier in hitting: TF 555 PA, 71 R, 29 HR, 75 RBI, 8 SB, .230/.319/.462/.781 JM 496 PA, 73 R, 31 HR, 81 RBI, 3 SB, .290/.358/.570/.928 https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/frazito01.shtml https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martijd02.shtml
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Todd Frazier is projected to post 2.3 to 2.5 WAR in 2018 after posting 20.5 fWAR over the past six seasons: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=785&position=3B J.D. Martinez is projected to post 2.3 to 2.7 WAR in 2018 after posting 14.6 fWAR over the past four seasons: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6184&position=OF Frazier posted 14.8 fWAR over the past four seasons. It's interesting to compare the lines for Frazier and Martinez over the past four seasons: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=5,d Perhaps most remarkable is the 94-point difference in BABIP (.264 for Frazier and .358 for Martinez) rather than Frazier's narrow edge in home runs. Frazier, who is only 18 months older than Martinez, has remained healthier, averaging 154 games a year over the past five seasons.
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In a rare on-the-record comment about the J.D. Martinez situation, two weeks ago Red Sox chairman Tom Werner said: ""We are in active negotiations with J.D. Martinez. ... It takes two to make a deal." http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/01/boston_red_soxs_tom_werner_we.html ... which suggests certain interest on one side and uncertain interest on the other.
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Red Sox fans who have called J.D. Martinez "greedy" could be quieted if this year's top free agent hitter signs with another team for less than what the Sox offered. Just considering all the possibilities.
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https://www.isportsweb.com/2018/02/05/boston-needs-just-j-d-martinez-help-offense/ http://www.trifectanetworksports.com/boston-red-sox-truck-day-ready/ https://mainecampus.com/2018/02/why-the-red-sox-should-stay-put/
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Last year the Red Sox were projected to regress in a negative direction from their robust 2016 production while this year the Sox are projected to regress in a positive direction from their disappointing 2017 production.
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/03/meet-the-mlbtr-writing-team.html
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On the topic of lapdogs, did Logan Morrison's agent write that piece for MLB Trade Rumors?
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For what it's worth, Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects 2018 WAR of 2.4 for Todd Frazier, 1.8 for Lucas Duda and 1.3 for Logan Morrison: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27%2cd ... although the wRC+ projections are 101 for Frazier, 115 for Duda and 107 for Morrison.
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ESPN columnist Buster Olney poses Cold Stove questions for the players union: http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/18152/olney-is-the-union-ready-for-a-spring-training-showdown
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A CBS Sportsline columnist suggests Todd Frazier for the Red Sox: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/why-todd-frazier-a-possible-target-for-the-yankees-also-makes-sense-for-the-red-sox/
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For all we know J.D. Martinez may be far closer to signing today than he was a week ago. And, of course, at some point Martinez will sign ... I don't see him sitting out the season or even Opening Day.
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Teams probably don't see an "impasse in negotiations" knowing that J.D. Martinez will sign at some point.
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Should that cut both ways? While some fans get angry I suspect J.D. Martinez and Scott Boras are having cordial negotiations with several teams.
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Are you suggesting that Rafael Devers is free this offseason to sign with any of the 30 MLB teams? I raised the monopoly issue in the context of the vast majority of players who fail to reach six years of MLB service. I broached the possibility of making every player a free agent empowered to bargain with all 30 MLB organizations. When I graduated from college with a journalism degree 40+ years ago I was free to join any newspaper that would hire me (newspapers were still hiring back then:(). When I went into higher education I was free to accept the best of several offers. When I joined my current firm nearly 22 years ago I was free to leave for a better offer (which I did two years later for 11 months before deciding to return). Most professional baseball players lack that freedom to choose their employers in their chosen field.
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Because of its market dominance, Major League Baseball is a virtual monopoly that has been granted an exemption from antitrust laws. https://news.stanford.edu/2015/02/24/antitrust-baseball-court-022415/ The take-it-or-leave-it approach is a common tactic of a monopoly because competitors have been forced out of the market. I suspect Major League Baseball will lose its antitrust exemption if MLB employs noncompetitive practices.
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The rise of advanced metrics has coincided with the fall of albatross contracts. Two years ago seven players landed nine-figure contracts but a year ago only one player did.
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That's the option that the vast majority of players lack ... they cannot go to another employer in their field seeking a better offer. Over the past three seasons Mookie Betts has been paid roughly $2 million while posting 18.1 fWAR, valued at $146.3 million: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13611&position=OF#value To date Eduardo Rodriguez earned about $1.1 million while posting 5.0 fWAR, valued at $39.9 million. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13164&position=P#value That's what I mean when I write that non-free agents tend to be underpaid.
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http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/
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As every front office embraces advanced metrics, I suspect there is a general consensus on how much a free agent is worth. Teams don't want to pay the free agent a penny more than he is worth. But that ignores the fact that teams are permitted to underpay the vast majority of players who fall short of six years of MLB service. Should the owners have it both ways, underpaying most players while paying the free agent only what he is worth?