harmony

Many on this forum assume that the Red Sox have made the best offer to J.D. Martinez and that only a "late bidder" can top that offer. I suspect Martinez has received multiple offers and that the reported Red Sox offer is not the best (or perhaps even the second-best). Martinez and Boras, sensing that the Sox are under the most pressure to sign the top free agent hitter, may be holding out to see whether the Red Sox will top the best offer. Martinez may be waiting on the Red Sox as opposed to the Sox waiting on Martinez.

Negotiations are not open to the public. Free agents often sign with teams that were not speculated to be among the favorites. Carlos Santana signed last month with the Phillies and six years ago Prince Fielder signed with the Tigers after a private dance between Dave Dombrowski and Scott Boras. I would not be surprised if the current best offer was from another club and J.D. Martinez is waiting for the Red Sox to top it. The other club might be feeling good about now if its front office thinks the Sox won't budge from their current offer.

That assumes J.D. Martinez has not already rejected the reported Red Sox offer. If the Red Sox have not made the best offer to date J.D. Martinez and his agent may be waiting on the Sox to top the best offer.

FanGraphs columnist Travis Sawchik suggests that Scott Boras may need to adjust to the current market: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scott-boras-might-need-to-adjust/

https://www.fanragsports.com/heyman-red-sox-and-jd-martinez-remain-in-stalemate/

No one would describe as "below-market" the contract given Robinson Cano (who nonetheless has posted 16.4 fWAR, valued at $129.5 million in the first four seasons of his 10-year, $240 million contract with Seattle).

Jay Bruce got precisely what was projected by MLB Trade Rumors, which projected a six-year, $150 million contract for J.D. Martinez: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

Perhaps I should have written: not currently acceptable. Maybe J,.D. Martinez and Scott Boras are waiting for the Red Sox to top the current best offer from another club. Or not.

I suspect only J.D. Martinez and Scott Boras know what offers are on the table ... and apparently to date they haven't received an acceptable one.

On April 10, 2012, second baseman Ian Kinsler signed a five-year, $75 million extension with the Detroit Tigers (with a club option for a sixth year). On April 12, 2012, second baseman Brandon Phillips signed a six-year, $72.5 million extension with the Cincinnati Reds. On February 2, 2013, second baseman Aaron Hill signed a three-year, $35 million extension with the Arizona Diamondbacks. On August 8, 2013, second baseman Chase Utley signed a two-year, $27 million extension with the Philadelphia Phillies (with vesting options for three more years at $15 million annually). On December 12, 2013, second baseman Robinson Cano signed a 10-year, $240 million contract with the Seattle Mariners. On July 24, 2013, second baseman Dustin Pedroia signed an eight-year, $110 million extension with the Boston Red Sox. Here are the cumulative fWAR totals for second baseman 2011-13: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

I've never reported that "Over and over again we're being told that the Sox are [not] the highest bidder." I've never reported that "Over and over again we're being told that s specific team has made an offer to JD aside from the Sox." I am not a purveyor of fake news. Any speculation I provide is clearly identified as such.

You could be right.

Please provide a link to a source that reports that the Red Sox are the highest bidder.

I'm not a betting person but in the J.D. Martinez sweepstakes I might bet on the field over the Red Sox signing the reputed top free agent hitter. Thoughts?

Even if the Red Sox don't have the current best offer? I don't know the current offers, but that could be a reasonable strategy for the Red Sox. As an unrelated side note, a blogger disputes the "cliff": https://www.overthemonster.com/2018/1/10/16871560/red-sox-two-year-window-myth-betts-sale-benintendi-devers-bogaerts

Perhaps the Red Sox have walked away after J.D. Martinez rejected their best offer. The bidding may be down to two or more clubs that don't include the Red Sox. Or not.

I'm not convinced that anyone said J.D. Martinez wants to play outfield and not designated hitter. The MLB Trade Rumors aggregate story on December 15 provided mixed signals: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/j-d-martinez-rumors-wednesday.html ... and I can no longer access the archived Boston Herald column that suggested Martinez "is informing potential suitors that he would prefer to sign as an outfielder." I suspect the bidding did not stop after that report three weeks ago. Just last Friday Jon Heyman reported (without attribution) that Martinez has other five-year offers: https://www.fanragsports.com/inside-baseball-where-top-10-mlb-free-agents-stand-in-slow-market/ Bids are secret in that a vast majority are withheld from the media and public. The Hot Stove may be slow but it will interesting to see how the offseason plays out.

Do the Red Sox even have the current best offer for J.D. Martinez? What if another team has the current best offer and Martinez is waiting for the Red Sox (or another club) to top it?

What if Scott Boras is waiting for Red Sox to top another team's current top bid for J.D. Martinez?

In 2015 Carson Smith's average fastball of 92.9 mph ranked 12th on the Seattle pitching staff: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=4&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=11&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d In 2017 Smith's average fastball of 92.0 mph ranked 15th on the Red Sox: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=4&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d

Most teams hype their acquisitions. The Mariners tried to hype Wade Miley but many critical M's fans weren't buying it.

Carson Smith never threw smoke as his average fastball of 92.9 mph was just that ... average. Smith relied heavily on his slider, perhaps to his physical detriment.

A wide range of outcomes are possible for Carson Smith, a 28-year-old righthander with a single, but impressive, full MLB season three years ago. At the time the trade was celebrated as a coup for the Red Sox but the deal has yet to pay noteworthy dividends. I hope Carson Smith has a great career after injuries limited the reliever to 9.1 MLB innings (18 innings overall) the past two seasons.

Feel free to remove from the comparison Ariel Miranda's 0.1 fWAR and 1.9 bWAR.

I suspect the Mariners would prefer five years of Ariel Miranda to three years of Carson Smith and four years of Roenis Elias (even after Seattle's early lead in WAR production). Seattle waived Jonathan Aro in November. Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts project Carson Smith with a 2018 ERA of 3.81 in 65 innings for 0.8 and 0.5 WAR, respectively: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13172&position=P Just as the Red Sox traded high on Wade Miley, the Mariners probably traded high on Carson Smith. A good trade should benefit each team.