harmony

Welcome back, tom-uk (one of my fiercest critics).

If the Red Sox fall out of contention in either of the next two years the Sox have veteran pieces who can be flipped to replenish the farm.

The $22 million AAV is nice for the luxury tax calculation but my understanding is that if J.D. Martinez opts out after two seasons the combined $6 million difference in the two-year AAV of $25 million will be added to the 2020 luxury tax calculation when the Red Sox will be looking to re-sign or replace Chris Sale, Martinez, Xander Bogaerts and Rick Porcello. That's where the crunch may come.

Mitch Moreland is guaranteed $13 million, plus performance bonuses, over the next two seasons and as a recently signed free agent cannot be traded without his consent until June 15. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/boston-red-sox/

On the topic of defensively limited right-handed hitters best-suited for the designated hitter slot … J.D. Martinez is five months younger today than Hanley Ramirez was when the Red Sox signed the latter to a four-year, $88 million contract with a vesting option for a another year (that coincidentally would bring the total to $110 million over five years). Martinez has posted 6.0 bWAR and 5.6 fWAR in 239 games over the past two seasons while Ramirez had posted 8.9 bWAR and 8.5 fWAR in 214 games in the two seasons before he signed with Boston. In the 2014-15 offseason MLB Trade Rumors had projected Ramirez with a six-year, $132 million contract while this year MLB Trade Rumors projected Martinez with a six-year, $150 million contract. You never know how these free agent contracts will play out.

Tony Watson has signed with the San Francisco Giants:

I agree with Bellhorn that the Sox are likely done with major transactions. I doubt the Red Sox want to break up their current outfield.

The opt-outs work to the player's advantage (although the front-loaded nature of the rumored contract temporarily helps the Sox in the luxury tax calculation).

With the touted offseasons of the Yankees and Red Sox, could the AL East represent the American League in the World Series for only the second time in nine years?

I wonder whether the Red Sox offered Eduardo Nunez a contract after each of the first two workouts and, if so, whether the final contract was better, worse or the same as the earlier offers. Again, I hope Nunez returns to full health.

His health may have driven down the price of the Eduardo Nunez deal. The Red Sox reportedly held workouts for Nunez in December and again in February. MassLive reports that at each workout Nunez "wasn’t 100 percent" in his return from the knee injury. http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/02/eduardo_nunez_signs_with_red_s.html After a third workout last week Nunez signed the deal that fell far short of the two-year, $14 million contract projected by MLB Trade Rumors: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html We can all hope that Nunez returns in good health.

That is within the realm of possibility. It is also within the realm of possibility that Seattle left fielder Ben Gamel will outproduce Boston left fielder Andrew Benintendi this year (as Gamel did for half a season last year). But I wouldn't bet on it. My point is that Benintendi is a less-proven commodity than Chris Archer.

Does that mean you discard Marcel's Blake Swihart projection of a .265/.333/.413/.746 line in 211 plate appearances? Just nonsense?

If Blake Swihart can prove that he is healthy and productive, his trade value will go up. Until then potential trade partners are stuck with the uncertainty of a nearly 26-year-old defensively challenged catcher who posted a .187/.261/.284/.545 line in 250 minor league plate appearances last year.

Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for most hitters including Blake Swihart, projects Swihart with a 2018 WAR of a negative 1.3: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players= ZiPS projects Swihart with a 2018 WAR of 0.2 in 307 plate appearances while FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project Swihart with 2018 WAR of a negative 0.1 each in 70 and 50 plate appearances, respectively: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players= https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C However, Marcel has more optimistic 2018 projections for Swihart with a .265/.333/.413/.746 line in 211 plate appearances: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swihabl01.shtml Four years of that level of player is what a team gets in a salary dump.

Four years of Chris Archer, who is projected to post 4.3 WAR this season after posting 16.2 fWAR over the last four years, for five years of Andrew Benintendi, who is projected to post 3.0 WAR this season after posting 2.2 fWAR last year. I doubt the Rays would trade Archer for Benintendi straight up although the FanGraphs midseason trade value rankings had Archer at No. 16 and Benintendi at No. 26: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-1-to-10/

I don't know about Marcel but the FanGraphs WAR projections give the Mariners only a slim chance: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=11 The Mariners probably have a better chance than the Red Sox of exceeding expectations. I'm looking forward to heading down to Spring Training in a few weeks.

The Red Sox could expand the trade to include five years of Andrew Benintendi for four years of Chris Archer at $33.75 million. http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/tampa-bay-rays/ ... but the Rays would likely ask for more.

Well, Blake Swihart is out of options as well ...

Marcel projects Xander Bogaerts at .292/.354/.433/.786 with 13 home runs in 589 plate appearances: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bogaexa01.shtml ZiPS projects Bogaerts at .285/.347/.434/.781 with 16 home runs in 673 plate appearances: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

One columnist expects a bounce-back from right-hander Rick Porcello: https://thesporttank.com/2018/02/15/rick-porcello-redemption-tour-part-two/

What is the trade value of Brock Holt, a utility player who turns 30 years old in June after posting an fWAR of a negative 0.9 in 164 plate appearances last year? Bear with me, but Holt matches up with Seattle utility player Taylor Motter, who turns 29 years old in September after posting an fWAR of a negative 0.6 in 280 plate appearances last year. Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects 2018 WAR of 0.9 for Holt and 0.8 for Motter. ZiPS projects 2018 WAR of 0.6 in 385 plate appearances for Holt and 1.2 in 461 plate appearances for Motter. Motter lacks Holt's All Star pedigree but the most significant difference in trade value is that Holt is owed $2 million in the second of his three arbitration years while Motter is owed the league minimum in the second of his six years of team control. Motter and Holt each have one option remaining. If one WAR is worth about $8 million, Holt might represent value at $2 million, but my point is that most teams have players who can provide similar production at the league minimum salary. Motter is not guaranteed a slot on Seattle's Opening Day roster: https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-seattle-mariners/

The jilted suitor post. For what it's worth, last year Fenway Park ranked 26th in home runs surrendered while San Diego's Petco Park ranked 29th: http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2017/sort/HRFactor

I've read no report that Corey Dickerson has been placed on waivers. Dickerson reportedly has been designated for assignment, meaning the Rays have seven days to trade Dickerson, restore him to the Rays roster and place him on waivers. http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/designate-for-assignment

Perhaps the Tampa Bay Rays will trade Corey Dickerson to the Red Sox for Brian Johnson and Bryce Brentz, potential Jake Odorizzi and Dickerson replacements who are out of options despite six years of team control apiece. Dickerson could platoon with Hanley Ramirez at DH and/or rotate with Ramirez and Mitch Moreland at DH/first base. Or not.