harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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In 2002 Pedro Martinez finished second in the Cy Young voting after posting an ERA of 2.26 in 30 starts, including an Opening Day start in which the Hall of Famer surrendered nine hits and eight runs (seven earned) in only three innings against the Toronto Blue Jays. Was the 2002 season a failure for Pedro Martinez because he experienced one dismal start? Scott Boras and the Boras Corporation have at least 30 clients, the vast majority of whom get satisfactory results.
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An interesting take today from FanGraphs columnist Travis Sawchik: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/another-problem-with-this-quiet-offseason/
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I'm hoping that come June everyone will have forgotten the excruciating offseason. Perhaps I'm naïve.
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Using that logic, just because Pedro Martinez posted stellar numbers does not mean he was good at what he did.
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That's akin to criticizing a wildly profitable stock portfolio because two of the 50 stocks tanked. Scott Boras can't guarantee individual results but his overall portfolio might be the best in the business.
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For many years I've been fascinated with the valuation of MLB players. Many posters to this and other Red Sox message boards assume the Sox have made the best offer to J.D. Martinez. However, to date all we have are random leaks from unidentified sources that Martinez has multiple five-year offers and that the Red Sox have offered $125 million over five years. The reliability or unreliability of anonymous sources aside, from that scant information no one can logically conclude that the Red Sox have the best offer. The Red Sox may have the best offer. Or the Red Sox may not have the best offer. In the end J.D. Martinez will decide the matter by taking what the top free agent hitter views as the best offer.
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Or that the Red Sox owners can't feed their families despite the club's annual revenue of $434 million, which is more than the $380 million paid to buy the club in 2002: https://www.forbes.com/teams/boston-red-sox/ The team purchased for $380 million in 2002 was valued last April at $2.7 billion.
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J.D. Martinez is "apparently very reluctant to meet" the demands of the offering teams. It's a two-way street. A club that had hoped to find value in Lorenzo Cain and another free agent might now consolidate its resources in pursuit of Martinez. Or not.
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I'm not intent on anything. I simply question fans who assume the Red Sox have made the best offer to date. Perhaps the Sox indeed have the best offer but I can't conclude that based on a few random leaks that fail to provide the full picture. As I've written before, absent collusion, the team that signs J.D. Martinez is likely to overpay. The Red Sox may not want to be that team.
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What if Scott Boras early in the offseason approached multiple teams that indicated they would be interested in J.D. Martinez only if they failed in their bid to land Lorenzo Cain, whom many viewed as a better value? Are those clubs back in the competition for Martinez? Is that one factor that has held up the process? I have questions but apparently no answers.
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After accumulating $3.557 million in international pool space during their unsuccessful pursuit of Shonei Ohtani, the Seattle Mariners now have about $2 million remaining following trades for Anthony Misiewicz and Shawn Armstrong. How much international pool space would be needed for Seattle to land lefthander Brian Johnson?
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Earlier this month FanRag columnist Jon Heyman reported that J.D. Martinez had multiple five-year offers: https://www.fanragsports.com/inside-baseball-where-top-10-mlb-free-agents-stand-in-slow-market/ We'll learn soon enough ... but not soon enough.
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Theoretically, the Red Sox would need to beat the best offer. If another club has the current best offer, the Red Sox theoretically would need to top that offer (or drop out). If the Red Sox have the current best offer, J.D. Martinez and Scott Boras might be looking for a team to top that offer. It should work out in the end.
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Also worth noting is that J.D. Martinez, unlike Lorenzo Cain, does not require the signing club to surrender a draft pick as compensation.
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Absent collusion, the team that lands J.D. Martinez is likely to overpay. As I've written repeatedly, the Red Sox may not want to be that team.
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If the Milwaukee Brewers could sign Lorenzo Cain to a five-year contract I would not be surprised if another team has already offered J.D. Martinez six years. I suspect multiple teams are pursuing Martinez. Who would have thought the small-market Brewers -- with an existing outfield Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun and Keon Broxton -- would acquire Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain?
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Boston Herald columnist Michael Silverman suggests that if Lorenzo Cain, who is 16 months older than J.D. Martinez, can land a five-year contract, the Red Sox should offer Martinez more than five years: http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2018/01/silverman_lorenzo_cain_move_affects_red_sox_pursuit_of_jd_martinez
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Unsubstantiated rumor of a three-way trade involving the Yankees, Orioles and Diamondbacks: https://twitter.com/yanksbreaking ... with nothing better to write about.
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Scott Boras and Dave Dombrowski are professionals who have dealt with each other in the past. Either side can politely give the opposing negotiator a deadline on an offer. Boras could be the party saying "We need to have an answer by _____ or we're moving on." The Red Sox and J.D. Martinez may not have appealing alternatives ... or maybe each does. We don't know.
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Friday's Hot Stove roundup from FanRag columnist Jon Heyman: https://www.fanragsports.com/inside-baseball-mlb-notes-are-the-brewers-done-dealing/
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I doubt Scott Boras is inclined to play along with amateurs. Perhaps the Red Sox are prepared to go with the lineup projected at Roster Resource: RF Betts ® LF Benintendi (L) SS Bogaerts ® 1B Moreland (L) DH Ramirez ® 3B Devers (L) CF Bradley (L) C Vazquez ® 2B Hernandez (L) https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-boston-red-sox/
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And Scott Boras, with a better offer already in hand (or not), would laugh.
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With a 2017 fWAR of 1.5 and projected 2018 WAR of 1.5 and 1.7, Ryan Braun lacks surplus value with three years and $57 million remaining on his contract. What could Hanley Ramirez return in a trade? FanGraphs Depth Charts project 2018 WAR of 1.7 in 595 plate appearances for Braun and 1.3 in 595 plate appearances for Ramirez. Braun has three years and $57 million remaining on his contract while Ramirez, who is five weeks younger than Braun, has a 2018 salary of $22 million with a vesting option for $22 million in 2019. Neither contract is appealing but the Ramirez contract is not much worse than the Braun contract with its two additional years.
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I suspect Hanley Ramirez with his $22 million salary would be a deal-breaker for the Milwaukee Brewers (or any National League team).
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With a 2017 fWAR of 1.5 and projected 2018 WAR of 1.5 and 1.7, Ryan Braun lacks surplus value with three years and $57 million (or $60 million) remaining on his contract.