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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. harmony
    As of Thursday morning FanGraphs gave the Red Sox a 59.1 percent of advancing to the postseason and a 4.9 percent chance of winning the World Series: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds ... while Baseball Reference gave the Sox a 20.1 percent chance of advancing to the postseason and a 0.7 percent chance of winning the World Series: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2025-playoff-odds.shtml Which points up the difficulties of early-season projections.
  2. harmony
    We're dealing with small samples, but the Seattle Mariners are now second in the league with an OPS+ of 117 and 12th in the league with an ERA+ of 96: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2025.shtml The Red Sox are fourth in OPS+ at 109 and eighth in ERA+ at 107.
  3. harmony
    This will be Bryce Miller's first start at Fenway Park but the Red Sox have roughed up the righthander in two games at Seattle: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-mariners/2023/08/01/717167/final/box https://www.mlb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-mariners/2024/03/31/745279/final/box Brayan Bello is 3-0 with a 3.63 ERA in four career starts against the Seattle Mariners.
  4. harmony
    As of Tuesday morning, FanGraphs gave the Red Sox and Seattle Mariners 58.5 percent and 68.8 percent chances of advancing to the postseason: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds As of Tuesday morning, Baseball Reference gave the Sox and Mariners 16.6 percent and 88.5 percent chances of advancing to the postseason: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2025-playoff-odds.shtml
  5. harmony
    Through 22 games the Mariners have averaged 3.62 runs per game at home and 5.67 runs per game on the road. Seattle ranks fifth in the American League, 13th overall, in runs scored per game despite playing 13 of its first 22 games at T-Mobile Park: https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/runs-per-game The Mariners have posted an OPS+ of 115, third in the league, and an ERA+ of 99, 11th in the AL: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2025.shtml
  6. harmony
    With the Patriots' Day win, the Red Sox moved into a virtual tie with their next opponent, the Seattle Mariners, who lead the Sox only by percentage points: https://www.mlb.com/standings/league
  7. harmony
    At this precise moment, FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a 59.0 percent chance of advancing to the postseason: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds ... while Baseball Reference gives the Sox a 16.6 percent chance of advancing to the postseason: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2025-playoff-odds.shtml Projections are tough.😉
  8. harmony
    Rafael Devers (-$15.5 millon) and Masataka Yoshida (-$42.5 million) have a combined negative trade value of a negative $58 million, according to Baseball Trade Values. BTV assigns Matt Shaw a trade value of $39.2 million.
  9. harmony
    In the small sample to date, this season the Red Sox have posted an OPS+ 100 (ninth in the league) and an ERA+ of 102 (eighth in AL): https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2025.shtml
  10. harmony
    The Athletic's poll of baseball executives ranked the Red Sox front office 18th in MLB: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6273808/2025/04/16/mlb-top-10-front-offices-executive-vote/ Subscription required.
  11. harmony
    But some untradeable players. Baseball Trade Values assigns Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida a combined negative value of $109.1 millon while negative trade values are assigned to six other Red Sox players, including Rafael Devers at a negative $15.5 million.
  12. harmony
    During the offseason, the Red Sox reportedly would not trade Triston Casas for Seattle righthander Luis Castillo, who has an ERA of 2.12 and an ERA+ of 170 in three starts this year. Casas may still turn it around.
  13. harmony
    The Red Sox are obligated to pay Trevor Story through 2027 (and Masataka Yoshida through 2027 and Rafael Devers through 2033). A combined 15 years at substantial salaries. The Sox assumed significant risks. Baseball Trade Values assigns the trio a combined value of a negative $120 million.
  14. harmony
    In the past 10 days Baseball Trade Values has downgraded Masataka Yoshida's trade value to a negative $38.6 million: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?q=yoshida&page=1 Writing from Tokyo: Would the Orix Buffaloes take back Yoshida?
  15. harmony
    Why didn't the Rangers bring in a left-hander to face Wilyer Abreu with the game on the line? Perhaps because Hoby Milner, the only lefthanded option in the Texas bullpen, was less effective last year against lefthanded hitters than against righthanded hitters.
  16. harmony
    After trailing the Mariners in each of the past three seasons by a combined 27 games, the Red Sox may well be closing the gap. Or not.😉
  17. harmony
    Columnist Keith Law at The Athletic picks the Red Sox to win the AL East with the league's best record: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6228542/2025/03/26/mlb-predictions-2025-season/ Law has the Red Sox topping the Seattle Mariners in the American League Championship Series before losing to the Atlanta Braves in the World Series. Subscription required.
  18. harmony
    Columnist Eno Sarris at The Athletic makes the bold prediction that the Red Sox will advance to the 2025 World Series: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6191684/2025/03/25/sarris-ten-bold-predictions-2025-mlb-season/ Subscription required.
  19. harmony
    An extension would be risky for a 25-year-old left-hander with only one year of experience as a starter. Seventeen months ago Baseball Trade Values assigned Garrett Crochet a negative value in this proposed trade to Seattle: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/146753 Crochet's value skyrocketed after he averaged 4.56 innings in 32 starts over his impressive 2024 season. In a market that increasingly values bulk, will Crochet provide the bulk to justify a big contract?
  20. harmony
    What a horrible trade proposal from a Seattle perspective. The Mariners would be highly unlikely to trade Bryce Miller and take on salary. Seattle already has three years of baseball's top catcher and its own Top 10 catching prospect.
  21. harmony
    Regardless of hjis playing time, these eight wRC+ projections for Trevor Story range from 81 to 93: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/trevor-story/12564/stats?position=SS#dashboard
  22. harmony
    Readers are free to interpret (or ignore) the rankings provided by FanGraphs and The Fielding Bible.
  23. harmony
    The Red Sox have added Gold Glove winner Alex Bregman to a lineup that last year ranked fourth in the American League (sixth overall) in Defensive Runs Saved, according to The Fielding Bible: https://archive.fieldingbible.com/TeamDefensiveRunsSaved
  24. harmony
    FanGraphs ranks the Red Sox 12th in the American League (20th overall) in projected position player WAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3
  25. harmony
    A healthy Kutter Crawford carries great value. An unhealthy Kutter Crawford does not.
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