harmony

The Red Sox are obligated to pay Trevor Story through 2027 (and Masataka Yoshida through 2027 and Rafael Devers through 2033). A combined 15 years at substantial salaries. The Sox assumed significant risks. Baseball Trade Values assigns the trio a combined value of a negative $120 million.

In the past 10 days Baseball Trade Values has downgraded Masataka Yoshida's trade value to a negative $38.6 million: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?q=yoshida&page=1 Writing from Tokyo: Would the Orix Buffaloes take back Yoshida?

Why didn't the Rangers bring in a left-hander to face Wilyer Abreu with the game on the line? Perhaps because Hoby Milner, the only lefthanded option in the Texas bullpen, was less effective last year against lefthanded hitters than against righthanded hitters.

After trailing the Mariners in each of the past three seasons by a combined 27 games, the Red Sox may well be closing the gap. Or not.😉

Columnist Keith Law at The Athletic picks the Red Sox to win the AL East with the league's best record: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6228542/2025/03/26/mlb-predictions-2025-season/ Law has the Red Sox topping the Seattle Mariners in the American League Championship Series before losing to the Atlanta Braves in the World Series. Subscription required.

Columnist Eno Sarris at The Athletic makes the bold prediction that the Red Sox will advance to the 2025 World Series: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6191684/2025/03/25/sarris-ten-bold-predictions-2025-mlb-season/ Subscription required.

An extension would be risky for a 25-year-old left-hander with only one year of experience as a starter. Seventeen months ago Baseball Trade Values assigned Garrett Crochet a negative value in this proposed trade to Seattle: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/146753 Crochet's value skyrocketed after he averaged 4.56 innings in 32 starts over his impressive 2024 season. In a market that increasingly values bulk, will Crochet provide the bulk to justify a big contract?

What a horrible trade proposal from a Seattle perspective. The Mariners would be highly unlikely to trade Bryce Miller and take on salary. Seattle already has three years of baseball's top catcher and its own Top 10 catching prospect.

Regardless of hjis playing time, these eight wRC+ projections for Trevor Story range from 81 to 93: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/trevor-story/12564/stats?position=SS#dashboard

Readers are free to interpret (or ignore) the rankings provided by FanGraphs and The Fielding Bible.

The Red Sox have added Gold Glove winner Alex Bregman to a lineup that last year ranked fourth in the American League (sixth overall) in Defensive Runs Saved, according to The Fielding Bible: https://archive.fieldingbible.com/TeamDefensiveRunsSaved

FanGraphs ranks the Red Sox 12th in the American League (20th overall) in projected position player WAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

A healthy Kutter Crawford carries great value. An unhealthy Kutter Crawford does not.

Seattle would not. The Mariners are highly unlikely to trade Luis Castillo (and have been unlikely to trade the veteran right-hander all offseason). Baseball Trade Values assigns Hayden Mullins a surplus value of only $2.1 million while assigning Lucas Giolito and Ceddanne Rafaela negative trade values of $7.1 million and $6 million, respectively. The proposed Red Sox package has a net BTV value of a negative $11 million, or $18.1 million shy of Castillo's surplus $7.1 million value assigned at BTV. The Mariners probably place an even higher value on Castillo, who is expected to again be a mainstay in the productive Seattle rotation.

Certainly not ... and Marcelo Mayer might not be.

Injuries aside, Marcelo Mayer may be a hard one to project; Last year Mayer rode a .367 BABIP enroute to a wRC+ of 142 in 335 plate appearances at Double A Portland. In 2023 Mayer endured a .277 BABIP enroute to a wRC+ of 99 in 354 plate appearances across High A and Double A. FanGraphs' eight MLB projection systems have Mayer with a 2025 wRC+ between 83 and 90 in limited plate appearances: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcelo-mayer/sa3017114/stats?position=SS#dashboard The ZiPS three-year projections have Mayer with 1.1, 1.2 and 1.4 WAR in 81, 85 and 89 games over his age 22, 23 and 24 seasons in 2025, 2026 and 2027: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcelo-mayer/sa3017114/stats?position=SS#zips-3-year-projections In 25 MLB drafts this century, only five overall No, 4 draft picks have accumulated more than 5 bWAR so far in their careers: https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.fcgi?overall_pick=4&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_jc=0

Marcelo Mayer has fallen off most Top 10 prospect lists after making brief appearances there two years ago: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mayer-000mar Keith Law at The Athletic lists Mayer as the No, 28 prospect: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6078454/2025/01/27/top-100-mlb-prospects-2025-keith-law/ Mayer ultimately may have a productive MLB career but his stock apparently has fallen.

If Trevor Story is cooked, could Alex Bregman be the Red Sox shortstop? Steamer projects Story with a 2025 wRC+ of 82 with 1.0 WAR in 141 games. The 32-year-old Story is coming off three injury-plagued seasons. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/injuries/_/id/18377/trevor-story Bregman was drafted as a shortstop and played 129 MLB games at that position although he last played shortstop in 2019. Bregman has played only nine MLB games at second base, most recently in 2018. Bregman's potential transitions to second base or shortstop are difficult to project. The move would open up second base for Kristian Campbell, Vaughn Grissom or a sporadic appearance by a healthy Story.

Is being "the privileged product of an elite private high school" a good thing or a bad thing? Depends on your perspective.😉

Does Triston Casas come off as the privileged product of an elite private high school? https://www.ahschool.com/broward-campus Casas was a childhood friend and high school teammate of New York Mets breakout star Mark Vientos, who is a month older than Casas: https://www.audacy.com/podcast/baseball-isnt-boring-50d1b/episodes/bib-on-the-go-the-bond-between-childhood-friends-mark-vientos-and-triston-casas-924da Casas has posted 2.9 bWAR in 222 games, including 0.6 bWAR in 63 games last year, while Vientos has posted 1.9 bWAR in 192 games, including 3.1 bWAR in 111 games last year.

Would anyone trade Triston Casas to the Los Angeles Angels for catcher Logan O'Hoppe? Baseball Trade Values assigns surplus values of $29.8 million for Casas and $23.4 million for O'Hoppe. Casas and O'Hoppe, who were born less than a month apart, each come with four years of team control. ZiPS projects Casas with three-year WAR of 1.5, 1.5 and 1.7, while projecting O'Hoppe with three-year WAR of 2.6, 2.6 and 2.6. In November the Angels signed veteran catcher Travis d'Arnaud, whom ZiPS projects with a 2025 WAR of 2.0 in 87 games.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=y&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&type=8&month=39 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=y&ind=0&type=8&month=39&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2024 The NESN team had harsh words for Triston Casas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-spuT5EAnY

The 10-year, $313.5 million contract is long not only in duration but in number of pages or words. If Rafael Devers wanted a guarantee of playing third base, his agent could have insisted that detail be in the contract. Of course, the Red Sox front office would be unlikely to make that concession. If it's not in writing ...

A more encouraging comp might be David Ortiz in his age 27 season. Here are the platoon splits for Rafael Devers and Ortiz in their age 27 seasons: RD vs. RHP 377 PA, 24 HR, .293/.385/.601/.986 RD vs. LHP 224 PA, 4 HR, .240/.304/.382/.686 DO vs. RHP 386 PA, 27 HR, .313/.404/.654/1.058 DO vs. LHP 123 PA, 4 HR, .216/.260/.414/.674 In their age 27 seasons Ortiz posted an OPS+ of 144 and Devers an OPS+ of 134.

Rafael Devers' current contract addresses the possibility of a trade, awarding a $2 million bonus to be paid by the receiving team in a trade: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/18493/rafael-devers https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/boston-red-sox/ Was the Red Sox front office in contact with Devers' agent as the offseason unfolded? Seattle PBO Jerry Dipoto reported his front office was in regular contact with Luis Castillo's agent as trade rumors swirled this offseason.