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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. harmony
    How many of these 49 baseball metrics are "GUESSES ALSO KNOWN AS ESTIMATES" in comparison to the official scorer's subjective calls on errors? https://www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats
  2. harmony
    The Red Sox and Cardinals are similarly situated as storied franchises currently in Wild Card races coming off multiple down seasons. The Cardinals are unlikely to sell Ryan Helsley.
  3. harmony
    Baseball Reference now gives the Red Sox a 54 percent chance of advancing to the postseason while giving the Seattle Mariners a 52.1 percent chance: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2025.shtml https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2025.shtml FanGraphs has the Red Sox at 44.4 percent and the Mariners at 61.6 percent: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
  4. harmony
    FWIW this year Jarren Duran ranks 89th among all qualified hitters in fWAR as he approaches his 29th birthday in September.
  5. harmony
    After the three-game series at Yankee Stadium, Seattle travels to Detroit to take on the league's best team. It's a brutal road trip for the Mariners before the All Star Break.
  6. harmony
    FanGraphs gives the 48-45 Red Sox a 33.6 percent of advancing to the postseason: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds After 93 games last year the Red Sox were 51-42 with a 47.0 percent chance of advancing to the postseason: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2024-07-11&dateDelta=
  7. harmony
    Baseball Trade Values assigns the package of Garrett Crochet, Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer a combined surplus value of $173.7 million, just shy of Cal Raleigh's assigned surplus value of $179.3 million. That's big!😀 Last October BTV undervalued Raleigh at $19.8 million; today's value may have overcompensated. Or not.
  8. harmony
    The Seattle Mariners have averaged 88+ wins over Cal Raleigh's first four seasons and currently hold down a Wild Card slot. FanGraphs gives the Mariners a 72.4 percent chance of advancing to the postseason while Baseball Reference lists their chances at 67.6 percent. The Red Sox chances are 31.1 percent and 43.3 percent. What could the Red Sox offer in exchange for the Mariner cornerstone, whom Baseball Trade Values currently assigns a surplus value of $179.3 million? Why would the Mariners want prospects in the middle of a race for the postseason appearance? FWIW Seattle entered the season with Keith Law's top-ranked farm system at The Athletic. After just signing a six-year extension, would Raleigh, despite some family roots in New England, waive his no-trade clause to join a struggling franchise seeking a return to relevance?
  9. harmony
    The Red Sox are only two games behind the Seattle Mariners for the final Wild Card slot.
  10. harmony
    Baseball Trade Values assigns Aroldis Chapman a surplus value of $2.2 million: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?q=aroldis&page=1 Is that value too low, too high or about right?
  11. harmony
    The provided stats are outdated on Mick Abel, who has surrendered nine earned runs over his last 4.2 innings to raise his season ERA to 5.04 (with a FIP of 6.25 and a negative 0.3 fWAR)). Abel's MLB debut comes on the heels of four somewhat disappointing minor league seasons. The left-hander has a ways to go before becoming part of the "best one-two punch in the American League."
  12. harmony
    How does any team decline an $8 million option on Freddy Peralta, a barely 29-year-old right-hander who has posted a 3.57 ERA since the start of the 2023 season while ranking 11th among all pitchers in starts? Over those two-and-a-half seasons, Peralta has posted 6.9 fWAR valued at $55 million.
  13. harmony
    In a swap of 27-year-olds, the Brewers might not trade Andrew Vaughn, and his 2025 wRC+ of 43, for David Hamilton, and his 2025 wRC+ of 30.
  14. harmony
    Would the 48-38 Milwaukee Brewers, currently holding the second NL Wild Card slot, trade their starting first baseman to a sub-.500 club for a 27-year-old utility player who this year has posted a 30 wRC+ and a negative 0.4 fWAR?
  15. harmony
    Alex Bregman is accustomed to playing for winning teams, experiencing his only losing campaign in the shortened 2020 season. Since Bregman entered the league in 2016, the Astros have posted MLB's second-best record, advancing to the World Series four times, winning twice. Bregman may listen to the Red Sox but how interested should Bregman be in an franchise that is currently struggling to post its first winning season since 2021? Does this year's Sox drama increase or decrease Bregman's interest in a long-term commitment with the Red Sox? How likely is a Scott Boras client to sign an extension in season?
  16. harmony
    Two of the three wins on the West Coast trip came by two-run margins when the opponent went a combined 1-for-14 with runners in scoring position. The Sox won that three-game series despite scoring only five runs. That opponent scored 47 runs in its next five games. . The Red Sox had some good fortune to offset their bad fortune.
  17. harmony
    Jarren Duran entered the season as a projected 4-win player at ZiPS: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?position=OF#zips-3-year-projections ... but has posted only 0.7 fWAR to date with a ZiPS projection of 1.2 WAR the remainder of the season: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?position=OF Baseball Trade Values still assigns Duran a surplus value of $54.1 million as Duran approaches his 29th birthday in September: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?q=jarren&page=1
  18. harmony
    In a rare extended pitching dual, Robbie Ray and Kansas City left-hander Kris Bubic each tossed seven shutout innings in the last game I attended at Oracle Park in San Francisco: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/royals-vs-giants/2025/05/19/777855/final/box For today's game, we had to settle for standing-room-only tickets.🤨 Unrelated, but a Boston fan and YouTuber offers his thoughts on the spiraling costs of following sports: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/16/opinion/sports-nba-mlb-leagues-streaming-fan.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Q08.gpwq.uZyXb3clGzgI&smid=url-share
  19. harmony
    The Seattle outburst came on the heels of going 1-for-14 with runners in scoring position in two losses to the Red Sox this week. The Mariners lost the series despite outscoring the Sox 9-5 (just as the Sox lost the earlier series at Fenway Park despite outscoring the M's 16-15).
  20. harmony
    Let's not forget that last season Cal Raleigh won the Platinum Glove as the best defensive player in the American League at any position. https://www.mlb.com/news/cal-raleigh-brice-turang-win-2024-platinum-glove-awards And who leads all catchers in stolen bases this season ... by a significant margin?
  21. harmony
    Seattle would be unlikely to trade Mitch Garver for that Red Sox package. BTW Cal Raleigh and Garver combined for four home runs and eight RBI in today's 9-4 win over the first-place Chicago Cubs. With his 28th and 29th roundtrippers, Raleigh now has the most home runs in MLB history for a catcher before the All Star break.
  22. harmony
    FWIW this year Seattle prospect catcher Harry Ford has posted a .313/.425/.483/.909 line with a wRC+ of 138 and `17.7 percent strikeout rate in 55 games at Triple A Tacoma. The 22-year-old Ford may be the top Mariner trade chip at the July 31 deadline. Or not.
  23. harmony
    Rafael Devers stood out as the best hitter on mediocre teams the past three seasons.
  24. harmony
    The Mariners should win many series when they limit their opponents to five runs on nine hits over three games.😏 Gorgeous day at the ballpark, though.
  25. harmony
    In his start against Seattle earlier this season, Garrett Crochet surrendered four runs on five hits and five walks over five innings in a 4-3 Red Sox loss.
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