harmony

San Diego currently holds a Wild Card slot with a better record and better postseason odds than the Red Sox. The Padres are highly unlikely to trade a top starter for prospects -- such as Jhostynxon Garcia or James Tibbs III -- who are unlikely to contribute this season. Given their current place in the standings, would the Red Sox trade a rental such as Aroldis Chapman for only a prospect?

David Hamilton? That's news. https://www.mlb.com/news/red-sox-deepened-rotation-with-crochet-and-buehler?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/12/red-sox-wanted-to-package-triston-casas-high-paid-veteran-in-trade-for-pitching-report.html https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2024/12/27/red-sox-triston-casas-masataka-yoshida-mariners-trade-luis-castillo/

During the offseason a Red Sox podcaster lambasted the Seattle Mariners for reportedly not taking on Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida in exchange for right-hander Luis Castillo, who this season has posted a 3.19 ERA in 22 starts. Even so, Baseball Trade Values assigns Castillo a negative value of $10.6 million while listing Yoshida at a negative $32.8 million and Casas at 0.

Every American baseball fan should experience a baseball game in Japan. This spring I attended home games of the reigning Korean champion LG Twins and the reigning Japanese Series champion Yokohama DeNA BayStars. On a Sunday in Seoul, my wife, her sister and I had a guided tour that ended at 12:30 pm and another tour that started at 6:30 pm. I had my eye on the 2 pm game between the Twins and the Lotte Giants at Jamsil Stadium on the other end of the metropolis. I caught the subway, missed the right stop and walked about a mile and a half to Olympic Boulevard, which led to the stadium. The boulevard was lined with fans, many wearing attire of the Twins and Giants. Arriving at a stadium I was surprised that the ticket office was open for what I thought was a sold-out game. I bought my ticket and entered an enclosed concourse, which I thought was a bit unusual. I poked my head into the portal to the seats to learn that I was at a Korean Basketball League game. I immediately left and walked five more blocks to the sold-out baseball stadium. The language barrier made negotiations with the scruffy scalpers difficult. I somehow negotiated a price from 30,000 won up to 40,000 won (the difference between about $21 and $28). Ticket scalping is illegal in Korea and I had read reports of a scalped ticket not being accepted at the gate. Nevertheless I gained entry to the most electric baseball atmosphere I had ever experienced. Fans were standing, singing and chanting on every pitch. A few weeks later I attended a game in Yokohama with my wife, her sister and our guide who had secured advance tickets. The atmosphere was again electric. My embarrassing missteps did not spoil my adventuresome first trip Asia.

Baseball Reference gives the Red Sox a 61.9 percent chance of advancing to the postseason: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2025-playoff-odds.shtml ... while FanGraphs lists the Sox chances at 46.6 percent: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds The Red Sox are in a precarious position but are unlikely sellers.

Just as Jarren Duran is NOT as good as he was last year with 8.7 bWAR and an OPS+ of 131. Duran has posted 12.7 bWAR and an OPS+ of 112 in five MLB seasons, including 2.7 bWAR and an OPS+ of 107 this year. Ryan has posted 11.0 bWAR and an ERA+ of 114 in five MLB seasons, including 4.5 bWAR and an ERA+ of 161 this year. Ryan, who is three months older than Duran, remains under team control for two more seasons working off his 2025 salary of $3 millon, while Duran remains under team control for three more seasons working off his 2025 salary of $3.85 million (with an $8 million team option for 2026).

??? Today Joe Ryan, Griffin Jax and Christian Vazquez had a combined value of $97.5 million. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?page=1&q=vazquez Jarren Duran was listed at $47.3 million, Jhostynxon Garcia at $12.9 million, Franklin Arias at $22.1 million and Payton Tolle at $20 million, for a total of $103.3 million. That's close. A presumptive contending team tends to overpay at the trade deadline.

Think again: https://twinsdaily.com/forums/topic/71630-should-derek-falvey-be-trusted-to-make-trade-decisions-on-griffin-jax-jhoan-duran-and-joe-ryan/#findComment-1542127

Baseball Trade Values provides values in a vacuum. A contending team will likely overpay for a worthwhile starting pitcher at the trade deadline. Businesses often overpay in an attempt to achieve a desire goal. Baseball is no different.

Jamie Moyer to Seattle for Darren Bragg at the 1996 trade deadline? Moyer posted 34.2 bWAR in 11 seasons with the Mariners while Bragg posted 6.2 bWAR in three seasons with the Red Sox.

Indeed, Stanford's Nico Hoerner was the No. 24 pick and Kris Bubic the No., 40 pick. This poster never saw Bubic pitch in college but in 2016 saw Hoerner and Tommy Edman in the Stanford middle infield: https://gostanford.com/boxscore/1452

In May this Kris Bubic fan witnessed the left-hander's seven-inning, shutout gem in San Francisco: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/royals-vs-giants/2025/05/19/777855/final/box The Kansas City Royals drafted Bubic in the first round out of Stanford in 2018*. * the same year my daughter graduated from Stanford

After Jordan Hicks intentionally walked Max Kepler to load the bases with no outs in the bottom of the 10th, Philadelphia had a win probability of 93.1 percent: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-phillies/2025/07/21/777063/final/summary/all Nevertheless, the walkoff ending was bizarre.

FWIW entering the season FanGraphs gave the Red Sox a 56.2 percent chance of advancing to the postseason: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2025-03-17&dateDelta= Monday evening FanGraphs gaves the Sox a 44.4 chance of advancing to the postseason: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

Even productive MLB hitters will occasionally don the Golden Sombrero worn Monday evening by Roman Anthony.

Interesting analysis: https://pebblehunting.substack.com/p/the-swing-paradox

At the All Star break the Red Sox were one game up on the Seattle Mariners in the AL Wild Card race (but even in the loss column); https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/wc?date=2025-07-16&dateDelta= The daunting post-break schedule had the Sox facing the three NL division leaders in the Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers. The Mariners faced a tough post-break schedule with the AL West-leading Houston Astros and the Milwaukee Brewers, who have now tied the Cubs for the NL Central lead. The Red Sox and the Mariners are in a virtual tie for the fifth and sixth Wild Card slots after the Sox lost two of three to the Cubs and the Mariners won two of three against the Astros. https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/wc?date=2025-07-20&dateDelta= The remainder of the season should be interesting.

Are these Cubs podcasters realistic in their trade proposals? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dwHU7tMgac 🙂

Did the eight-year extension increase or decrease Kristian Campbell's trade value?

Cleveland would be reluctant to take on Kristian Campbell's guaranteed salary of nearly $60 million, including $20 million in 2032 (including a $4 million buyout of a 2033 team option). https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/84877/kristian-campbell Will Campbell still be in baseball in 2032? The valuations at Baseball Trade Values are volatile and Campbell's valuation may be headed downward given his struggles this year at Triple A.

By wRC+, Rafael Devers ranked 19th among qualified hitters in 2024, 31st in 2023, 18th in 2022 and 26th in 2021. Cumulatively over those four seasons, Devers ranked 22nd among qualified hitters in wRC+. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&startdate=&enddate=&pageitems=30&season1=2021&season=2024 After entering the league in 2017, Devers never finished in the Top 10 in voting for American League most valuable player.

The Minnesota Twins reportedly are not discussing Joe Ryan in trade talks: https://fansided.com/mlb/mlb-all-star-weekend-rumors-joe-ryan-trade-misiorowski-extension-braves-latest

Seattle infielder Cole Young provides an interesting comp with Boston infielder Marcelo Mayer, who is seven months older than Young. Mayer was the No. 4 pick in the 2021 draft one year before Young was the No. 21 pick in the 2022 draft. Each was drafted as a shortstop but made his MLB debut this year elsewhere in the infield. This season Mayer has posted an 86 OPS+ and 81 wRC+ in 124 plate appearances while posting 0.3 bWAR and 0.5 fWAR in 40 games. Young has posted a 92 OPS+ and 88 wRC+ in 129 plate appearances while posting 0.8 bWAR and 0.1 fWAR in 35 games. FanGraphs projects Mayer with an 84 wRC+ and 0.4 WAR in 47 remaining games while projecting Young with a 96 wRC+ and 0.6 WAR in 48 remaining games. Entering this year, ZiPS projected Mayer with 1.1 WAR in 87 games in 2025, 1.2 WAR in 92 games in 2026 and 1.5 WAR in 96 games in 2027. ZiPS projected Young with 2.1 WAR in 134 games in 2025, 2.3 WAR in 138 games in 2026 and 2.7 in 141 games in 2027. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcelo-mayer/29668/stats?position=3B https://www.fangraphs.com/players/cole-young/31680/stats?position=2B Despite the similarities, Baseball Trade Values recently assigned Mayer a surplus value of $54.6 million and Young a surplus value of $26.6 million.

Odds that never change would be odd indeed. FanGraphs projects only the probability of an outcome. Is a team with a 7-2 record more likely to finish with an 8-2 record than a team with a 4-2 record? Have the intervening three wins changed the probability of achieving an 8-2 record?

Those who understand probabilities exploit those who don't.