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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    They also project Yoshida to start the year on the IL. Is he actually hurt? Either way, this aligns with my prediction that Campbell/Anthony would make the team in the event of an injury, a situation you called "highly unlikely"...
  2. notin
    Would it really be "rushing" Mayer? His main problem has been injuries, but he has done well at every level he has played at. And he has been in the system a lot longer than Campbell. Campbell has played in AAA, but not very much. And AAA is really not much of a developmental step in many organizations, since it is significantly populated by ex-MLB players on minor league deals. Mayer probably does not have Campbell's ceiling, but his roster spot is heavily dependant on an injury right now. Campbell, per Soxprospects. is "passable" at shortstop. But that same source has much higher praise for Mayer at the position. But then this is all only if Story gets hurt, and the Sox will likely keep the Kid Gloves on with him until opening day...
  3. notin
    MLB.com has him at 12. Not top 10, but right there on the fringe... https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/top100/
  4. notin
    Some?
  5. notin
    Phillips is an excellent example. His offensive similarities include players like Terry Pendleton, Jose Offerman and Carney Langford. But his 51 bWAR dwarfs all but Lansford, where his margin was a mere 10 bWAR better (in a couple extra years). One reason might be the multiple positions, with Pendleton (28 bWAR) and Lansfoed (40 bWAR) largely just playing 3b, and Offerman (17 bWAR) playing multiple position but playing them weakly…
  6. notin
    If the Sox want Skenes, Rafaela is NOT the centerpiece. In fact, his contract might make him a detrimental inclusion. The starting offer for Skenes is both Campbell AND Anthony, and maybe more. I know you’re trying to explain his usefulness, but this can be done with less extreme examples. Once you dive into unrealistic evidence, I’m not sure what your point is…
  7. notin
    A fair question. I’m not certain why “Zobristing” (what I called it when that term would have been relevant) happens mathematically, but I theorized when defensively talented players are used around the diamond with good sample sizes, OOZ plays become a larger percentage of their plays, but this felt situational. Another theory is Fangraphs intentionally allows this to put some value on versatility…
  8. notin
    Good defense obviously, but WAR can be inflated disproportionately quite often for players who play multiple positions. Ben Zobrist had plenty of value, but he was never a realistic MVP candidate despite WAR indicating to the contrary. Unless Rafaela learns to hit, playing one position only could actually negatively impact his WAR, even without a slip in defense. With Duran improving in CF, Rafaela could/should slip into a utility role if the Sox want to get Campbell or Anthony onto the roster. It’s weird you think it’s early to give on him, while posting his K/BB rates are in a rare place where no player has ever gone before. A few have and most fall into the category of career minor leaguers or AAAA players…
  9. notin
    Why need a trade? The following position players can simply be demoted to Worcester: Yoshida, Rafaela, Abreu, Hamilton, Gonzalez, Grissom, Casas. Maybe someone else. Wong and Narvaez both can, for example, but it’s irrelevant in this discussion. If the Sox didn’t have this bizarre commitment to Rafaela, he’s the obvious choice, at least for the bench…
  10. notin
    Answered
  11. notin
    Has that happened yet either?
  12. notin
    Manipulating service time isntn no the only reason prospects get held back a couple months. And citing the Pirates losing out because the player won ROY - which happens to exactly TWO teams per year, is a weak argument. Some teams like having the depth and use their prospects when injuries settle in. I doubt the Nationals held back James Wood and Dylan Crews because they felt Eddie Rosario was the answer in LF. Or the Orioles starting Jorge Mateo over Jackson Holliday? Know why? Because Mateo was pretty good the year before and they wanted to keep BOTH. And it was the right move, because when Holliday got his chance he did not hit the ground running. The O’s had the same experience with Heston Kjerstad, who had a lot less to prove in AAA than Kristian Campbell has. And it turned out NOT clearing a path for both Holliday and Kjerstad was the right move. So I will ask again - who are you benching for Campbell or Anthony? Also Mayer’s chances rest on Story getting injured, which is an annual thing, like the summer solstice or Groundhog Day. If Story goes down early, Campbell at SS over Mayer? I know Campbell has played some SS, but that doesn’t mean he’s any good. Hamilton played SS in the minors, too, and it turns out he’s not good at it. Was Campbell a good SS in his limited sample? Or at least good enough to fill in?
  13. notin
    The biggest reason right now is neither are eligible. Not to mention the lineup is overcrowded as it is…
  14. notin
    Whether or not the Pirates were right or wrong, they did do it, which was the point. Campbell in LF means benching/platooning/demoting Rafaela, whom they have said plays CF “as much as possible.” Now if they count CF in Polar Park, that would help Campbell out. Think they demote Rafaela? Who loses at bats by playing Campbell in LF? We know it won’t be Duran…
  15. notin
    The biggest obstacle Campbell faces is Cora was an advocate for Bregman at 2b, at least publicly. But if he was serious, it poses a big obstacle for Campbell. Anthony has the advantage of the two, because Rafaela is ok, but weak offensively. If they decide to demote/bench/limit Rafaela, Anthony has a better chance. It doesn’t help Anthony that the public voice of the team is “Rafaela in CF as much as possible.” Of course one might look at this and think “ they’re going FULL THROTTLE on Rafaela in CF.” So there is that. All Mayer needs is Story to get hurt. Thats something Story has excelled at, unfortunately…
  16. notin
    Sure they are. Did Skenes break camp with Pitt last year? Did Dylan Crews break camp with Washington? Or Jackson Holliday with Baltimore? Jackson Chourio and Jackson Merrill both did, but Chourio enhanced his chances by signing an extension. Now if Campbell or Anthony were to follow suit…
  17. notin
    Maybe, but not until one gets out on the roster. And if I had to pick one, I’d probably pick Mayer, because we’ve seen Story go down enough times. As for the “word on the streets,” this is not exactly new. Remember when it was so important to move on from Ellis Burks so there was a clear path for Psycho Steve Lyons? And the bulk of it started before Bregman arrived and clouded the picture. Now if the Sox can clear out one of Casas, Devers, Abreu, or Yoshida, that changes things. Or if they sour of Rafaela and decide he’s the one who needs AAA or should platoon with Abreu, that also changes things. But neither of those situations have happened yet…
  18. notin
    Some of us don’t use the NHL for geography references…
  19. notin
    Why? Older brother Klay was drafted in 2011 and just turned 35…
  20. notin
    Move Devers to catcher. Solves soooooo many problems…
  21. notin
    Abreu is a better overall player than Rafaela, who’s probably the Sox OF most likely to lose his starting role to Anthony (if anyone is)…
  22. notin
    It’s just as easy to come up with 171.5 million reasons to NOT go to Detroit…
  23. notin
    Two? The Sox have THREE top ten prospects. So you’re saying the Sox should needlessly further complicate their roster issues to accommodate one of two players both under 24? It would be one thing if the Sox had a clear need. But if Bregman is at 2b, the clearest path comes by replacing the Gold Glover with 5 years of control in RF. Abreu is no Dwight Evans, but he’s not exactly Rudy Pemberton either. The Sox might add neither right away because history has shown the first one needed will be Mayer. Story hasn’t exactly shown a full season is a given…
  24. notin
    I think it will take an injury for either one…
  25. notin
    Campbell isn’t an option right now; he’s not on the roster. We don’t even know of a good spring training will get him on the roster, let alone put him in the starting lineup…
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