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Everything posted by notin
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So he started making hard contact less often and brought himself DOWN to a .362 BABIP on ground balls? Imagine how high hus BABIP must have been before. And while pitchers do make adjustments and the word spreads, let's be realistic. Leon fell off a cliff. Is the argument thay nearly EVERY pitcher in the AL made the same adjustments against Leon and nearly everyone was successful? That's a big coincidence to swallow. Real big. Or... Maybe Leon was just lucky alot for a long time. He hit grounders where fielders weren't, and when he hit them at fielders, the infielders were inadequate. It wasn't all bloop hits and grounders with eyes for Leon. But he most definitely was lucky. And had a career year based on some ramdomness. ..
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So are you saying Leon smoked a lot of grounders past infielders and then suddenly forgot how? He was 50% above league average in this regard. Fifty percent higher, which is an insanea mount higher given the abysmally tight range that is MLB batting averages. Doesn't strike you as "lucky"?
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But what about luck that isn't obvious? Like Sandy Leon last year? Was he using applied skill? He helped himself with an absurdly high BABIP on ground balls for a guy with no speed. Luck or applied skill?
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No one is putting words in your mouth, especially with questions. But I do want your definition of randomness as it applies to baseball. I'm willing to bet a few people are arguing over the same points and only differing on terminology....
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What is randomness to you?
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So therefore nothing in baseball is ever truly random?
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I have to wonder at some point how the anti-randomness people are defining "randomness"...
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Still like the idea of Pomeranz in the pen, especially over Wright. But then we'd really need a starter.
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The idea of Kelly pitching AAA originated at Soxprospects.com. While it did help find roster spots for everyone, I don't think anyone felt it was a good idea beyond the casual mention. ..
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Well he hasn't played in the post-season yet.
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I have to agree wins and saves are worse. My bad. But ERA in my opinion is overused, relied on heavily and often misunderstood. It might be the least reliable stat for evaluating a pitcher after wins, etc. Yet I'll probably continue using it, because it's relatable. ..
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Interestingly, it came right after a series where he got on base on 7 times in 25 plate appearances (.280 OBP) against Detroit. Are we too believe he got that much better in one week and no randomness was involved?
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Yes the initial post started out by saying an 0 for 20 hitter's chances are not determined by the poor streak. My position is that the previous hot/cold streak can be used as a predictor, but not by using batting average, which is what people use to define hot and cold streaks. BABIP, which tells you about the contact, is what more useful in this regard. And translating BABIP to batting average can be a result of randomness, especially in small sample sizes.
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Absolutely. If they are better than Owens Johnson, mission accomplished. If not, they are only minor league contracts. And there is no such thing as a bad minor league contract...
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The Sox did usually have a few MLB ready starters under Cherington. Many were unexciting guys like Doubront or Workman or De La Rosa. I don't expect All Stars coming up from AAA, or even every call up to succeed. But I do expect sufficient depth that there is a better chance of success from one or two arms. Unlike last year. This isn't about building the farm. This is about the types of guys that are available every year for minor league deals, and are usually the types of deals many fans deride as looking for "lightning in a bottle" when they are necessary depth...
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The initial posit of "randomness" was that it could be used to explain streaks. You're moving the goal posts...
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I do think the Sox need to sign some of the mediocre and oft-injured guys o minor league deals. Guys I think might accept them include Dillon Gee, Kris Medlen, Vance Worley, Ross Detwiler, and Lucas Harrell. Rubby De La Rosa is another guy who might, but will probably get real major league interest due to his age. Jorge De La Rosa would be an awesome get if he accepted one and returned to the Red Sox organization...
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The Sox don't need Plouffe, and Fister is one of those guys more likely to try and get an MLB deal. He may not, but he probably won't settle for a MiLB deal until later this month...
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I prefer Owens to Johnson, but it's somewhat similar to the same way I prefer influenza to pneumonia...
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Funny story. Per MLBTR, the Red Sox are reportedly looking into acquiring a "Buchholz-type" pitcher and the list of candidates could potentially include Buchholz himself. It seems Rodriguez' knee tweak has already depleted the Sox depth at starting pitcher. Historically, Dombrowski has shown he does two things as a GM. He gets star players. And he ignores pitching depth...
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At some you need to acknowledge you're trying to seperate a 20% chance of success from a 30% chance of success and acting like this isn't the most minute of ranges to judge a player on.
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I'd be willing to bet Ortiz' regular season numbers in most cases don't differ from his regular season numbers against those same teams. And he does face a lot of thr "backend" guys in the post-season because, by the end of the season, injuries have bumped many of those guys to the front...
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Ortiz had a career .956 OPS with Boston anda career .947 OPS in the post-season. The myth of his post-season success is rooted in the fact that he is a really, really good hitter who hit the same in the post-season as he did in the regular season. But the hits in the post-season are more memorable in many cases. The reason Papi is a post-season hero is that he is also a regular season hero...
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The worst stat ever to evaluate a pitcher is ERA. Too much of it is dependant on other players, and its universal acceptance as the ultimate evaluator pitchers is simply due to laziness. (I use it myself a lot. It's easy, accepted and understood.) I like FIP and K/BB because at least these are things the pitcher can control. Fangraphs has some excellent stats like Zone% and Contact% which, when combined properly, can show you some real hidden gem pitchers ready to break out. Toying around with those was when I found Danny Salazar was surprisingly good after last season, like really surprisingly good. Like one of the best pitchers in baseball good. And he started out that way this year before getting hurt.
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Not only too small. but more importantly spread out over too many years. It's bad enough to evaluate a guy on 70IP, but to do so on 70IP speard out over 8 seasons flies in the face of the exact human factor people are saying it is proof of. If you want to cite these types of things as proof of choke or inability to perform under pressure, then you have to acknowledge that over time, Price, or any player is not the same person and has grown somewhat. And even f that player continues not to perform, it becomes less likely it is simply "choking" and more likely that it is just poor timing, bad luck, and small sample sizes. Therefore long term post-season failures actually are more likely attributable to randomness. Although as teams in the post-season do tend to be better level of talent, we cannot eliminate them having good days, too...
