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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    So have you ever talked to a major league coach or manager about clutch hitters? I suppose I could also ask who wrote about it and why they didn't define it while writing. Seems like a poor way to address the topic...
  2. notin
    That's funny. As that I'd EXACTLY the direction I was heading in. We all think of choking and failure and clutch as being associated with big moments, typically the post-season. But I would suspect the minor leagues are far more pressure packed. Players like Buckner and Schiraldi and Scott Norwood might live in ignominy, but they also lived well. They lived their dreams. But how about minor leaguers who need to impress or face a lifetime of bus rides and winter jobs?
  3. notin
    Maybe they can. Maybe they also have a definition of one as well. But at this point, are you saying the entire argument for the existence of clutch hitting rests solely on the testimony of a bunch of people you have never talked to and likely never will? By that logic, I can prove the existence of UFO's...
  4. notin
    At what level were you playing when you lived in all this clutch hitting?
  5. notin
    Mark Loretta, an All Star who never banged a ball girl, preceded Pedroia at 2b
  6. notin
    That's a horrible definition. Far too subjective. As a former (?) lawyer, you should be keenly aware the definition didn't work for them, and doesn't work for you (or me). If either of us can randomly determine when a hitter is "clutch" it takes all meaning from the word and leaves it as a bare bones concept at best. And maybe coaches and players can recognize it, but our observational skills aren't as tuned in as theirs. And it's not like we talk to them about it. Bottom line is, if you can't even tell me what a clutch hitter is, how can you know enough to recognize one?
  7. notin
    How about an anti-stathead crowd?
  8. notin
    I question the idea of choking moments in a game where even the best hitters are successful only 30% of the time...
  9. notin
    Yes but are they human beings whose ability to handle pressure is beyond what you and I understand? What do you think of as big pressure moments?
  10. notin
    I like the start of that definition. Of course, it does require some sort of definition of high pressure situations. Bellhorn gave a good starting point that games in April have less pressure that games in September. Technically that only applies to good teams, since bad teams are still in the race in April. But I get the idea. I can work with "replicating normal performance." I disagree on the point about LHP. But maybe that's all part of the high pressure situation...
  11. notin
    That is an excellent point. However, and do give this some thought before answering, if we are talking about a hitter who excels in the clutch, does it matter? Isn't part of clutch hitting the the opposing team makes it as tough as they csn? I guess we really do need a definition of a clutch hitter. ...
  12. notin
    There is a big difference in getting a clutch hit and being a clutch hitter. Francisco Cabrera got one of the biggest clutch hits in Braves history. That never made him a guy they wanted up in key situations. The problem with proving or disproving the existence of a clutch hitter is the lack of any actual definition - especially one that does not contain the word "clutch." But if anyone ever makes one, it had to include David Ortiz. That goes without argument. Last season Ortiz had an OPS Off 1.021. In innings 7-9, his OPS was 1.046. Basically the same. But in Late and Close situations as defined by B-R, his OPS was .903. Still awesome but a little worse. So did Ortiz come through better"in the clutch"? Or was he just an awesome hitter who got some very big hits based on his hitting ability?
  13. notin
    Even if the guy with 28 hits takes 200ABs to get them while the guy with 24 only needs 100? A batting average already is a percentage in decimal form. All you're trying to do is modify the percentage difference from another percentage. If one Player A hit .280 and another hit .240, do you argue Player A was 40 points better? Or not?
  14. notin
    You mean the players and coaches that you never talk to and who only speak to the media in cliches?
  15. notin
    The Guardians were also without their best hitter in Michael Brantley last year. And spent a good chunk of the season without 2 of their best starting pitchers, plus the entire post-season. I didn't compare Texas to Boston. I said the AL West should be easier for them than the AL East should be for Boston. The mere act of being more likely to be in the post-season should make for them to have better odds. Too many fans seem to like sleeping on Toronto and think the AL East is already locked up...
  16. notin
    Just so you know, when you move the baseline like this, you're ignoring that hitters make outs, which is the overwhelming majority of their at-bats and the entire point....
  17. notin
    No. At 1% and 5% chances of victory, chances are very high you lose both bets...
  18. notin
    Are you trying to say the 1.4 rpg is a result solely of batting average? And not the 40 more home runs the Sox hit or the higher team slugging and team walks? We are talking about batting average ranges here...
  19. notin
    But you changed it to a relative baseline. That's like saying a player batting .010 is twice as good as a batter hitting .005. The reality both are equally ineffective...
  20. notin
    If I had to put money on one team in the AL, Cleveland is the easy choice. I'd put Boston as equal to Texas, whose in a weaker division and therefore more of a shoo-in to make the post-season already. But none of that means a thing to the Red Sox ..
  21. notin
    Or he thought that little of Andy Dirks offense that Dombrowski figured he needed to get him out of the lineup. I wouldn't blame him there. I'd take Iglesias' glove over Dirks' bat any day. But that doesn't mean defense was the primary factor in that decision. (Not to mention, technically it was Leyland putting Peralta in left and Iglesias at short, and not Dombrowski. )
  22. notin
    Not funny math. If you were gambling, the 5% outcome is the smarter bet, but would you put 5 times as much on it?
  23. notin
    You're talking about 600 plate appearances vs 15,000 to make that difference. And over that stretch it was still less than 1.5 runs per game...
  24. notin
    Only comparatively, which is immaterial and misleading.
  25. notin
    His trade for Iglesias probably never happens if Peralta, who can hit a little, doesn't test positive foe PEDs
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