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Everything posted by notin
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Only from Henry's bank account and not where it matters to Dombrowski and us fans...
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Using just ERA mighr be unfair, asDetroit is an easier ballpark for a pitcher. His ERA+ went from 97 in Detroit to 109 in Boston. That's actually a pretty nice improvement. He got better than an additional 1/8 of the pitchers in the league in the past 3 years on ERA alone...
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Some of us still think the jury is still out on Castillo. Not that he will ever be an All Star, but I think he can be a positive contributor at the MLB level. And I can keep that faith forever, knowing he will more than likely never get the chance to prove me wrong...
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Maybe not, maybe both sets are horrible. But I have more faith in Betts and the first set than Betts and the second one...
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Possible. But like I pointed out, the value in many pf the players comes with their ability to play MLB level ball for no money. Moncada, Kopech and Margot might not be Pedroia, Kimbrel and Bradley. But by playing well enough for a combined $1.2mill, they make keeping Betts around easier. If the Sox have to spend $10mill or $20mill replacing some of the departing players, keeping Betts and company gets more difficult. And simply using other minor leaguers in their place does keep the money down, but would you rather have Moncada, Kopech and Margot? Or Tony Renda, Aneury Tavares, and Willaim Cuevas?
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Also when being supported
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Diagnosing injuries on people he's never seen?
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I can agree on that. But then a 30yo David Price at $31mill for 7 years is absolutely going to be a problematic contract at some point. Some say it already is. And really, the poor contracts for Sandoval and Hanley don't excuse Price's, which could be catastrophic at the wrong time. i.e when Betts is ready for free agency...
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At the time, Porcello was also 26 years old and still developing. For point of reference, Jalen Beeks is 25 and I think at a minimum we can agree his future is still TBD. Really, Porcello is still only 29, which seems crazy for how long he has been around...
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And 3 years later, this is still revisionist history...
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I remember a lot of people criticizing Epstein as someone who rode to his success on a team built by Duquette. Of course, if we do this same exercise with those two GMs, DD is a distant second. My only criticism of Dombrowski is he has really mortgaged the future for this team to win now, not only by emptying the farm but also by tying up a lot of his limited resources with David Price. And what some people overlook with the prospects is that while they won't all be All Stars, they will all make minimum wage for 3 years. And if they can play at a reasonable level and make no money, it makes it easier to retain Betts, Bogaerts, Benintendi, etc. I know a lot of fans will say they don't care about the future, but I can promise you all of them will when it gets here. Which it will.
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I can see some of the reasons for that criticism. But that staff did also have the 2016 Cy young winner. And even then, I think people look at this kind of stuff in a vacuum. The staffs for the Yankees, Blue Jays and Orioles might have been better, but they didn't look so much better that all looked lost for Boston before Spring Training started. A lot of [people cited the Sox lacked an ace that year, which was the basis for a lot of this criticism. But then so did the eventual World Series winners in 2015, a team that handed the ball to Edinson Volsquez for their biggest games... It looked to me like the Sox had an odd strategy of focusing on ground ball pitchers and keeping the ball in the infield. It didn't work out as some of them failed to keep the ball on the ground, making our weak defense in LF much more noticeable and problematic...
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The Sox traded away 6 seasons apiece from Moncada, Kopech, Guerra, Basabe, Margot, and Allen to get 6 total seasons from Sale and Kimbrel. Now if this gets a WSC or two, it might be worth it. Of course, the Sox won a WS in 2013 and by 2015, fans were calling for Cherington and Farrell to be fired before the All Star break. Will these same fans be happy with a 2018 or 2019 WSC and maybe a last place finish in 2020 and/or 2021?
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It is a fair point that Owens BB/9 skyrocketed once he hit AAA ball for some reason. Beeks' BB/9 has done the same thing at MLB, but the sample size is so small this isn't a concern yet. But it would be nice if he could do anything to inspire confidence...
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What were your expectations going into that season? I didn't know what to expect myself, especially since I hated the Sandoval signing. But I don't think last place looked obvious. (Not to mention, simply calling them last place does ignore that the team won 78 games, a very rare high amount for a last place team. They were essentially a .500 ball club, not a 60-102 team.)
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Why not? In this case, the team he inherited certainly had the foundation of a World Series champion. They won it as recently as 2013. It's not like he inherited a hopeless team with no talent and no farm system...
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Do you honestly think those were bad teams? Or good teams that may have a flaw or two? The 2014 team was basically the exact same thing as the 2013 World Series Champion team. I would agree that being status quo was not a good thing, but did you really expect last place? Or did this team simply underachieve?
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To be fair, I wasn’t sure why you thought Beeks was more promising than Owens. Owens didn’t work out but did have the occasional outing that made people think there was some hope for him. Beeks hasn’t even done that yet...
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Unless the Sox add Dixon Machado
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I doubt they trade Bradley anyway, but the point is it might make more sense to deal for a RF who can hit...
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Reportedly the Sox had the chance to deal Bradley for Yasiel Puig before the season started. While Puig is not a CF, he is a solid RF and Betts is elite in any outfield spot. The idea of dealing Bradley for another CF seems like an odd match for any team, especially straight up. Someone will be downgrading and the deal would be imbalanced. Granted, there might be an instance where it works, like one team wants more defense, and one more offense. But then the Sox are near the top ofthe league in most offensive categories, So why try to slightly improve there while weakening the defense? Now the Sox might be able to deal Bradley for a RF (like the Puig deal) and move Betts to CF. Not sure what team matches up although since Bradley has 2+ years left, it might not necessarily be a team looking to stay in contention this year...
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My cue? Actually his UZR/150 went from -0.3 last year to 3.5 this year. Now it could go back down as the season wears on, but to date the metrics support your observation...
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Can you at least agree that the other 3 are all better than he is?
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Beeks isn't very good. Hopefully they won't need him for much...
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Well, the argument hinged on his very low BABIP when compared to his line drive rate and hard hit rate. Very similar to how many on this board were (correctly) predicting Jackie Bradley would eventually break out of his slump using similar criteria. Brock Holt hasa similar line drive rate to Dixon Machado and a lower hard hit rate, but has a BABIP a full .102 higher, which means he might be due for a little regression to the mean himself. And Nunez has not been getting it done with either the glove or the bat this year and he is barely outhitting Machado while playing worse defense by the metrics. Health is probably a factor, but will he ever be fully healthy this year? The Sox do have the mercurial Brandon Phillips as an option. But having two options is usually better than having just one.
