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Everything posted by notin
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10 years ago, he'd be a better candidate and the argument would be Verlander vs. Snell. But apparently there is a cabal of voters who do consider the advanced metrics and those numbers do support Sale over Verlander. However, with all voters, Verlander is certainly going to be a terrific candidate and, even if he doesn't win, won't miss out by much. But sometimes these votes make up for past awards, such as last year when Sale lost to Kluber. It's always possible Sale gets a "makeup" award from the human voters, since he has never won one and has always been deserving...
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I think "average" works out well, and has some statistical support. And, as I keep saying, is more than sufficient for him as a player...
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Mean, median and mode are 3 completely different things. Mean is the average, median is the midpoint, and mode is the most common element in a set. So a set of {1,1,2,4,7} has a mean of 3, a median of 2 and a mode of 1. There are certainly reasons to consider the median a baseline I don't disagree with. But I guess I enjoy the occasional math lesson and, maybe I'm getting too much like Bellhorn when it comes to correcting people...
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Well, if we give the Yankees another tough series, the team penciled in to win it all in March might wind up hitting the road for a wild card game...
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Not to mention, he has kids he might like to see a little more often...
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And they cut his head off. No one did that to Hanley Ramirez, either...
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Median is absolutely not a reasonable definition of average. The two concepts are completely different. The number sets of {1,2,3,10} and {1,2,3,1000000} have the same median. Does that mean they have the approximately the same average? I do get what you're saying, and the use of median might be more appropriate in this case, as there is one certain player (Andrelton Simmons) who is that outlier that significantly influences the average. But if Boagerts is being measured against other shortstops defensively, I think "average" is probably the best way to describe his defense. And all things considered, I think that is a very good thing...
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He did have a top ten MVP finish for the Dodgers in a year he barely played half a season. Overall for that team, he had an OPS+ of 144, which is higher than Mookie Betts has for his career in Boston. I never heard the Dodgers were happy to see him go, but a big reason he left was he was simply getting too expensive for them and he was no longer the durable bastion of health to earn that pay. An AL team, like Boston, at least had the option of playing him at DH...
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Besides, Kimbrel is going to stop being dominant at some point. And it will happen sometime during his next contract...
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Best way to avoid it will be to retain the Killer Bs and not retain Sale and Kimbrel...
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Dombrowski typically does value offense. I could see that being one of his off-season goals. He did keep Swihart around for a reason...
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And they also valued Jackie Bradley’s 255 plate appearances from 2015 more than all the ones that came before it, right?
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We throw around the “blocked prospect” thing too quickly. Really, who was blocking Margot on Boston? Benintendi, from a level behind? Bradley? Certainly, and while I love Bradley, he’s not irreplaceable. Margot hasn’t hit like Bradley has yet, but then JBJ certainly required patience for that to happen. And I’ve seen people call Javier Guerra and Logan Allen “blocked prospects.” How can an A-ball player be blocked? But really, the bottom line is we gave up a lot of prospects and too often I see fans justifying it with “but how many are starters?” Or “how many turned out to be any good?” Like we weeded out the failures here. The truth is, we probably gave up several good players. Not sure why anyone wants to admit that. Why are people so afraid to say we gave up good prospects? Or we might have given up good prospects?
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Why phrase that in the past tense like it's already a foregone conclusion? Are the career paths for Margot, Moncada, Guerra, Kopech, Dubon, and Espinoza already at their peak or something? Are any of those players even 24 yet? Margot is like 9 months older than Dalbec, who is still in AA and yet some fans are excited about his potential...
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It's elevated by all those tweener veterans who sign minor league deals and spend the year bussing back and forth to the major league club for 10 day stretches. The actual prospects in AAA have a much younger average...
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Why not?
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Any of these three easily deserve it.
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1. Is that column actually dWAR? It's just labeled "Def". I always though it was some sort of calculated run differential, given the numbers involved in the don't always correlate so well with the WAR values. Not really much of a counterpoint, I was just wondering. 2. That's actually not how average works. Just being 10th of 22 doesn't necessarily make you "above average." In this case, the average value in that DEF comumn is 7.8, so Bogaerts is right on the cusp, being the top name above the delimiting line. But given margin of error, he is probably about average. But if the 9 names above his all were credited with a total of one more point each - something completely independent of Bogaerts' fielding - Bogaerts would actually be below the calculated average. Would that make him "below average"? Really, if we have legitmate arguments for him being above average and below average, he is probably about average. And with his offense, that is more than acceptable...
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To me, the bottom line is - if you're worth more fWAR or bWAR with fewer IP, that should be an argument in your favor. After all, if a player hit 10 more home runs in 30 fewer at-bats, you don't hold it against him...
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Both fWAR and bWAR still have Sale for the AL leader. If his IP becomes an issue, Verlander (2nd in fWAR) and Blake Snell (2nd in bWAR) both do become legitimate candidates...
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There might be a non-tender or two in there. Also possible that a trade is made to clear out an arb-eligible player for someone who isn’t yet...
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Mengden caught Manea?
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Or at the very least, not repeatable year to year...
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I don’t. Pitchers typically do those deals in the NL, where they can get better numbers. The truly desperate pitchers go to San Diego to “prove” they still have it in the most ideal pitching environment in the league...
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Leon is replaceable. Vazquez signed a lucrative extension the Sox might not want to pay so he can play elsewhere. Lucroy is barely a catcher. Grandal and Ramos are better free agent targets. And the trade market is always possible (James McCann? Omar Narvaez? Tyler Flowers?)...
