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1. Personall,y I think only playrs on last place team should never get the award. The team could have finished there without him. But players have won the MVP on last place teams. 2. A DH should absolutely be considered for the award. Just because some all-hit, no-field player goes through the token act of putting on a glove doesn't make him more valuable, especially if his defense gives back a big part of what he just provided. 3. The problem with intangible arguments is they are so subjective. It's easily possible to make a case for and against any player once this becomes a factor. And since even the voting members of the BBWAA probably don't have the full story about intangibles for most players on teams they don't cover personally, these type of contributions are probably best left ignored. Or do people want to see Jose Ramirez beat out Betts for the award because some Cleveland beat writer was simply closer to the Guardians than any Boston pundit was, and was able to articulate a really compelling case about Jose's leadership that not one voting member could counter?

That's our only option. But I would put the chances of "Kimbrel takes less money to stay in Boston" on the list labeled "Pipe Dreams" long before I put it in the list of "Likely Outcomes". Right now, the 5yr/$100 mill is just some media speculation that can probably be found with a Google search here and there. But it isn't unreasonable given the recent contracts I have cited. It's probably not what the exact figure will be, but it's probably not far off, either. But what is your take on what you think Kimbrel is going to sign for? What do you think it will take to keep him in Boston?

Actually the Cubs might be a better match in terms of available money and they have the same need for a closer. Amd there are always surprise teams that get involved. Washington, for example, is not going to pass on Kimbrel because they have Sean Doolittle. They might pass on him for other reasons, like to focus on starting pitching, but they could certainly use another arm in the pen. The Angels are also trying to build a contender and have no closer to speak of. I would consider them a candidate as well...

Don't count on it. Price saying he wants to come back when no team is going to match the remaining money he is guaranteed in Boston is one thing. Kimbrel's situation is 100% different. But this is Kimbrel's first chance and best chance to score a big contract. He has been pitching his entire life for this offseason. It's his lottery ticket. He didn't hire an agent so that he could take a cheaper deal and come back to Boston. If he comes back to the Sox, it's going to be for the same boatload of cash he would take from any team...

Well, his track record in Detroit for signing expiring contracts was not really that good. That team is still stuck with Miguel Cabrera for 5 more years at $154million, and Cabrera is already closer to needing a wheel chair than he is to making an All Star team. We get the point that another pitcher isn't going to simply step in and pitch like Kimbrel did. Kimbrel himself might not even be able to. And, as fans, we have the luxury of loking at it one yaer at a time and solely focusing on talent. But Dombrowski doesn't have that luxury. And if Kimbrel's contract starts approaching the early speculation - which is not unreasonable - it should be a difficult decision to being him back, because there will be ramifications on future moves. And really, as Slasher pointyed out - how necessary is Kimbrel? The Sox have won 107 games and are 10 up on second place. Where would they be without Kimbrel? Maybe 7 games up? He isn't the difference in the division here. Betts, on the other hand, might be. He is a guy the Sox need to start focusing on ASAP, assuming he (and his agent) is willing. And it certainly is possible that DD has already put that in motion...

Especially those Francona-lead teams...

I wouldn't be surprised if both Kelly and Hembree made it. It's not like the other options are all that dazzling, and these are two guys he used all year long...

Actually, I think I might. The Guardians can throw 4 of the top 10 starting pitchers by fWAR at you. The Astros only have 3. It's a tough call. Both rotations overmatch the Sox rotation, even with Sale. The real big difference is the Guardians' bullpen is pretty bad, while the Astros is very good. But in a playoff series, I think I prefer going up against the team not managed by Terry Francona...

Yes there is a chance the Sox get a different declining reliever, but the idea is not for 5 years and not for $20mill per. If the Sox get Ottavino for 2 years, the likelihood he declines in 2 is less than the likelihood Kimbrel declines in five. And if he does, the wasted money is significantly less. It's like when the Sox signed Sandoval, I was on BDC saying the Sox would be better off acquiring Luis Valbuena. Well, it turned out that, like Sandoval, Valbuena also was pretty bad. But his deal was far less of n issue for the Angels than Sandoval's deal still is for Boston...

Yeah we all thought Cleveland was the most favorable ALDS opponent two years ago, too. Then they swept us...

I heard this team would be lucky to win 85 games...

That depends on the deals they get. If Kimbrel wants 5 years, like Jansen and Chapman received, set up guys like Ottavino were only looking at 2 year deals last year, which lines up better with Betts free agency and Benintendi's more costly arb years. Those 3 years make a big difference in a lot of ways. Also, while I can't see a match just yet, there is actually a realistic chance Dombrowski trades Bradley for a closer. The outfield defense will suffer in whichever corner JD Martinez plays, but finding a short term DH bat is usually not that difficult...

Primarily because he might be one of the top 7 options. Over the full season, Kelly has the third best fWAR among Sox relievers, behind only Kimbrel and Barnes. I do think Kelly and Poyner make the post-season roster. If you like using fWAR, Workman is more of a question mark, as he falls behind Hembree, Johnson, Marcus Walden, and Carson Smith in that category and is tied with Pomeranz...

I could see the first three, but Cuevas is a longshot and with 5.4 BB/9 this year in limited action, gives no indication that he is the solution to walking too many hitters. I still think Kelly makes the roster over the other options, but might be limited to less crucial situations...

That seems to be the early indication. He's 1-1 with a 2.11ERA and a 0.797WHIP against them this year, albeit in 3 starts and 21.1 IP. Rodriguez has been far less effective...

Whether or not pitching "in Boston" is supposed to be some sort of supernatural skill is not the issue with Kimbrel. He can have whatever magical mindset fans claim he needs, but that isn't going to stop him from turning 35 at some point in his next contract. Were Davis' issues solely related to Coors? He certainly struggled there, but it's not like he was stellar on the road. He might be a case of age turning into his decline...

The Rockies also threw a ton of money at proven relievers in McGee, Davis and Shaw, only to see that even relievers can lose some effectiveness with age, especially if injuries start to pile up. All three had their worst seasons. Also, McGee was not help from the outside, yet even he had one of the worst seasons of his career...

He might be, depending on what he has left from ages 31 to 35. In fact, it is entirely possible Kimbrel himself won't be a good replacement for Kimbrel. We've probably already seen his best days. That doesn't mean he immediately falls off a cliff come opening day in 2019, but certainly you should be expecting a slow decline over those years that hopefully does not give the signing team one or two years of a $20mill BP pitcher. Will a 33yo Kimbrel still be better than any alternatives? He will probably be pricier. I'd rather gamble on keeping as many Killer B's as possible. If you think Kimbrel will be tough to replace, how tough will Betts be?

Early media guesses. Again, given the deals for Chapman (5 years / $86mill), Kenley Jansen (5 years / $80mill) and Wade Davis (3 yrs / $52mill at age 33), it is actually a fairly realisitic estimate. Even if he doesn't get that, he will certainly be close, especially with 5 years...

It’s funny you single me out for asking about Bellhorn’s point. Also the $100mil/5 year is the framework being thrown around in the media. Given the deals Chapman and David received, it is not unrealistic. But if you’re in the “Kimbrel at any cost “ camp, not sure why that matters...

1. The years are king, as one or both deals might be shed before necessary. 2. It’s cheaper, because it fills two roles. And possibly more effectively.

Especially since getting hot in September is pretty meaningless, what with the league so full of AAA pitchers...

Don’t tell ARod or Andre Dawson...

There’s also a really good certainty that spending $100mill to watch Kimbrel decline leaves the Sox with $100mill less to spend re-signing Betts and/or Benintendi as they peak...

Losing Kimbrel and signing both, say, Jeurys Familia and Adam Ottavino for basically the same money might make for a better bullpen than signing Kimbrel alone. And both Familia and Ottavino are very unlikely to command five years...