notin
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Everything posted by notin
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So you’re saying JD absolutely positively opts out and accepts an offer with a lower AAV? You seem to have omitted one team from the possible candidates - the Red Sox. They’ll need a DH and will suddenly have an extra $20mill AAV to spend. Getting him back for 4/$75 only helps the Red Sox financial situation...
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Tampa was essentially a .500 team as late as August 1.
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I say offer it to him again. Use the strategy found on shampoo instructions Lather: Bring back Kimbrel at 1 year $17.9mill. Offer Josh Fields the same money he agreed to in LA ($2.2mill) Rinse: DFA Workman (or Thornburg, but I like Workman less) DFA Leon That just leaves the final step: Repeat...
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Clearly they did. None of that changes what Kimbrel might have thought he was worth, however...
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From who? It’s actually not too early to suggest the post-2019 candidates. Most of the perennial big spenders don’t appear to need him accept Boston, and the past two offseasons cannot be inspiring to any potential free agent over 30. And for all of the “there’s always a market for a .300 hitting 30HR player,” where was it for JD himself one year ago? When he was 2 years younger than he will be this off-season ? His best course of action might be to wait until after 2020, when he’s only leaving 2 years $39mill on the table. At that point, any deal better than 3yr/$51mill is better than your scenario. You might be vastly overvaluing his market appeal, much like you did with Pearce this off-season...
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So you’re assuming the Yankees are jettisoning one of Bird or Voit along with Ellsbury?
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But he also might be wondering “could I have gotten 6 years and $100mill?”
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Cinemax...
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Some feel German and Loasigia are ahead of Cessa for the rotation vacancies. The pen is also crowded, especially with Kahnle also out of options. And Chapman, Betances, Britton, Ottavino, Green and Holder occupying the other spots. The only way to keep him if the rotation is as predicted would be to demote Holder. Or trade/release Kahnle, which would be the stupidest solution of all. If the Yankees do keep that arrangement, I think Cessa gets dealt before opening day. But for now, they probably want to (and should) hold him just in case someone else gets hurt. Either way, I strongly suspect he isn’t dealt to Boston. Unless Team X trades for him and flips him there, which is not very likely...
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F If the Yankees are too concerned, they could think out of the box and put Grigorius at third base, reducing the frequency of his throws and giving him a little more time to make them. Then shift Andujar to 1b and put LeMahieu at 2b with Torres at SS and bench Bird/Voit...
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F If the Yankees are too concerned, they could think out of the box and put Grigorius at third base, reducing the frequency of his throws and giving him a little more time to make them. Then shift Andujar to 1b and put LeMahieu at 2b with Torres at SS and bench Bird/Voit...
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I hope they make changes. Even if Hernandez and Feltman both make the bullpen on opening at, how many reliable arms do the Sox have? Thornburg isn’t inspiring much confidence. Workman is Workman. With Brasier sidelined, Hembree is a frightening number two option. Johnson.... not my favorite subject. Brewer has had a rough spring and is a bizarre choice for “biggest off-season acquisition.” There are still some available arms out there - notably Josh Fields - who won’t break the bank. And Kimbrel, who while unlikely, can’t be written out yet either. And maybe an out of options arm, although not sure what will be available. (I liked Frankie Montas, Yimi Garcia, and Luis Cessa as the most likely cuts. But Montas has probably pitched his way into the Oakland rotation. Garcia was kept over Fields. And Cessa won’t be acquired via trade and likely won’t clear waivers first either.)
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Has Feltman even pitched yet this spring?
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Well, what did either really want? It’s a bad negotiation practice to make your first demand what you actually want. JD Martinez wanted over $200mill last year. He didn’t come close either. Both Kimbrel and Harper - and many other - free agents asked for exorbitant contracts in order to get as much as possible. Harper probably only wanted more money than Stanton got, which he achieved. Kimbrel probably only wanted the highest value or highest AAV for a closer. Kimbrel was never going to get $100mill. He knew it. His agent knew it. We all knew it. But his agent also knew that whatever Kimbrel wanted would be easier to get if he first asked for the moon. Just like JD, Harper, Machado, and lots of other free agents...
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But from this year’s market, Pollock is the best comp. Anyway, topping Pollock is hardly the goal here. Can he top $86.4mill over 4 years at age 32? I don’t think it’s the gimme you think it is...
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He got $330million. Which is closer than anyone else ever got...
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Ah Dan Clark. The “Men Without Hats” of the sports journalism world...
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Have you been shaving other heads for longer?
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I like the value of making the pitcher work, but getting on base is very important. There is a huge drop off in the percentage of innings where a run is scored if the first batter reaches base vs makes an out...
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I’m glad he held off taking the reigns. I really didn’t like freeforums much at all...
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That sounds like a matter to be discussed with Dan Szymborski...
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Why?
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Not true on several fronts 1. JD Martinez makes $23.8mill in 2019 and 2020. It’s not until 2021 and 2022 that he sees a salary drop all the way down to $19.4mill 2. In the last 3 years, Martinez was worth 11.9 fWAR. In his last 3 full seasons, AJ Pollock was worth 11.5 fWAR. (Pollock missed almost all of 2016.) 3. Only 6 players this off-season received contracts of 4 or more years. Of those 6, only 31 year old Pollock was over 30. Martinez will be 32 when this season ends. 4. While I would expect Martinez to top Pollock’s deal of 4 years $55mill, by how much? He has 4 years / $86.4 mill remaining if he never opts out, which he can do after 2019, 2020, or 2021. Will he even get a 4 year $86.4mill contract on the market now? No one was interested in him when he was 2 years younger 5. As his salary in 2020 is the same as 2018 and 2019, not sure why you would call it a “glorified two year contract.” Even if he waits until after 2020, he will still be collecting $23.4mill that year, likely more than he gets as a free agent. It might make sense for him to at least wait until after 2020, at a minimum...
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I’d trade Mata for Givens...
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It’s obviously way early, but the JD Martinez opt out isn’t necessarily a sure thing. If next year is anything like this year, he’ll probably wind up costing himself a lot if he opts out. The closest comp in terms of age and overall ability might be AJ Pollock, and his deal was nowhere near what JD still has remaining on his contract. Now AJ does have that whole “can’t stay on the field” thing, but how much is that worth?
