Well, the “not paying” part is really our interpretation of how this off-season is going to go.
It doesn’t look like Henry is going to have an unlimited budget and it does look like Dombrowski is going to prioritize Eovaldi. I’ve always figured Eovaldi was Plan A and Kimbrel is Plan B, but it doesn’t look like both plans can happen simultaneously for purely financial reasons.
That said, if we’re going to determine the cost of not having a closer, these rudimentary small sample size postseason-only techniques shouldn’t be how a closer gets evaluated. Per your argument, Familia can come into a game with the tying run in scoring position and no one out, induce 3 infield grounders that allow the run to score, and receive a label of not getting the job done. But Kimbrel can come in with a 2 run lead, walk the bases loaded, and escape because Andrew Benintendi made a catch he had no business making, and Kimbrel is clearly the guy. After all, he got the job done.
If the Sox do sign a closer, there are numerous free agents available with experience, not just Kimbrel. Familia is one of the better ones and his 9ph fastball is certainly a trait Dombrowski has historically coveted in any pitcher (like Eovaldi and Brasier, for example). But the failures of his defense and manager back in 2015 don’t make him a “discount closer” destined to fail in the postseason...