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Everything posted by notin
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Well, if the budget is allowed to go up from the current rumors, then anything can happen. But if we are as limited as some think, these 4 guys are not coming to Boston. Unless there is a subsequent salary-clearing deal like Porcello or Bogaerts. But honestly, I would just assume keep both Porcello and Bogaerts and try to get a closer another way...
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Really? If I set the over/under for Kimbrel's next contract at 3 yrs/$25mill, where is your bet?
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I doubt Kimbrel signs for less than Joe Kelly did, and anything above that appears to be out of the budget. But there are still plenty of good relievers available on the free agent market, and the Sox have a surplus or two to deal from. I think he can add two good relievers to this team...
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Maybe it's time someone told you....
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Porcello’s contract might be one of the most perfectly timed contracts in MLB. He probably won’t have better years than his ones in Boston under that contract. It kicked in as he was peaking, and will probably end close to when he starts declining...
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The Sox might be "in on" Ottavino, but how far in? I haven't heard anything about an offer. I haven't much in the way of any offers for Ottavino, so I suspect once he gets a few, the Sox drop out. If they do go heavy on a reliever, they might have to shed payroll elsewhere. I doubt Henry adopts the "let's go for it one more time" attitude. That strikes me as more of a pipe dream from the fans than the logic employed by a billionaire businessman. I do think DD adds two more relievers (and possibly jettisons Thornburg). One more signing that will make no one's nipples explode with delight. And there will likely be a trade, since we have an issue with an overcrowded roster on the bench...
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It he’s not signing a one year deal either. Unlike us fans, Dombrowski doesn’t have the luxury of looking solely at 2019 and has to consider all the future ramifications on his payroll. If he doesn’t do that, he isn’t doing his job...
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The early indications are that he appears to be reigning it in somewhat. But Dombrowski was hired for his baseball acumen and while getting a good reliever or two on a budget is certainly more difficult, it’s something he should be able to do one way or another...
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My bad. I’ve heard numerous roposals for salary floors and ceilings. I do think MLB owners would probably like this, but the MLBPA would not....
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But draft picks in baseball are an even bigger crapshoot than other sports. Most picks after the first round turn out to be useless or marginal, and even first round picks, which typically carry the majority of future value in any draft, only have a 70% success rate for even making an MLB roster, let alone contributing. Not to mention, by the time they start contributing, they’re approaching free agency and pricing themselves out of the small market range. Your “home team discount” plan also does nothing but widen the talent gap between small and large markets. Those teams don’t lose players due to financial penalties...
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What exactly is his ridiculous standard? He's only had a fWAR higher than 1.5 one time since he left the Braves. When he was on the Braves, he never had one below 2.3...
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Because the successful and popular teams need someone to play against. All these teams are part of the same business...
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Gee, typically you look at the fWAR of the players, but then Holt (1.4) would be better than Knebel (1.0). Was Knebel really the closer last year? He lost the job to Jeremy Jeffress and was demoted to the minors at one point (which may have lead to another year of control). He did lead the team with 16 saves, but Knebel only had 2 saves after July 27th. Could they get better for Holt? Maybe, but Holt had 367 PA's and a 109 OPS+ while playing 6 positions last year and is a former All Star. If one likes post-season stats, he has a .976 OPS in the last 3 post-seasons. He's not a bad player at all and certainly not just a utility player...
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Brock Holt for Corey Knebel also fills a big need on each team by dealing from a surplus on the other. The big stumbling block might be Holt having one year of service time while Knebel has 3. But Milwaukee might be fine with one year while waiting for Keaton Hiura to take over 2b...
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But those circumstances create a certain amount of parity...
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That’s because baseball has parity that gets lost in volume. The best teams in baseball win about 60% of their games and the worst teams still win about 40%. Picture a season where every team in the NFL was in between 10-6 and 6-10. That’s where MLBis, but with 10x the number of games...
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But what team will want one year of Moreland or one year of Nunez? I can see a few teams wanting one year of Holt, including Oakland, San Diego, Minnesota, Houston, the Yankees (not likely), Atlanta, and Cleveland. Not all these teams might be willing to part with a reliever for him, however. Nunez can be the starter at 2b. If both players are healthy, he’s probably the better option anyway. It’s easy to forget after his great season and postseason, but Holt isn’t that far removed from hitting .200 in only 140 at bats himself. He might be a good sell high option...
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Trading is a distinct possibity. The Sox have four players on their roster who are or have been supersubs - Holt (1b, 2b, 3b, ss, lf, cf, rf), Nunez (2b, 3b, ss, lf, rf), Swihart (c, 1b, 2b, 3b, lf, rf) and Pearce (1b, 2b, 3b, lf, rf). Now each player may not be so capable at each position anymore, but all have been tried all over the place. 4 super subs and only 3 roster spots. The most tradable is probably Holt, since he’s coming off a great season and makes very little. Nunez is probably actually a better all around player, but is coming off a gimpy knee. If the Sox trade former All Star Holt, who only has one season of control left, they still might be able to get a good reliever. Would you trade Holt for Mychael Givens or Kirby Yates? Or someone else? One year of Brock Holt for one year of Will Smith makes some sense for both teams....
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Ok but his 5.44 ERA from 4 years ago shouldn’t be weighed as equally as his ERA from 2018. A career ERA does exactly that. Career ERA ignores that he’s gotten better every year. The Sox might opt for a setup guy like Alex Wilson or AJ Ramos or Shawn Kelley or Brandon Maurer and give Barnes a shot at the ninth...
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I think Dombrowski is simply waiting out the market for the bigger names to fill some of the voids around the league and hoping for a bargain on someone like Cody Allen. Worst case is the journeyman types lie Jim Johnson or Brad Brach...
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One thing about Barnes - while his career ERA is 4.14, it’s probably worth noting that it has gotten better every year. Not that ERA is the best measure for a closer. When you only pitch 60 IP per season, each earned run raises it a full 0.15. So one bad 4 run inning, and it goes up 0.60...
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If they’ve spent near their limit, then there is no money to be found. The only alternative is to free up some cash. Would you trade Porcello or Bradley or Bogaerts to free up some cash (and potentially acquire a closer)?
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It really helps if you completely forget that the Sox and Yankees played 6 times in the final 12 games of the season in games that meant more to the Yankees than the Sox (as Oakland was still within a theoretical striking distance for home field). The Yankees went 4-2 in those games....
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The different schedules account for some of the run differential as well. The Sox won 108 regular season games while playing 38 games against 2 teams that combined for over 190 wins....
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So if the Sox used Matt Barnes as closer, why would that be so bad? Sure, you can say he was inconsistent last year. But so was Kimbrel, especially in the second half. And the “you get what you pay for” argument might fall on deaf ears to a team still carrying Pablo Sandoval. In fact, at some point nearly all free agents defy that logic. Not to mention the argument against Edwards (yes he’s in arb years, but so are several Sox pitchers) and Chavez (yes he threw 39IP, but fWAR is a cumulative stat) aren’t really good arguments. If Chavez hit 30 HRs in 100 ABs, would you argue “but it’s only 100 ABs!!!”
