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There’s still about a dozen or so experienced closers on the market, and a few more who are free agents next season who might be available via trade. If the budget concerns are real, I don’t expect Kimbrel, Britton or Ottavino. If there is no budget limit for DD, I lean towards him signing Robertson (whom we know will go as low as 3 years). Otherwise, I think the Sox trade for a reliever. Worst case is Barnes closes...

Also not sure why you find Wohlers’ opinion on the subject so worthless. The man was an All Star closer after all. While him home run to Leyritz certainly wasn’t a high point, the it also may not have ruined his career. He did save 33 games in 1997. In 1998 he had his infamous bout with Steve Blass disease, but that may have been more related to a divorce he was going through at the time...

Three blown saves. Not 3 saves. Huge difference. It is possible you underestimate the number of saves that get converted. Boxberger was one of, if not the worst, and he was successful 80% of the time. (Edwin Diaz was successful 93% of the time, so there is the range.) I do think Dombrowski is going to get a good back of the pen arm, likely via trade. But absolute worst case scenario for the 2019 Sox is Matt Barnes, who I would expect to be a great deal better than Boxberger....

Let’s play bWAR as was proposed. Last year the worst closer was Brad Boxberger with 8 blown saves (Kimberly had 5! A difference of 3! Mark Wohlers was right!) in 40 chances for an 80% success rate. Given the same 47 chances Kimbrel had, Boxberger would get 37.6 saves at his current conversion rate, or 4.4 saves less than Kimbrel. Boxberger was valued at -0.7 bWAR, or 3.5 fewer wins than Kimbrel and his 2.8, putting bWAR values within 1 win. Now not every blown save is a losss. If we assume one of Boxberger’s 4.4 extra blown saves is a win, the numbers match up.

It’s not that we don’t value it. It’s that that relationship is largely unknown to fans watching. And really, a good defensive catcher could and should be able to establish himself with the pitchers. It might not be as personal as I am inferring, but catchers routinely work with12 plus pitchers on the staff as part of the job. So they are probably used to dealing with new pitchers. Now I have heard Cora would like a defensive 3b. I do doubt that happens. The Sox presently have 5 players battling for 4 bench spots, which is already too difficult to resolve (although there is no rush to right now). I would agree the Sox will add two relievers with names and quality depending on the budget. Beyond that? Maybe a catcher, but we are getting into some less likely territory here. But I could definitely see upgrading starting catcher as a higher priority than backup 3b, especially if DD starts looking at catcher as an area of need. I think the 6th starter is already here in Brian Johnson. Same for the seventh if Wright is healthy. But hey, I have no problem with minor league pitching contracts. But does this mean you want Buchholz back?

And let us all be thankful this team was never owned by Carl Pohlad...

Or Philadelphia...

The more I think about it, I’d actually prefer they signed Harper, because it would mitigate their need for an outfielder when Betts’ contract is up. The downside is - whoever doesn’t sign Harper still has the money and needs an outfielder...

Dozier and LaMahieu as well. The big reason is most of the players to sign have taken deals of two years or less. Theee players all likely want longer deals that are just not being offered...

In some ways, I can see that. Really I think his legacy rests more on 2020. Right now he is still benefiting heavily from a roster that isn’t in flux. But once Sale and Bogaerts are up for free agency and Betts enters his final year, he will have an immense job keeping any momentum going....

Dombrowski is doing better than Cherington already, but criticism of Dombrowski doesn’t mean praise for Cherington, much in the same way criticism of Cora (which there was a whole thread on) isn’t praise for Farrell or Valentine or Francona. All independent. I’ve praised Cherington more than a lot of people, but I’ve criticized him as well. I did not like his failure to trade any prospects, for example. I also hated the Sandoval contract before the ink was dry. (I never pawned his bad moves off on Lucchino, whom I have also defended more than most people.) I don’t think Cherington deserved the same legacy some want to leave for him. He did pull the team out of an awful situation he didn’t create and turn a rebuild trade into a title in one year. Not sure why so few find that unimpressive. I like Dombrowski more than I thought I would when he was hired, but that doesn’t mean everything he has ever done or is going to do gets to be above criticism. I am still hesitant to say DDis better than Epstein was for the Sox. The man ended the title drought while rebuilding the farm and then won another title quickly. But even Epstein wasn’t perfect...

I was going to say before April 1, but I gave him another month in case they didn’t sign Machado...

True in almost all cases. While the Sox don’t have an abundance of prospects to deal from, they can certainly get at least one impact reliever...

He’ll be released again before May 1...

And you accuse other people of trolling....

I’d rather have Pedroia, Chavis and Johnson...

True. Feltman should be in AA. He’s also not on the 40 man roster like the other three. Bullpen is the obvious highest priority. Catcher is just another possibility, although it’s nowhere near as likely. It’s the one position where neither upgrading nor standing pat would surprise me. MLBTR did an article on how each team has handled their weakest position from last year. Boston’s weakest was catcher. It certainly doesn’t mean any change is imminent, but I think that catcher isn’t necessarily going to remain status quo, either. Hernandez might be a solid bullpen core piece, but if the Sox are going to make any trades, you have to think he is one of the more desirable pieces to acquire for other teams. Feltman might be as well. And the Sox will have to give up something if they want to make a trade...

I can see that. But it’s not like the players are unaware of the reset (we are, safe assumption they are as well) and the Yankees will certainly up their spending this off-season, presumably getting closer to a 40% spending...

So is the point that the Yankees showed some restraint here?

It’s possible they were only focusing on players slated to be in AAA. That could be a mere coincidence but it certainly applies here. But I would think Hernandez should be more likely than Sharwyn, simply because he is actually on the 40-man roster. While probably not considered, it is also possible Hernandez is traded this off-season. He certainly gained some notoriety in the AFL that puts him on the radar of other GMs over most of the Sox farm. If DD is going to plug holes and maintain the budget estimates, he’s going to need tradable pieces. Chavis and Dalbec are certainly tradable. And Hernandez might be another trade candidate for a package to get a reliever or, if DD so inclines, an upgrade at catcher...

I have mixed emotions on that subject. I don’t want to see them get better. But I really don’t want to see them get Betts...

Kimbrel’s second half numbers actually weren’t much different than the second half numbers of 0.0 bWAR closers like Cody Allen and Bud Norris. The Sox might have had a worse record with either of these two (both of whom also appear more likely than Kimbrel to be the Sox closer in 2019), but certainly not worse enough to finish behind New York. While the”what if” game is impossible to prove, we’re talking about an eight game difference here. That’s a lot, especially in an era where closers rarely if ever handle tough saves. But then if the Sox didn’t have Kimbrel, the closer probably would not have been a 0.0 bWAR reliever. The worst case scenario is probably Barnes as closer, and right now by virtue of being here, he’s the front runner for that role, at least until some other deal happens. So if Barnes was closing instead of Kimbrel, how much worse would the Sox have really been? I think that question rests more on who had to replace Barnes in the bullpen. Which might be the plan for 2019...

At this point, negotiations with Sale and Bogaerts are not likely to do much except maybe pay them the contracts they would earn in free agency anyway. Bogaerts is a Boras client, and Boras famously disagrees with his clientele signing “team friendly” extensions. Either could be signed, but the Sox have very little in the way of leverage to negotiate from, what with both players one year away from free agency. They are in a better position with Betts, but Mookie reportedly has turned down extensions in the past when they made more sense for him. Any extension for Betts would be enormous and basically be the same deal he’d get as a free agent. The Sox will certainly be in a better position to re-sign Betts if the Yankees sign Machado and the Dodgers sign Harper, since both notorious high spenders will have less budget to work with. The less competition the better...

It was an extremely predictable outcome and unnecessary at the time...

I was not wrong in thinking that he has been declining at an exponential rate since that extension started, regardless of the date ink was put on paper...