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Per sportrac, the Sox should have $56mill to spend before reching the $208mill limit. Out of that $56mill, they have to pay the arbitration raises for whoever they offer them to from Betts, Bradley, ERod, Benintendi, Barnes, Hembree, Wright, and Workman. If JD opts out, that number climbs to $78million. If Betts, Erod, Benintendi, Barnes and Workman all get offered arb and come in around $50mill, they still have some room to spend and stay under. Just not much room if JD stays put...

I would think so. When you do less, you reduce the chances of injury. Unless all that time on the bench between at bats gave him hemorrhoids...

In a truly bizarre scenario, if the Sox are without some combo of Bradley, Mookie and JD Martinez, it is entirely possible Rusney Castillo makes the MLB club next season. The Sox are paying him anyway, and the only real savings is on the luxury tax. If they are under the limit and there is no tax to pay, there is that much less of a reason to keep him in Pawtucket Purgatory. (I know it will be Worcester Purgatory next year, but I like alliteration.) Of course, there is always the very real chance that he just flat out sucks, which would be a very real reason to keep him in AAA...

I'd rather see Eovaldi gone. But the only way that happens is if someone equally cumbersome comes back. The Sox won the wrong bidding war there...

If they can keep him and achieve their financial goal, whatever it is, they should. If JD opts out or gets traded, it is that much easier to keep Mookie and reset...

Maybe his strategy involves shooting the right crap...

But they paid a very high price to get that contract, and you can't overlook that. And the fallout was an increase in the valuation of the closer around the league. Because certainly, every agent representing an elite closer saw that trading for one even at full cotnract price suddenly got very steep and enabled them to ask for outrageous money for their clients...

He might bounce back, but years of control is a strong influence in trade value as well. He may or may not get better. But his years of control is only going to go in one direction and one direction only...

The values they have for Barnes and Benintendi are updated, based on the number of years remaining on the table. Of course, both could change depending on what the players actually receive in arbitration. As for me, Barnes is the clear outlier. He is a good pitcher, but his true value is diminished by the fact that he can't seem to pitch effectively on back-to-back days. That's a big deal for a high leverage reliever. If the Sox can find a team willing to take him on at anything close to that calculated value, they should do it and move on. Using the values on that sight (which cannot take certain factors into account, like whether or not the other GM actually wants a player), the Sox should be able to trade Barnes straight up to the Dodgers for rookie RHSP Tony Gonsolin. If the Dodgers, who are annually looking for a reliever to help Jansen, would make this trade, the Sox should do it and not look back...

In no way will either be replaced with anything close to equal...

And two years later, the "DH only" label is attached to him. If he opts out this year, he loses money...

Even the bigger contracts for Chapman and Davis were money only. Not top tier money plus surrender top prospects. And the valuation of those contracts was probably influenced by the overpay for Kimbrel...

Will they have to rearrange their lockers as well?

If the Sox want to make a huge splash in the trade market, they could trade Devers (which they won't). If the Sox traded Devers to the Braves, he would be worth a package of Christian Pache, Ian Anderson and Bryse Wilson or a package of Drew Waters, Austin Riley and Kyle Wright. That is some serious value...

IMO the Sox should trade JD (if he stays), Barnes and Dalbec. Trading ERod just creates another void in the rotation...

No. Rafael Devers has the most value in a trade. Baseballtradevalues ranks Rodriguez fifth in trade value among Sox players, behind Devers, Bogaerts, Betts and Benintendi and just ahead of Barnes and JD Martinez. It is worth pointing out that the value for ERod is a mid-season value they have not yet updated. The values for Martinez and Devers also need updating. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/604/

IMO the only dumb trade was the Kimbrel deal. To give up two top 100 prospects plus another for one of the highest paid closers and still taking on the full contract. And San Diego was a bad team. In no way did they want to keep the contract of a pricey closer. Not to mention, the Sox problem in 2015 was the rotation. Having a great closer and a weak rotation doesn't really do much for you. There were so many reasons to think this deal was just silly, especially at that price...

Slasher would have won 3 World Series titles. THat's what he is saying. I can't definitively prove him wrong..

That's really not the option you think it is. There is a set date for him to opt out. Typically these are shortly after the World Series. At that point, JD has to make a decision. If he opts out, he is a free agent. If he does not, he has no say in anything the Sox do with regards to him, and Boras has no power to stop any trades. This isn't an NTC where he can veto the trade but might approve it if some condition is met. There is nothing to negotiate. At some point in the near future, JD has a choice. Opt out and become a free agent or do not opt out and leave his fate is in the hands of whoever is running the Sox. In 2020, JD Martinez will make $23.75million. In 2021 and 2022, he will make $19.35mill each year. If he opts out now, he is walking away from $62.5mill over the next 3 years, but he will recoup $2.5mill per the OP. If he opts out next year, it;s only $38.7mill over 2 years. If he does not opt out this year, he will next year. JD will be entering his age 32 season next year. The highest paid contract for a player entering his age 32 season last year was for Michael Brantley at 2 years / $32mill. While Martinez should be able to get a higher AAV, I doubt he gets too many more years the way the market has been treating 30+ year old free agents. (AJ Pollock was one year younger than JD will be and did get a 4 year $50mill contract. But even that is less than what JD would be leaving on the table.) The ever-predictable Scott Boras will advise him to wait one more year before opting out. If JD chooses to listen is another matter. But he didn't hire Boras for the purpose of ignoring his advice...

Even with the $2.5mill, he is likely to make less money than if he does not opt out.

He's most definitely among the best DHs in the game. He will be a loss...

I remember when he was hired, the Sox farm was headlined by Beninteni, Moncada, Kopech and Espinoza. Someone on BDC, possibly you, commented that “two of those 4 would never play for the Sox.” Whoever it was was close. And their sarcasm fell short of reality...

Written guarantees of what? They’re already player options. And JD doesn’t have any no trade protection that would allow to make demands before approving a trade. All JD can do is opt out if he doesn’t want to be dealt. And he isn’t guaranteed to get 3 years $62million in this market at his age...

Oh I assume Porcello is already done in Boston and Bradley is into his last 4 innings...

Extending Devers this year does seem like it would counter any plans to reset, which is good news...