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Everything posted by notin
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I'd call dealing off all 4 a blow up. Just get rid of one mega-contract and fill a few holes. An offense lead by Betts, Martinez, Bogaerts, and Devers is a great foundation. Trade Bradley. Get a 1b/2b, CF and a couple SPs. Call it a day...
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If the Sox could trade all 4, that means they could trade Price and Eovaldi. If they can trade one of those two, stop there...
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He's an innings-eater. Pettitte never had an xFIP as high as the 4.45 Montgomery had in his 2.6 fWAR season, and never gave up 1.22 HR/9. An innings-eater is a good thing to have in the rotation, but once they start having injury problems like TJ, the ability to eat those innings gets diminished...
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That's Rule #1 in the Notin Guidebook for MLB GMs. However, no GMs read it, and for plenty of good reasons. Free agency is really more about PR than about team building anyway. It's a way to tell your fanbase "we are willing to spend money to make this team better, so you should be willing to spend money to come and see it."
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It does look like one of Betts, Martinez, Price or Eovaldi has to go. From those 4, I prefer it be either Price or Eovaldi. But Betts is clearly the most desirable for any team hoping for a title run in 2020...
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I thought it was Warren Spahn who said that...
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I kind of hope he can acquire Josh Osich a few more times...
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That simulator just tells you if a trade is fair using projected WAR and projected/guaranteed salaries for the players involved. It can't accomodate whether players are clubhouse leaders/cancers or a GMs desire to keep or deal a player. And hey, sometimes GMs make bad trades. (Actually lots of times.) Really what it does it gives you an idea if a trade is fair for both sides using the criteria previously discussed. I know a lot of people are poo-pooing it, but the old way for fans to propose trades was almost always lopsided. Go to the Yankee thread where Meh proposed the Yankees could get Syndergaard and Edwin Diaz for Miguel Andujar, Clint Frazier, Holder and Mike Ford. That's the classic "we can get anything for one really good player and table scraps that fill holes" proposals that still fill the internet to this day (and I've made them myself). At the very least, BTV is objective and I keep kicking myself for not thinking of it first, especially since I have used a similar one on fantasyp.com for fantasy football trades...
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Actually it couldn't be done because one of the players the Orioles got was not in the simulator. But it was remarkably underwhelming with the players it did have...
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The Seattle firesale continues. Narvaez to the Brewers...
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How can you tell if Sale has lost his velocity? It's been all over the place for years. Over his career, his FB velocity has gone from 96.1 to 95.3 to 91.6 to 93.1 to 93.8 to 94.5 to 92.8 to 94.4 to 94.7 to 93.2 last year. According to Microsoft Excel, his velocity next year will be 93.4. And here is the funny part. No matter how hard Sale throws, he has Cy Young caliber seasons. Last year was the first time since 2012 that Sale did not finish in the top 6 for Cy Young. (Ironically, the two other year he didn't - 2010 and 2011 - were the two years he had the most velocity.
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You’re still looking at over a half of a century of Rule 5 picks. Granted, that list does have multiple MVPs (Bell, Hernandez) and multiple Cy Young winners (Hernandez, Dickey). But for the most part, the success rate is pretty low ...
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That's ok. I have a 2016 Volkswagen Golf. It's almost like a Porsche 911 GT3. Just a few differnence. Like for starters, it's a station wagon...
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Are they really so far apart? Eovaldi's ERA+ is 5% off of Wheeler's. Their WHIP differs by 0.08, which is 8 hits or walks per 100 IP, or about 12 per 150 IP season. They both have had very significant injury histories. Atthose prices, I take Eovaldi as the better deal...
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The 2019 Porsche 911 GT3 still has one. I take it you're more of a Ferrari guy...
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Maybe we can get Christian Pache for Price despite not being able to get him for Betts
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No. Everything Dombrowski did...
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Even in Florida? Figured they'd be a bigger deal there since the biggest hill in south Florida is the pitcher's mound at Marlins Park...
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Dombrowski was the Uber of trade market pricing...
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After looking at Wheelr's contract, maybe I have been too critical of Eovaldi's. Possibly even Price's. It just proves the old adage that I just made up right now. "It's better to be the guy who drives up the market price than the guy who has to pay it later."
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Very true. I have one in my car...
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It's also easy to get behind the trade where the guy we gave up got injured and has not pitched since and might even retire within the next 24 months. But I asked earlier - would you have traded Betts and Swihart for Hamels? Or Nomar for Denny Neagle? (I think I botched his name earlier.) Both were real trade proposals (per the Boston media) at a time when the Sox had a serious need for pitching...
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I think you might be oversimplifying this. Pomeranz was controlled for 2 1/2 seasons and didn't cost $30mill. Given that he had recently appeared in an All Star game and was having a breakout season for very little money, he did make sense as an acquisition for that cost. When the Orioles dealt Machado to the Dodgers, did the Orioles get Keibert Ruiz or Alex Verdugo? Those were the Dodgers two prospects at the time. The O's did get Yusniel Diaz, their 4th ranked prospect, and a lot of spare parts. Diaz was #73 on Baseball Prospectus list, and unranked by anyone else. If teams require an extension - and certainly some will - then Betts will be in RF and the Sox might look elsewhere for salaries to move...
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So we can back to some productive posting on this Red Sox forum!!!!
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Cole Hamels is a Brave
