notin

And Correa wasn't the most obvious number one overall pick. He was in the discussion, but so were Kevin Gausman, Kevin Zimmer and Mark Appel (who Houston later drafted #1 overall and was one of those whiffs you alluded to). But Correa was considered the easiest to sign of the three, and the Astros used that savings to afford Lance McCullers with their next pick. It also helped that Correa actually worked out better than anyone else taken early in that draft...

You might be understiating the Rays. That they could take Houston to 5 games alone should indicate that they re no pushover. They won as many games against the Astros in a 5 game series as the Yankees did in a 7 game series. Also, the Astros ans National (and Dodgers tht you omitted) might lose a lot when those pitchers leave, but the Yankees also might lose a lot if Chapman leaves. And the Astros do get a full season of Greinke next year...

I ripped the Offerman signing when DD made it, but the guy did have a .391 OBP his first year in Boston, and he had a .364 OBP and .757 OPS in his first 3 seasons in Boston. He actually was not that bad at the plate. Defensively, he could only play 1b, however...

The only issue might be a physical one. He had some back issues that might be exacerbated by playing 1b. Maybe that was the issue? If the Sox play him at 1b, that's fine with me. There is still time to implement that if he doesn't opt out. And while 1b might be the easiest defensive position to field and therefore to fill, that's only true if you don't count DH...

That's the exact scenario the Sox should be aiming for. If they're the biggest spender whose reset the luxury taxes, they are in a great position to sign Mookie after 2020. The only thing that might work against them is if Mookie just wants to play in another city for some reason. Maybe he likes change. But even if that happens, you should at least get more for him by trading him one year early than you are likely to get from a single compensatory draft pick...

Unless you think Henry should put out a hit on Price, I don't think it's going to matter. Price isn't getting traded. Unless the Sox give up something else with him that we prefer to keep, like Devers...

Mostly because that is more likely to kill Dalbec's value than inflate it. Dalbec may or may not hit, but we can both agree not hitting is easier. But he can field. If you want to maximize his value, you showcase him as a 3b. At 1b, it only work out if he hits. But if he comes out of the gate at .182/.282/.410, what's next, besides looking for another 1b? I call the Guardians today and offer Dalbec (surplus value of $18.8mill per baseballtradevalues.com) for Aaron Civale (surplus value $18.2mill). 1b can be filled a multitude of other ways...

No one is suggesting trading thr next Devers. Just the first Dalbec, When Devers was Dalbec's age... wait, he hasn't gotten there yet. I'll finish this post in 15 months...

I somehow interpreted your proposal to be a trade of Bradley for Mancini. Chalk up my mistake to a temporary bout of complete illiteracy. But the Sox shouldn't trade Benintendi. Especially if Betts and Bradley are not coming back. Even if they get back one OF like Mancini for Benintendi (which is a lopsided deal in favor of Baltimore - NOT an overwhelming offer for Boston), it's not like the Sox have an abundance of outfielders in the minors. The idea of a outfield with Mancini, Cole Sturgeon, and Rusney Castillo is tantamount to screaming "We surrender" loud enough to be heard at both poles simultaneously. And Jarren Duran doesn't change this. And I wouldn't trade Benintendi for Mancini at gunpoint...

Price was coming off a season with a career high 6.7 fWAR and his average fastball velocity was up a full mph over the previous season when the Sox signed him. Not sure where you get your stuff, but you're not going to shake your reputation for denigrating all things Red Sox while praising all things Yankee with statements like this...

If the Sox trade Dalbec, I could see it for the following players that makes sense (and work per baseballtradevalues.com): To the Angels for OF Brandon Marsh (.811 OPS in AA last year). The Angels could move La Stella back to 2b and Marsh is blocked by Trout, Upton and Jo Adell in the Anaheim OF. To the Braves for RHP Bryse Wilson (3.42 ERA in AAA). This would mean the Braves prefer Austin Riley in the OF, which may or may not be likely. To the Brewers for OF Trent Gresham and RHP Freddy Peralta. Assuming the Brewers let Moustakas walk. Gresham is a bit of a post-season goat, but 2 prospects for 1 prospect seems like a stretch here. I would make this deal, but it's not my top choice. To the Twins for RHP Jhoan Duran. Sano can go replace Cron at 1b, who will be non-tendered. Duran probably doesn't start the season in Boston. But it's fun to think of Sox announces having to differentiate between Jhoan Duran and Jarren Duran (no relation). To the Cubs for Kyle Schwarber: Bryant can play LF. Schwarber is basically Dalbec without the defense, so no idea where he fits in Boston unless JD opts out and is not re-signed. Hard pass. To the Guardians for RHP Aaron Civale. The Guardians are reportedly looking for offense at 2b or 3b, with Jose Ramriez taking the other position. Civale is a Northeastern alum who gave the Guardians a 2.34 ERA (3.40 FIP) in 57 IP last year. This one is my top choice, and not remarkably unlikely. But please, no Ockimey or Travis in Boston. Every time you write that, it makes me cry...

We can do it with Microsoft AI, according to Common...

And got taken out by Bruce Kison and the Pirates in the World Series for the first time...

FTFY I don't thnk the Sox can afford to "give up" on seasons with the money they have tied up in Price, Sale, and Eovaldi. Price's days are numbered and he is rapidly approaching the declining years in his deal. I think that alone means that if they want to win again, they need to strike before he becomes a huge contractual deadweight...

I remember when Yanees' fans said that about Kevin Maas.

Exactly, and even then. it's not like this guy has missed multiple seasons and rarely shown up for work or seen diminished ability. He's not Dylan Bundy...

The names are obviously right, but I do not agree with the roles. No way is Montgomery in the rotation while Happ is in the bullpen. I know you were impressed with Montgomery's 2.6 fWAR in his last year, but he gained that value as an innings-eater. But once an innings-eater has TJ surgery, you cannot count on that same value going forward. It's not like he was that great of a pitcher. I think at some point Deivi Garcia will work his way into the bullpen, probably in a role created by moving Cessa, Heller, or (my choice) Loasigia...

Strasburg has had an excellent career all around. But as he came out of college with all kinds of hype and isn't in among the handful of best pitchers in MLB, he gets viewed as a disappointment and, possibly by some, a bust. I wish the Sox had disappointing prospects like Strasburg...

While stupidity happens, it's even stupider to count on it. baseballtradevalues.com gives Bradley a surplus trade value of $1.2 milllion. That same site gives Mancini a surplus trade value of $19.7million. With Bradley having one year left at $10-12mill and Mancini reaching arbitration for the first time this offseason, this deal could not make less sense for the bottom-feeding Orioles. Unless the Red Sox did something equally stupid, like included Dalbec...

... which is in complete agreement with your previous statement...

No. If you collect or analyze an incomplete sample, that is a form of Selection Bias done by the collector/analyst. Not the data...

I think we were all hoping that, but there may have been a reason it never happened. I would think that JD had some back issues might have been a factor. JD was brought in to hit. They left him in a role that emphasized that. And it's not like the Sox had some other bat only/no glove player waiting in the wings to fill a vacated DH role. And, the Sox did have Moreland and Pearce. As for this coming year, I am hoping the Sox just slide Devers over to 1b and put Dalbec in at third. Although they will probably leave Devers at third and try Dalbec at first...

What else was DD supposed to give him? Owings was in the middle of a season that had him among the worst players in MLB, nd coming off a 2018 that didn't inspire much confidence, but he had something in his history that at least made him look like a serviceable MLB player. He was actually useful in 2016 and 2017, where he combined for a .736 OPS and played all over the diamond. Cora batting him leadoff was just flat out stupid.

It's actually a good idea to bring in some of these fringle MLB players over relying on the farm because, despite their very low likelihood of making an impact, they are still MLB talent, even at the bottom of the barrel, which is something that doesn't necessarily apply to players on the farm. Gorkys Hernandez in particular made a lot of sense despite his complete lack of exciting ability, because the Sox farm system is all but bereft of outfield talent. We as fans might think "Why not just bring up Jarren Duran? He can't be any worse than Gorkys." The problem with that logic is, he absolutely can be worse that Gorkys, and potentially by a lot. If, say, Bradley got hurt for a prolonged period, was that the time to find out that Jarren Duran cannot even make contact with an MLB fastball? Especially if it happened in May?

I doubt JD opts out, but even if he does, I still think the Sox bring him back at a lower AAV but for more years...