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I’d say it’s pretty naive to think the Sox have absolutely no chance at winning if they trade Betts and Price. Were you one of those who said the Cardinals had no chance in 2011 when Wainwright went down for the year with Tommy John? And yet they still won it all. (For the record, I was among those who said they had no chance when Wainwright went down.)

It does if it positions the Red Sox to pay him more than any other team is willing to offer him...

My bet is the trade Betts but don't trade Price. (Odds?) My strategy would be to deal Price (plus cash?) to Texas for Rougned Odor. But Bloom never returns my calls

And I might flap my arms and fly to the moon...

I thunk the problem is, the choices are either 1) trade Betts and reset or 2) don't reset. And the goal not a mandate is to reset...

What if the trade Betts and Price and then win the World Series anyway?

It is probably the right move long term. But it has a chance at making 2020 a rough season. But then it depends what happens the rest of the off-season, too...

There’s nothing wrong with the sport. The problem was the Sox were run by a President whose solution to everything was to either throw prospects at it or to sign someone to a mega deal. The Sox payroll is about a QUARTER OF A BILLION dollars. They could easily afford to keep Betts if DD had not casually thrown $280 million at Price and Eovaldi. Or whose solution to Sale’s elbow problem was a $145 mill extension. Or who decided the team needed an ace, so he spent $217 mil to get one. Then decided “Not enough” and cleared out the minor league system for another. Or whose desperation to ditch his reputation for ignoring bullpens cleaned out even more prospects and actual major leaguers. If you liked how DD built the title team, great. But these are repercussions from that mad dash of transactions that refused to acknowledge the existence of the future. This team spent a quarter of a billion last year. That they might not be able to afford Betts is not a problem with the game. The only problem with the Sox is they didn’t spend it wisely...

Or Boston or Tampa. So he could hurt the Yankees...

... which leads to an interesting question. If the Sox could only lock up one of Devers or Betts, which would be the better option? The advantage to Betts is that Devers is still under control for a while, but also it means he will be gone during his peak years. The advantage to Devers is he will not cost nearly the same as Betts to lock up (maybe half per year while delaying free agency a season or two), giving the Sox more financial flexibility...

If they aren’t, all the more reason to deal Betts. The Sox don’t have much in the way of internal low cost options...

The simulator agrees Pederson is not enough, but I would bet that had it existed at the time, the simulator would have also said Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak were not enough to offset Robinson Cano. The big issue with the simulator is keeping the analog trade values updated. 2 months ago, it would have rejected Zach Davies for Luis Urias as well, and by a lot. But what happened was the Padres soured a bit on Urias. If the Sox could deal Bett and Price for Gonsolin, Ruiz, and Connor Wong and take back Pederson and Kelly to offset (and kick in a few mill, I suppose), is it a bad deal? They would clear about $40-45 mill or so towards the tax. Ruiz is a bit like Urias. He was unimpressive in 2019 and actually seems to have fallen behind Diego Cartaya for catchers on some Dodger prospect rankings. But he’s also in AAA at 20 years old. And the Dodgers already have Will Smith holding the position for the next few years anyway. Wong is a catcher-turned-2b/3b with power, speed and overall hitting but no defensive skill. He’s buried behind multiple prospects in the Dodger farm at all those positions. But he might be a good but-low prospect. Ruiz and Wong are both deep on the Dodger depth charts, and might actually be attainable. Bloom’s decision to not ask about Lux is keeping these talks alive and making good deals that don’t involve the top Dodger prospect more likely...

I think most ppl are assuming Joc is a throw-in to offset some cash and not a principle component of that trade. After all, he is a better throw-in than AJ Pollock for multiple reasons...

But he was the Sox best position player in 2002 and 2003 by fWAR, and trailed only Pedro. Don’t put too much on his injury-riddled 38 games in 2004 (in which he somehow posted a .867 OPS). If we play that game, Betts wasn’t the Sox best player last year...

17 full seasons. Plus his first year when he took overmidway. I looked it up finally.

And we know why they are clearly curbing spending - the goal is a reset. If they can extend Betts, a reset in the near future is NOT very likely. Here’s what I don’t get. A lot of fans want the Sox to hold Betts for “one last shot” at a World Series. But if you think the team is good enough to win it all with Betts, why do these same people think that if Betts gets traded, the Sox need to blow this team up and start over? 5GoldGloves even suggested that the Sox should trade Devers in a full scale rebuild. Huh? Devers, who is 22 with 4 years of control left, is a player you rebuild around...

But in a quarter of a century. Dave Roberts could equal him in World Series losses this year, his sixth season...

By the way, if they extend Betts, how are they supposed to reset in 2021?

Given how Bloom and the Sox have moved this postseason, it’s looking like a mandate. And per multiple sources, failing to get below the limit this year costs Henry about $100 mill all told. The tax itself is nothing; the Sox paid more to Rusney Castillo than they did in luxury tax last year. But there are apparently lots of other penalties for repeated high spending...

It is funny how Earl Weaver has become the most quotable manager in baseball history on what it takes to build a winning team, but he only managed one World Series winning team himself, the same number as Alex Cora...

First of all, aren’t there draft implications in exceeding the tax multiple seasons? And free agent compensation implications? And other effects? Second, John Henry wants the team to reset. That makes it the first step in the process...

Not really. The Angels have had some good teams, but have had a devastating and bizarre multi season run of pitching injuries. Really their one big mistake was their inexplicable addiction to Mike Scioscia...

It does mean there’s a good chance. And if you think it’s likely, what’s better for the Sox team? One last season of Mookie or whatever players he is worth in a trade? And if you think you can re-sign him, isn’t resetting this year the first step in that process?

True. But how good has Trout made the Angels? The guy is labeled one of the greatest players of all time with career fWAR better than several Hall of Famers already, and he is only 28 years old. But 1 postseason series. 3 games. 6 years ago. Ever watched the Angels and thought “this team should just trade Trout for a HAUL and put a good team in the field for once?” I know I have. It’s easy to say stuff like that about a team I don’t care about...

Betts is the Sox best player, but trading isn’t necessarily a white flag. The Sox did not get equal value for Nomar and won the World Series that year. They didn’t even come close to getting anything worthwhile for AGon, but won the next year anyway. Price might be tougher to replace than Betts, at least for 2020.