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Everything posted by notin
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Except with most pitchers, there is always one other incredibly obvious possibility, and one I argued was always the case with David Price until he showed there was a good chance I was correct. And that point is that racking up larger IP totals wears a pitcher down and some pitchers are simply exhausted and worn out and probably very sore by the time October comes around. And there also seems to be a trend that pitchers who log a lot of innings deep into October are not as effective the following season. (And possibly why Cora took it very easy on the Sox starters in ST 2019.) This is potentially a good factor in why so few teams seem to repeat World Series titles any more...
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Conjecture? What am I conjecting? (A much needed new word. Feel free to use it.) Prior to his problems first arising in 2018, Chris Sale has thrown below 192 IP one time in his career as a starter. It's worth it to see if the surgery worked and he is rebuilt. Eovaldi threw 199 IP as a starter in 2015 and has seen his IP decline rapidly every year since. From 2017 through 2019, Eovaldi threw 178 IP total. How many season s cut short by injury does he need to have to prove this point? That he struggles to throw a full season as a starter is not conjecture; it's a conclusion...
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Yeah, if only he was Manny Margot in the post-season...
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.. which doesn't change that his post-season numbers are still 139 PA spread out over 5 years. And it does not change that one mammoth game can change those numbers dramatically, which is why they are 100% meaningless...
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That was before his surgery. And it might be a consideration down the road. But right now, the rebuilt Sale might be able to put the struggles of 2018 and 2019 behind him if the surgery rectifies his problem. Unlike Eovaldi, Sale has shown he actually does have the durability to handle starting for a full season. Eovaldi has only topped 154 IP one time in his career, and that was back in 2015. Since then, he threw 154 IP in 2016, and seen in plummet since. Sale might actually be back healthy and the Sox can try to verify that. Eovaldi does not appear he can ever reach that level again despite multiple surgeries and multiple chances...
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A much easier point is to ignore post-season stats as not so much an aggregate total, but a bunch of extremely small sample sizes spread out over multiple seasons. Saying he has a .639 OPS in the post-season as a measure that he strggles also means that you're counting his 2 for 10 ALDS in 2016 at age 23 equally with his performances yesterday. And Mookie, like nearly every MLB player, was not the same at 23 as he is at age 27...
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Actually, just one mammoth game. If Mookie goes 5 for 5 with 3 HRs tonight - which he is perfectly capable of doing - his career postseason OPS jumps to .814...
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Probably because it’s only 139 plate appearances spread out over 5 seasons, but Mookie’s never really been Mookie in the postseason. .639 OPS and 1 career home run...
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Yaz might be able to contribute, but if you take Longoria, you're essentially paying $26 million for a 30 year old outfielder with less than 600 career at bats and a so-so minor league track record that includes a career sub-.800 OPS at every level above A ball. And weakening the pitching to boot by dealing Eovaldi. I think if the Sox take a bad deal, there is no point offsetting it by dumping Eovaldi unless (really good) pitching is coming back. Otherwise, take on that deal to get a good player with more control and on the right side of 30...
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I've heard others say the Sox will be one of the few teams that actually do spend this off-season...
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Why? History has shown Eovaldi lacks the durability to be that guy. Just because the last guy overpaid is no reason to force the situation on him. I mean, if you paid Ferrari dollars for a broken down '67 Mustang, would you still drive it like it was a Ferrari just because it costs the same? Now he might be an injury risk regardless of the role. But the one thing that has ended the careers of more pitchers than anything else is pitching. Make him do it less, and you reduce the risk of him getting hurt...
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He definitely made some good moves. But he did put the team in what was obviously going to be a very difficult position, and that was before he decided to go out in a Blaze of Glory...
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And one other thing we clearly both agree on - f*** the Sparks!!!
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Hey, Rusney is a free agent and a centerfielder. Just sayin'...
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NOBODY has carried the "Eovaldi is going to get hurt" banner higher than I have. Eovaldi himself has emailed me and told me to please stop (OK, not true.) But at this point, if the Sox ae going to deal Eovaldi for another "bad" contract, it better be someone who can contribute, because resources are not going to be unlimited and the Sox need pitching and plenty of it. Make this deal, and next off-season you'll be proposing other deals to sell of Longoria for a sunken contract. I still think the smartest move is to shift Eovaldi to the bullpen, where a 60-70 IP workload is more manageable...
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Until they took away his only weapon - Henry's checkbook...
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No backsies!!
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His lineage is always worth a place on the team, IMO. But Longoria? Not so much. Eva? Sure. But not Evan...
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Moreland might be available after all https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/10/padres-rumors-mitch-moreland-option.html
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And the Sox might not even walk that far. Maybe they non-tender and re-sign him for less. ERod might beangry about it, but if it is the best offer he'll more than likely take it. Personally, I think for the Sox an $8-9mill contract for a pitching-bereft team as a gamble is not a big deal. If ERod is alive, he is getting a tender. Worst case scenario is they waster $8-9mill on a player who doesn't pitch. Big deal. They're paying Price twice that to pitch somewhere else. And they'll paying Eovadi twice that and he's no guarantee to pitch next year either...
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They key word in your argument is "played"...
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Yes, his contract tender is 100% dependent on his health...
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Ok so NOW you bring in the whole "history as a pitcher" thing...
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Schilling was originally drafted and signed by the Sox, but was dealt to Baltimore in a trade for Mike Boddicker...
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Only if they are used to offset what it takes to bring the good players that accompany them...
