notin

BTV does give Boyd a surplus value of $5.7mill and Benintendi a surplus value of $3.6mill. Both are plummeting fast. Benintendi for Lopez ($3.7mill) is a much better match up using their criteria. But I would be surprised if Detroit did not accept a Benintendi/Boyd swap. I think I'd be more surprised if Bloom offered it. Hernandez (surplus value $7mill on BTV) looks like the real gem there, but he also has the least experience. Miami has enough needs and their biggest criteria appears to be a low salary...

ftfy

There were only 4 free agents that year? Even limiting just to free agency, there was Kenta Maeda, whose 10.6 fWAR exceeded Price's 10.2 fWAR in that same timeframe, and for a very small (~10%) fraction of the cost. And really, JA Happ (10.1 fWAR) and Rich Hill (9.1 fWAR) were right behind Price. Price was a big name and a PR splash. But it's actually OK for a GM to use other criteria for free agents...

Undervalued pitchers (worth targeting?) I have no idea what it would take to get any of them,. 1. Elieser Hernandez (Miami). Leads all SP the last two seasons in Zone % and is among the for lowest Contact %. Basically he is throwing strikes that very few can hit. Insane 6.80 K/BB this year (in only 25 IP). 2. Matt Boyd (Detroit). Z-Contact % and Sw Str % are both top 20 in MLB since start of 2019. Per BTV, his trade value is plummeting, but Detroit might not share this notion. However, the Tigers have hitting needs and a ton of young pitching, and Boyd is first-time arb-eligible so he is expendable. Big issue is control problems, although he is not horrible here. (Benintendi for Boyd?) 3. Reynaldo Lopez (White Sox). Lopez has been top 20 in throwing strikes, having batters swing at strikes, and having batters miss strikes since the start of 2019. He has had some injury issues this year, but he could be poised for a huge breakout season if he can stay healthy. Biggest question is what exactly do the White Sox need, if anything? I actually expect Bloom to be looking at pitchers like this to fill out the rotation. Naturally, he will use a different (better?) analysis...

The only good thing about Price's deal was DD did put in the opt out, which nearly every other player who ever received one had exercised. Had Price not gotten injured in his second season (or third, I suppose), he might have exercised it and not left Boston in the bad position they were in. But then there was really no excuse for going crazy on Eovaldi's deal...

Correct. In fact, Lee had issues with Zimmer not starting him in games in 1978 against the Yankees as part of this quarrel. And according to Lee, that decision prevented the Sox from winning the 1978 pennant...

Down was clearly Plan B - which became "Get the best player possible." . It's possible he never plays a game for the Sox...

Trevor Bauer is the obvious Big Splash. But I can see why he could and maybe should be avoided. If Bloom signs him, load that contract with opt outs!! Otherwise he could be Price 2.0...

As much as I don’t like that we rejected that deal, I think I get why Bloom did it. He couldn’t trade Betts and get back a pitcher that he feared would spend half his career on the IL...

Season saved!! In all seriousness, a good move. Audition time!

Oh I will do occasional “research,” by which I mean poking around sites like Fangraphs and B-R for some data. And while I form staunch opinions, I can be convinced otherwise. (Something 5GoldGloves does more often than I care to admit) Heck the very post you challenged me on was a point made by S5 that gave me pause. (S5 and I are not known to agree on things, going back to other websites, back when he just used the name “S5”). But I also felt he made a rather astute observation and I threw some data behind it...

But this is the fallout from that unprecedented run...

While I get your point, I just attribute all deals under a GM to that GM. Except Hazen, although his departure might also explain Dombrowski’s sudden carelessness with some deals...

Fair...

I think you will see Pivetta, Brasier and Taylor in MLB. Hopefully we have seen the last of Weber, Mazza, Kickham, Covey, Spings, Hall, Triggs, Leyer and Brice as Red Sox at any level after this season. I’d add Hart, but he does have options...

B-R actually has the Sox in 4th in MLB with a payroll of $171mill. But I believe just add up the salaries of the roster and take into account players on other teams the Sox are still paying (like Sandoval) And of course none of the websites detailing Sox payroll include Castillo...

Heck we’re still spending this year. While we have small market names and small market results, this team has a non-pro-rated payroll north of $180 million....

That the Rays “refuse to spend money” is a big difference. I would think you’ve seen Henry spend money by now. The Rays being competitive in their crappy isolated ballpark in a region of the country dominated by Yankee fans is a nice story, but no one thinks Henry hires Bloom to emulate that. More likely, Henry realized that succeeding in that culture requires a certain degree of baseball acumen and he wants to someone with that pedigree to bring that to Boston...

True, but the farm system was another type of currency that was used to pay off that debt. And one of those choking debt contracts did win a Cy Young award...

Not sure many teams do. Maybe Oakland...

Friedman made it evident he was not parting with top tier pitching prospects, which was one of the reasons Minnesota got involved at all. To me it looks like Bloom isn’t taking chances with “high risk” younger pitchers with health concerns, which is why he passed on Graterol. Now the Dodgers were in a better position to take on that risk, and it’s been working out for them. Hey, another advantage of having a good farm; you don’t have to be as careful on younger players...

But if you’re not allowed to spend, shouldn’t that impact the final product? The Sox still have the third highest payroll in MLB, which should serve as a reminder that spending heavily does come with a potential risk in itself...

It’s not debatable statistically. Price’s age, position and career length made him a higher risk period. As for Mookie’s pre-pandemic price tag, that is a fair point...

Ben was also the antecedent to DD. Had Cherington been capable of signing even a reasonable free agent instead of Ramirez, Sandoval and Castillo (although to be fair, Castillo barely had a chance), things might have been much different. I really don’t blame Henry for the personnel decisions. Whether or not he approves of them is a secondary part at best. After all, he does hire a GM to make baseball decisions. Is he supposed to then second-guess everything?

Because it’s less insane than 7 years $217 mill for an older, inferior, higher risk player...