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Everything posted by notin
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Ok but like I said, in their formula is very simple. Projected WAR iconverted to dollars minus projected salaries. Sometimes they add marketability crap in there, which is fine for Trout or Betts, but probably not applicable to Castillo or Torres. So find some projections for WAR for both players. Find their projected salaries. Do the math and see how it works out. Or just contact the site and ask for an explanation. They update things all the time and welcome user input. I've gotten them to update numerous player values based on various logic, including this week when I questioned their insanely low valuation of Matt Boyd...
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Like I said, 2B is one of the positions the Sox can wait a bit and probably steal a good player for very little money. Of course, the main reason to do that is to be able to spend more on pitching, and rght now I am not sure what pitching is worth spending on. Kluber and Tanaka would be nice, but it is also possible both are barely able to pitch this season...
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No. I was hoping if they dealt Vazquez, they might sign Zunino, but he is off the market. There is not much left unless you like Wilson Ramos or Tyler Flowers...
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And it feels like a step laterally to deal Price and then sign Bauer for probably similar money. Really more money because the Soxare still paying Price. Will they wind up trading Bauer and paying half in 3 seasons?
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Backup catcher is not a need. The Sox have Plawecki. If they deal Vazquez. hopefully they do not just promote Plawecki...
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Really if you look at Paxton, Odirizzi, Walker and Jose Quintana, they have all combined for one season with more than 170 IP since 2016. Might as well sign Bauer or Tanaka...
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Maybe they think they can get Kolten Wong for much less? Or Marcus Semien? They can definitely get Cesar Hernandez for a lot less, not to mention numerous other second basemen who all have varying pedigrees in MLB. The two deepest positions in this FA market appear to be relief pitcher and 2B...
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Grullon has been waived twice in the past 6 months. I am not so sure he makes for an adequate Plan B for a MLB team in need of a starting catcher...
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No. The prospects might be more ready to contribute. There is no guarantee there will be a minor league season in 2021, and there is absolutely no guarantee any of them will get better. And really, how many high ceiling prospects do the Sox have above A ball that might be able to step in? And the FA class for 2022 is really not all that much better, and we only know who is scheduled to be in it, not who will be. The biggest name might be McCullers, but not if Houston extends him. And even if they don't, he has never thrown 130 IP in a season. Exactly how is that class better than one that has the reigning Cy Young winner? If the Sox take a pass on this year, we will be having this same conversation one year from now, but instead talking about the 2023 free agent class...
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You're begining to sound a lot like Jacko with the whole "wait until 2022" thing. What exactly will be different in 2022? The free agent pitchers aren't necessarily going toi be better. Sure, Lance McCullers is mega-talented arm under 30. Is he worth it? He's never thrown 130 IP in a single season. Between him and Eovaldi, the Sox might be able to get 200 IP for a mere $40 million. Kershaw is available but he will be 34. What, besides one less year of control for Devers, Bogaerts, etc. will be different? The arrival of Jeter Downs? Or Bryan Mata? Is that worth throwing away a full season over? If the goal is "wait until next season," might as well just sign Bauer now. He'd presumably still be on the team in 2022. The Sox will be in the exact same boat in 2022 if they just go lightly and take a cheap CF and 2B and get some filler arms to wear their uniforms, and we will be having this exact same exchange one year from now. You don't improve by standing still. But you do get hit by trains that way...
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Jon Lester is going to turn 37 in a few weeks. At this point, he is well aware no one is giving him 3 years, and he might even struggle to get 2. Odirizzi, Paxton and Walker are all upgrades for the Sox, and the oldest one is Paxton, who turned 32 a couple weeks back. All of them will be looking for long deals, but might take short ones if the market is weak (which it has not been to date). One thng for certain, pitchers looking for one year pillow contracts to rebuild value rarely choose Boston, as we have two distinct disadvantages - small ballpark and a league with a DH...
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Not even for PR? A forum like this where we talk baseball 24-7 is really not for casual fans. We’re all addicts. Some of us know it. And even here, we have baseball junkies questioning Bloom’s ability to build a team based on last season’s results. Another year is going to entrench the notion this team needs to spend $250 million to be successful and anything less is Henry being cheap. And THAT is the addicts thinking. Can you imagine Casual Fans? The type of people who get their insights from Gerry Callahan and Tony Masserotti?
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Go heavy on the bullpen!! Bring in two from Hand, Bradley and Robles! Or all three. Shorten those games! And do the Sox need two MLB starters? Right now, they have ERod, Eovaldi, Pivetta and Houck. That’s 4. They need a fifth guy to round out the rotation and then more Andriese types for depth...
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Pitching prospects is a tough call. Every team needs them. So few teams give up good ones (the Sox couldn’t get one for Betts). Yet no prospects fail in the Majors with greater frequency. The league wide desire to hoard pitching prospects actually makes little sense as it’s like deciding to hoard scratch tickets over cash. Anyway, the Sox will struggle in any deal where the other team wants pitching prospects. We have no ranked ones. And maybe half a dozen total who might see MLB. So how do the Sox upgrade starting pitching?
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Word also is Pitt wants pitching prospects....
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My “Vazquez as trade bait” scenarios really died out when the Rays signed Zunino. As of now, I think the Sox might have Jeter Downs as their most expendable trade piece...
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Per my back and forth posts with Bitzer, they use multiple sites for projected performance and salary. So it’s those sites that must have faith in Castillo. Now they do often include other external criteria, like Q-factor, but I doubt either Castillo or Torres have much of an impact there...
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Or St. Louis? Vazquez for Harrison Bader and former top prospect Anthony Reyes? Or CF Lane Thomas and Reyes. Reyes just feels like he could be Boston’s version of Glasgow...
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The value would also depend on their projected salaries. If Torres projects to make more money than Castillo through the arbitration process, then it would affect his trade value...
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Very likely
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Because the owners will fight it to reduce expenses...
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And that is how he and I differ. I live for digging into these baseball numbers, while he prefers frivolous activities like saving other people's lives...
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Boston is reportedly "looming" per MLBTR and Joel Sherman, but the Jays and Padres are the front runners...
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So are you saying your personal evaluations are better than not only the site itself, but also the 2 people capable of getting the position of MLB GM who happened to both agree it as a fair deal? Saying the Padres got "ripped off" is a very strong statement about the ability of AJ Preller to evaluate this trade and do what is best for his team. And all because the site refuses to acknowledge that no player should have more trade value than Gleyber Torres?
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However, I think the Sox should hold on to Martinez. I think he can bounce back. I don't like the idea of paying Martinez to play for someone else and then going out and paying someone else to fill his role...
