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Since I proposed that deal on BTV, they have changed Snell’s value. A package of Snell and Kiermaier has a surplus value of $42.7 million. A package of Downs, Wong and Darwinzon Hernandez has a surplus value of $42.2 million. That deal looks a lot more realistic to me...

I’m pretty sure he’s been available in a trade every day since Day 2 in Seattle...

The 25 and under crowd might be given some level of preference over the 30+ year old AAAA crowd...

Not until 2022...

Mazza is the type of guy the Sox could DFA and re-sign to an MiLB deal. Bazardo might not get selected in the Rule 5 draft, but if the only risk in keeping him is the easily replaceable Mazza, I don't see the harm. You can always get another Chris Mazza. And the new one can be here tomorrow if you have Amazon Prime...

Will we only be looking at ERA and only 2020? Both Musgrove and Sheffield had similar ERA+ numbers this eyar (116 and 118). but Sheffield has basically 2020 and nothign else on his resume. He has 94 career IP. Musgrove at least has shown he can pitch a full season in MLB. Sheffield is the prospect with the higher ceiling, but as of now Musgrove has the higher floor. And if the Mariners want Musgrove - and maybe they don't - they won't be getting him for a package of Dylan Moore and Nick Margevicius. They might have to give up something good...

Mazza was barely tolerable last year, but he managed to shine as one of the brightest among the dying candles that made up the Sox staff...

As Sale will undoubtedly start the season on the 60 day IL, one more name can be added...

Yes, he is looking like a "sell high" candidate like I said. His value will be adjusted accordingly in the future. The thing is, at his current "sell high" value, there are not likely to be many buyers. Chavis had a surplus value of $18.7 million on that same website not too long ago, but it has since beeen adjusted downward to $7.5 million, which definitely looks more appropriate...

Now if the Mariners were willing to pony up Logan Gilbert or Justus Sheffield, they could probably establish themselves as frontrunners for Musgrove...

I think the Pirates have several pitchers equal to or better than Nick Margevicius, and probably don't care much for comparisons to Martin Perez as selling points. Margevicius' numbers this year were very similar to those of Pirate RHP JT Brubaker, for example. And the sources BTV uses for their future projections also apparently do not look too favorably on Margevicius, given he has 4 years of control left and still only a surplus value of 3.8 million, or slightly more than Red Sox INF Christian Arroyo. The Mariners, like most teams, are probably better positioned to outbid the Red Sox if/when Joe Musgrove becomes available, but I would be very shocked if that lackluster Moore/Margevicius package was the best offer they received...

Devers does appear to be a notoriously slow starter. Once he got going last year, he was actually very good. He did the same thing in 2019, but as the season was longer than 60 games, he had a lot more time to erase his slow start...

Well you have to balance that with his projected salary, which might not be all that high. Dylan Moore has 4 seasons of control left. Even if his projections come out to only 4 fWAR in that timeframe, that gives him a value of $32 million (using 2020 valuations). And if his expected salary over those 4 years is only a total of $10-12 million, that would give him a surplus value of $20-22 million. I don't think those numbers are actually all that unreasonable. Especially since players who play multiple positions tend to get their defensive contributions for fWAR to be a little inflated. (I think the logic is the value in their versatility.) The only realy question is - will he stay on the field long enough in the next four seasons to accrue 4 fWAR. But then if he does not, his salary probably also isn't as high...

Let's be fair to Roenicke. How much glory can any manager cover himself in when he is handed a team where Ryan Weber is the #3 starter? What was he supposed to do? I would call this the equivalent of having pocket 2,7 off suit, but it's actually worse. Because even with that hand, you can still at least bluff your way to a victory...

Also Venable is Plan B in case Cora still owns a trash can...

I don't think so. Do you think trade values need to be static? I believe what they do is use projected WAR in dollar values and then subtract guaranteed/projected salary. Well, projected WAR values can change fromyear to eyar and even day to day. But so can anyone's perception of a player. The biggest issue with their method is it cannot account for whether or not Team A wants those specific players from Team A. I threw one out there about Blake Snell and Kevin Kiermaier for Jeter Downs and Connor Wong. Forgetting about the divisional rivalry thing for a moment, if Tampa were to move Snell while dumping Kiermaier, they probably would like a package of prospects of equal value. But that doesn't mean they want Jeter Downs...

I think there is a difference between aggressive baserunning and speed. Aggressive baserunning is a bigger factor in steals...

It's a "sell high" value, as Moore is coming off a decent season. After 2021, his value could easily drop by $15-20 million...

But why would the Pirates give up a starting pitcher with value in order to acquire a package headlined by a utility infielder? They might have interest in the Trammell package, but Trammell himself is seeing his value plummet the last couple seasons. If Seattle actually offered that package, Pittsburgh would likely see much better offers than one containing a utility infielder and a fringey pitcher, even if they were able to unload the final season of Polanco's deal. The other day I you tried to pick apart a deal where I had proposed a package headlined by Jeter Downs by citing other prospects Tampa had that were also utility infielders. Don't you think it is very easy to do the same to this Seattle deal? It's a safe bet the Pirates have their own equivalents of Dylan Moore and Nick Margevicius already...

I would imagine he is another candidate with his 1 year $14.6 mill deal...

But that's a penalty...

I think if Bloom makes a big trade, he tries to minimize what he gives up and/or maximize his return by taking back a bad (but potentially useful) contract, much like he tried with Wil Myers last offseason. Some contracts that might make sense for the Sox to take on along with a SP include Kevin Kiermaier (2 yrs $25.6 mill), Ender Inciarte (1 yr $9.7 mill), Lorenzo Cain (2 yrs $35 mill) or Rougned Odor (2 yrs $27.6 mill), and I suppose Myers should still be on the list. So see what pitchers Tampa, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Texas and San Diego still have they might be happy moving in order to save a lot of money...

No way Cincy makes that trade. Why would Cincy trade 4 years of Castillo to get 2 years of Bogaerts, along with oft-injured Groome and some spare parts? Also, Votto has full no-trade protection as a 10-5 player and has always expressed interest in staying in Cincinnati. (Look for the Reds to sign Semien this off-season to fill their SS gap.) I also think Correa won't sign in Boston "because of Cora" unless the money is the best offer he can get. He did not hire an agent to reunite him with former coaches. Also, Houston does have a 3B prospect named Abraham Toro they seem to be quite high on and is probably slated to push Bregman back to shortstop if/when Correa leaves. And really, if ALCS runner-up Houston going to team all that much down this offseason? (Also, Boston should avoid Correa like he has COVID, which he might for all we know.) If the Sox need to make a blockbuster deal for a starting pitcher - and they probably do - guys more likely to be available are Jon Gray and Jameson Taillon. If they can't get one, they should bolster the bullpen heavily, possibly starting with Brad Hand and the reportedly available Josh Hader...

Yes but we have loftier goals than the Mariners fans. All they have to watch in October is the Seahawks...

Well what about the Mariners' active streak of not even making the post-season? Both the Padres and the Brewers have at least done that as recently as 2 months ago...