moonslav59

I still think the Story signing was such a move, as they correctly gauged the fan disgust building to a level of open revolt. I'm not expecting such a move, now. They seem to have accepted people now know who they are, and they can't fool anyone anymore.

What are the media and fans doing with the words they are saying and have been for over 4 years? Is that working for them? I agree, 4 years ago, had we said we are going to try and do it the "Rays Way," they'd have been bashed to pieces, but aren't they being bashed to pieces, now? They just put it off for awhile, and the realization of the lies makes it even worse. They can keep saying "full throttle" all they want, but to me, coming clean and stating their "Rays' Way" plan would get a better reception, now, than doubling down on the big lies.

Good one. I think it's plain to see why the team is where it is, today, as well as where were were for about 5 years, but let's not ignore the fact that Bloom did poorly with a large percent of his biggest signings and trades that affected the big club. I do not think it is crazy to think management felt someone could have done and will do better. If the same constraints remain, it is highly doubtful even a good GM can build a winner, but doing better than Bloom is far from doubtful.

So, are people (not you cp) now saying maybe it wasn't Bloom's fault?

I think Abreu has a better chance winning the RF position, then CF, and last LF. Ref is a DH/LF'er platoon. Yoshida is a DH/LF'er. Duran is better in LF than CF or RF. O'Neill is better in LF than RF. The CF job is all Rafaela's if he can just hit well enough to win it. (Yes, big if.) If Rafaela cannot win the CF job, outright, it looks like Duran lays there (Yuck,) and depending on O'Neill's health, Abreu might be our RF'er.

They all improved?

About how many of those 32 need to occur for us to be in the playoff hunt?

The "Realistic View" remains very bleak.

4th place looks tough. 3rd place real tough. 2nd place, nope Be like the Rays for the next 5 years: a pipe dream.

At this point, that's a dream for us.

It would be a step in the right direction, anyway.

It was actually 6 out of 7, and 3 of those 7 years were 90+ win teams. He did start with TBR in 2005- a team stuck at 55-70 wins. 67 wins in '05 61 in '06 66 in '07 then 97, 84, 96, 91, 90, 92 before the sample size you chose. From 2008-2018 (11 yrs), the Rays won: 68 once 77 once 80 twice (That's 3 losing seasons out of 11) 84 once 6 seasons over 90 wins. (8 out of 11 winning seasons) The team was also set up to win 96 games in 2019, the year after he left. It is interesting that the other guys who left TBR went to teams that allowed them to spend and or had decent farm systems to begin with. Click in HOU Friedman in LAD I think I'm missing someone. I do agree with your point. It does look like they chose the wrong guy. The guy who "wrote the book" was not the guy who knew how to get things done.

Yup. They also help their team out by trading some very good players "just in time." Our GM would be roasted for some of the trades the Rays have made, yet many of them seem to work out. The list of SP'ers they have traded away is long and noteworthy. (They have a pretty decent list of pitchers they traded for, as well.

With the numbers he had before 2023, he'd be getting paid $15-19M, this year. The guy was in the Cy Young running just about every year before the injury. He missed two years and came back to put up these numbers from '21-'22: 244 IP 4.17 ERA 3.66 FIP 8.2 K/9 & 2.0 BB/9 Certainly not great, but at $10M, I expected better than what we got. I also think JH & Co. feel Brez can do better than this. Let's see how GIO does, because he might be all Brez gets.

This could easily be "the plan," but why not just say so?

1. I doubt it can be worse. 2. It is possible to compete without great SP'ers, if the rest of the team improves, greatly. (Emphasis in "if.") 3. If we look like we are closer to winning than now, maybe, and I'm not saying for sure, we might spend more or make a big trade for pitching. I'm not projecting it, expecting it or saying it is even likely to happen, but I do think our team will be better if and when some of our prospects are called up and mature. Maybe 2025 or 2026 is wishful thinking, but I'm trying to find a shred of something to be optimistic about.

Of course. Chances are at least one of the top three might give close to nothing, at least by 2015 or 2026. Two is possible, as well. We do have a bunch of mid-levels all likely to be graduating from 2022 to 2025. Those who just did (Casas, Bello, Crawford, Duran, Wink, Wong and more) plus Rafaela, Abreu, Yorke, Fitts, Wikelman, Perales and others might produce a few pluses. Plenty of longer shots might produce 1-2 surprises and or role players. Meidroth, Castro, Hickey, Jordan, Monegro, Slaten, Guerrero, Mata, DHam, Dobbins Hoppe, Troye, Rogers, Penrod, Gambrell, ICoffey, Brannon and others. There is nothing wrong with getting optimistic about a farm most experts rank rather highly, but yes, we can't pencil in any single one, by name, right now. BTW, being optimistic about the foundation and future prospects is not "expecting" them to do so. I do "expect" some will do well. Maybe not the ones we think will, but some should. (More than we've seen from the Devers call-up in 2017 to the Bello-Casas promotions, recently.

They are a dime a dozen, but before these guys, we've been paying a quarter for a half dozen.

The Optimist, but still realist, view at 2024: We may need close to 30 of these 32 things to "go right" in 2024 to have a chance at some semblance of joy or glory: 1. Devers: He won't turn 28 until after the 2024 season. He is now in the peak prime of his career. It's not unthinkable to think he could "go off," this year. To what extent is up for debate. He's had had an OPS+ above 132 in 3 of the last 4 full seasons, and has had some pretty long stretches of decent defense, too. Could he hit over 150 in OPS+ and put together a full season of average defense? 2. Story: This guy might hold the widest range of projectable outcomes for 2024, based on his health and low vs high points in his career. He will be 31 in 2024, so it's not like he cannot still have a big year. He is still an excellent defensive SS. He can continue that. He's has OPS+ between 120-127 four times in his career. I don't think projecting a career high OPS+ is realistic, and many point to the COL splits as skewing his numbers beyond recognition. I'm thinking Fenway is a nice park to hit, too, and maybe a 108-112 OPS+ is not outlandish. 3. Yoshida: He's another tough cookie to crack. Only one year in the bigs and the whole cultural adjustment thing could lead to a nice second year. He ended the season with a .783 OPS and a 109 OPS+. He was doing fine in mid July (over .880) and was still over .850 on August 1st and .820 on Sept 4th, but he dropped off at the end. Will DH'ing help him stay strong, all year? I'm thinking .850 (125 OPS+) is within reason. 4. Casas: I might feel more confident about this guy than anyone else. He's such a hard worker and studies the game, hard. He missed some time, so just playing 20-25 more games, alone, could be a big boost. He ended the season at .858 (129 OPS+.) He ended the season with a .922 OPS over his last 106 games and 406 PAs. I may get push back on this, but I think he can come close to repeating this, over a full 2024 season: .900 and a an OPS+ over 140 or 150. 5. O'Neill: He'll turn 29, next year, so a career year is possible. Injuries have not helped him, but that 2021 season jumps out as a season, I'm hoping he can come close to repeating: GG defense and a .912 OPS (148 OPS+.) Could he play good D and hit .850+ (125 OPS+) in 2024? I'm thinking he can. 6. Duran: Another tough guy to project. The 121 OPS+ in 102 games in 2024 is very promising. Even his D looked better, but still not average, IMO. I'm thinking continued improvement on D (close to avg in LF) and a 115+ OPS+ is not a wild idea. 7. Grissom: He's got a 105 OPS+ by age 22. He was not a good defensive SS, but maybe he can be okay at 2B. Okay, sure as hell beats having the worst D at 2B, like we did, last year. I'm thinking he can top that 105 OPS+ and play average D at 2B for 150 games. 8. Wong and 9. McGuire: Both are young enough to improve. They both had an 80 OPS+, and I'm going to say I think 85-95 is not a bad guess. The D must improve. Working with many of the same pitchers on the staff should help them improve their results. 10. Reyes and 11. Refsnyder: Both should have pretty clear roles for 2024. Ref has been a top 25-30 batter vs LHPs in MLB since 2022. Reyes ended up over .710, and was not as bad at 2B as others. I'm guessing these two can keep up with the average bench players in MLB, if used as they should be. 12. Rafaela and 13. Abreu: These guys could surprise- in either direction. Rafaela is great on D, while Abreu seems pretty good. Their bats are largely a big guess, but maybe, combined, they can hit between .735 and .755. 14. Extended everyday player depth: EValdez, Dalbec, DHam and anyone added to the 40, during the year (Anthony? Teel? Yorke? Mayer?) Hard to guess, here. Maybe nothing great but nothing so bad, it's a game changer. 15. Bello: It's hard to imagine us doing anything joyful without this guy leading the staff. Maybe start by going from 28 GS & 157 IP to 33 GS and 175+ IP. From game 3 to game 26: the team went 16-8 3.39 ERA (4.08 FIP.) I'm thinking 3.50 (4.00 FIP.) 16. Giolito: Simple: be the 2019-2021 Gio: 3.47 ERA (129 ERA+) 3.54 and not the 2022-2023 one. I'm thinking 3.75 (3.75) in 30 GS and 170+ IP. 17. Pivetta: He has a 103 ERA+ with the Sox. I'm thinking a 4.35 (105 ERA+) and 30 GS/ 175 IP. 18. Houck, 19. Crawford, 20. Whitlock: Looks like 2 might start, which likely won't help, but I think, combined, they can improve, significantly over their 2023 numbers. 21. Winckowski and 22, Schreiber: Wink went up/ Schreiber went down. I think, combined these two should be pretty good set-up men and be better than 2023. 23. Martin and 24. Jansen: I'm going to just say, "repeat 2024." 25. Bernardino, 26. Slaten (Rule 5) and 27. Mata (no options): We don't need greatness from these 3. If just two do okay and give us better innings that the scrubs we had last year, it should be a plus. 28.Max Castillo, Wikelman and anyone the might add (Fitts or Gambrell) don't have to do much to be better than last year's scrubs. 29. Campbell, Criswell, Weissert, Kelly, Murphy, Walter and any additions (Guerrero, Benitez or Olivarez:) To me, this could be an area we get a boost, even to some sort of surprising level- better than Schreiber 2022 or Bernardino 2023. 30. Team defense is bound to improve as Story plays more, Yoshida DH's more and Grissom replaces the clown carousel at 2B. 31. Our coaching staff makes less mistakes. 32. Breslow makes better in season moves than Bloom did. Looking back at all this, maybe even 25 of 32 might get us somewhere.

They've given up on all pretenses of trying to be competitive through the rebuild. That is the noticeable difference about this winter- aside from the "full throttle" comment.

I totally agree. One without the other, and maybe we could get by, but both together puts a death grip on our necks. I do think Houck, Crawford, Whitlock and Winckowski along with Bello might be the best 5 pitching prospects we've seen in a long time, so it's not just Bello, but such a long stretch before these 5, and it looks like another long stretch after them falls way short of helping much. (Whit and Wink were not full Sox prospects, but they were acquired as prospects, so I counted them.)

I agree. SP1 ___________________ SP3 (Gio) 2B (Grissom) OF/RH Power Bat ___________ Just 2 more big adds coulda put us in the conversation. It's the big Turtle Sham.

I like the foundation for 2025 and 2026, but I agree. We suck for 2024, unless near 30 out of about 32 things go right, this year. (I'll name those 32, at some point.)

Good point. I certainly hoped for better than Kluber, last winter, but I thought he was okay for $10M. At least Brez went about twice as bold on that big dollar amount!

Why trade even guys with 2-3 years of control for a rental? We aren't going anywhere near the playoffs, even if we added Burnes.