moonslav59

In theory, we could keep all plus Duran.... 3B: Chapman 150 GS/ Devers 12 GS 1B: Casas 87 GS/Devers 75 GS DH: Casas 70 GS/Devers 70 GS/Yoshida 22 GS LF: Yoshida 130 GS/ Refsnyder 32 GS/ Duran 10GS CF: Duran 142 GS/ Rafaela or Abreu 20 GS RF: O'Neill 152 GS/ Abreu 10 GS

Yoshida to LF to replace Duran works, too. Ideally, trading Yoshida works better for defense. Maybe Duran has more upside on O, too, if baserunning is factored in, and you believe 2023 was not a fluke. I'm not for the idea of signing any everyday player to big money over a SP'er, but if trading someone for s SP'er to make room for a FA signing is in the plan, I'm okay with it.

I think we can spend the money better, but if we traded Duran for a decent SP'er, I'd be fine with this idea.

As much as I like ref's bat v LHPs, I think Abreu and Rafaela are better. However, if they will not play nearly everyday, I'd prefer they not take a utility role. I don't think Dalbe c belongs on the 26, but I see no possible option for a back-up 1Bman, unless Ref. can learn it in a few weeks. (They aren't trying that, so it's Bobby Dee.) McGuire is the default 2nd catcher, who has a chance to play more than Wong. Reyes is a lock on the 26, at least to start 2024.

I agree. O'Neill in RF might be a little shaky, but Rafaela in CF more than makes up for that.

Dalbec should never start an OF game, unless 2 OF'ers got hurt, so quickly, nobody could be called up. I'd start Yoshida and ref in the OF over Dalbec. (DH Dalbec over Yoshi.) I just don't see the utility value in Dalbec. Plus, he sucks on D, even at 1B. I agree on Rafaela playing nearly everyday, of being in AAA. However, having him on the 26 as our FT CF'er does not prevent him from being used at 2B or SS "in an emergency," instead of Dalbec.

Indeed: Injury questions: Story & O'Neill Whitlock & Houck Jansen & Mata Age decline questions: Jansen & Martin Sophomore (kinda for some) jinx questions: Casas & Bello Duran & Wong Crawford & Wink Was 2023 a fluke questions: Crawford & Wink Bernardino & Murphy Casas & Duran Still too young to know questions: Grissom & Slaten Abreu & Rafaela Can 2024 be a bust out or return to greatness year (or long stretch of a season): Devers & Story Yoshida & O'Neill Giolito & Pivetta Houck & Whitlock McGuire & Dalbec Some are on more than one list.

I see all as emergency use, only, except 1B. Reyes is above him at 3B and 2B. If Rafela is on the 26, he's above Bobby Dee, too. Many are ahead of him in the OF- even Yoshida.

Where else do we need or want Bobby Dee to play?

Agreed, unless we are okay with 4 position changes: Devers to 1B Casas to DH Yoshida to LF Duran to CF (Rafaela to AAA) Just sign Monty and let the games begin.

It will likely come down to his health in 2024.

Although he's not on the 40, this may signal the end to Dalbec's tenure on our 40.

Yes, of course. I did not think it needed to be mentioned that some years had weaker systems than others. That being said, just finding 1 or 2 prospects that were better than who sp's placed in the top 3 does not mean sp's is a bad ranking service. It's not an easy thing to get perfectly right. Here are some better prospects than the "bad ones" that were in the top 3 in the past 9 seasons: 2021: 4. Houck > 2. Downs (18. Wong, too) 6. Bello > 3. Yorke (13. Wink, maybe 15. Bleis, 16. Wong) 2020: 7. Duran> 3. Mata (8. Houck), also both > 2. Downs (late '20) 2019: 5. Houck> 1. Chavis, 2. DHern maybe 19. Rafaela> 2. Mata, 3. Groome 2018: 4. Houck & 13. Beeks> 1. Groome, 2. Chavis, 3. Mata (only 2 in top 20 look okay, now shows how bad the farm was in 2018.) 2017: 4. Houck & 10. Beeks> 1. Groome, 2. Chavis, 3. Same Travis (after Devers & Beni graduated) 2016: 5. Devers, 3. Margot, 8. Barnes, 10. Kopech> 1. Swihart & 3. Owens (bad year for sp's.) 2015: 6. ERod & 8. Barnes> 3. Owens 5. Beni> 3. Espinoza (later in '15) 2014: 10. Betts, 18. Devers, 8. Barnes, 9. Workman, 13. Vaz > 3. Owens (later #3 Swihart) 5. ERod>2. Owens I'm not trying to slight sp's. I'm not trying to say some of these farms were better than they were. Some were much worse than others. soxprospects.com does a very good job with its rankings.

Take away salary, BTV places these projected dollar values on our current MLB or MLB ready players: (Years of control adds value) 323/10 Devers 90/5 Bello 87/5 Casas 78/4 Yoshida 60/5 Duran 46/4 Houck 43/5 Crawford 39/2 Giolito (really one year) 37/5 Whitlock 34/4 Story 30/6 Grissom 25/6 Abreu 23/4 Rafaela 20/6 EValdez (seems very high) 19/5 Winckowski 16/1 Pivetta 14/6 Walter (seems very high) 14/1 Jansen 11/1 O'Neill 10/6 Bernardino 8.5/4 Reyes 7.4/1 Martin (seems low) 6.3/2 McGuire 5.7/6 Campbell, Murphy & DHam 4.9/2 Refsnyder 4.4/5 Wong (seems low) ~4/5 R Gonzalez, Weissert, ZKelly Value per year: 32.3 Devers 19.4 Yoshida 11.4 Houck 19.2 Giolito 18.0 Bello 17.5 Casas 13.9 Jansen 12.0 Duran 11.2 O'Neill 8.5 Crawford 8.4 Story 7.5 Whitlock 7.4 Martin 5.0 Grissom 4.1 Abreu 3.9 Winckowski 3.9 Rafaela 3.4 Valdez 3.2 McGuire 2.5 Refsnyder 2.4 Walter 2.2 Wong 2.1 Reyes 1.7 Bernardino 1.0 Campbell, Murphy, DHam 0.8 ZKelly, Weissert, Heineman & RGonzalez

I'm not worried about his health, all that much. The TJS adds risk to longer term deals, but to me, he'd be fine for 3 years, and to get a good pitcher like him, it almost always takes at least 1 more year. I'd offer him a 3 year deal with a 4th year team option and hefty buyout, and if he insists on 4 guaranteed, I'd do it. Maybe... $70M/3 with a $20M option and $5M buyout- making it $75M/3 or $90M/4. or $85M/5 with $5M in incentives based on GS or IP. I'd probably go as high as $80M/3 or $96M/4.

To some extent, we can look back and see the flaws that were always there for some of our highest ranked past prospects. Pitchers who did not throw over 96 or 97. Pitchers like DHern, with unhittable stuff, but mostly because the pitches were 8 inches off the plate. 1Bmen with power and or high OBP but also high K rates. Guys like Jeter Downs, Swihart and maybe Yorke. Maybe I'm blinded by hope, but I don't see many flaws in Anthony. Teels is a bit unproven. Mayer needs to show he deserves the hype. Here are all the Sox prospects that have been ranked top 3 in the last 9 years (2015-2023): Devers, ERod, Casas, Bello, Beni, Houck, Duran, Moncada (Whitlock was 4th) Anthony, Teel, Mayer Rafaela, Bleis Dalbec, Travis, Yorke, Mata Groome, Downs, DHern, Chavis, Espinoza, Swihart, Owens The "success rate" might be 50%, when all is said and done from this group. 10 years ago, in just 1 season, we saw Betts, Bogey & JBJ in the top 3 (2014.)

We all know many of the highest ranked prospects never pan out or end up as role players or journeymen. While soxprospects.com has done a pretty good job with its rankings, there have been plenty of major swings and misses. All-in-all, I'd rather have more highly ranked prospects than not. I like the chances that 2 out of our top 3 prospects (Anthony, Teel or Mayer) will end up being very solid players to much better than that. I think the odds one does not do well is higher than all 3 doing well, but I like the odds one 2 being good to excellent. The next 4-10 slots is a pretty big drop off. Maybe just 1-2 of those 6 amount to anything special. I'm not sure if this is being a homer or a realist.

He had hip surgery in SEP '22. That might have been part of his issues. Some think making him a SP'er messed him up. The guy had some nasty stuff. I hope he gets it back and stays in the pen.

Devers & Anthony with 2 hits, today. Story with a couple rbi. Whitlock started and K'd 6 in 3 IP (0 BB) 3 hits and 1 ER Criswell went 2 IP (3K, 1BB, 3H, 0ER) Sox won 5-2 and are 4-2 in ST'ing. In 5 IP, this spring, Whitlock has 8 Ks and 0 BBs (4 hits)

Agreed. Close to Rafaela.

Where do you think Grissom would be placed in our prospect rankings, if he still was one? Of course, Jeter Downs was ranked highly, at one point.

Nola 90 wins in 9 seasons 6 wins in 20 GS 12 in27 17 in 33 12 in 34 5 in 12 (2020) 9 in 32 11 in 32 12 in 32 (last 3 years with 32 GS each year: 32 wins or 10.6 per year.) Big money.) Sonny Gray has not had more than 11 wins since 2014. 5, 10, 11, 11, 5, 7, 8, 8 in last 7 years: Big money. Rodon & deGrom just twice, each.

Is there anyone even close?

Is it all that unusual? In the past 3 years (split seasons), I looked at the top SP pitchers by ERA (100+ IP in a season), and here is how many SP'er had 11 wins or less: 24 out of the top 60

Agreed. They must think some fans can't figure it out, so saying it keeps the sham working for them.