moonslav59

I knew and said it was an overpay and for too long, but felt it was a very necessary signing. I remember saying his profile was about as good as it can be up to the signing.

Houck had a 2.0 bWAR over his first 2 seasons, combined- 86 IP (16 GS and 5 RP appearances.) Pivetta has had stretches of 20+ starts, where his numbers look better than many teams' #2 or 3 SP'er. He's had bWARs of 2.5, 2.6 and 2.4, the last 3 seasons. In theory, we could have 5 guys over 2.0: Giolito (repeat '19, '20 pro-rated, or 2021) Bello (repeat 2023) Pivetta (just repeat 2021, 2022 or 2023) Crawford (repeat 2023) Houck (repeat 2020-2021) Why does this seem so unlikely? (It does, to me.)

That was the great "what if..." I think they decided to fill the O, one year and the Pitching, the next. Price looked solid, on paper. Injury free. Work horse. Consistent top performer. I'm not sure he looked much different from Scherzer, at the times of their signings. The added bonus of signing Scherzer over Price would have likely been NOT to sign Pablito & HRam. If they spent on O, the following year, it's hard to imagine doing worse than those two.

That's the pen. We need SP'ers, badly. I like to see us get two solid innings eaters, but one would bring us much closer to having a chance at competing.

For penny pinching, yes, Dalbec gets the nod. I'd rather see others on the 26, but they will all get their looks, if they deserve it.

The grass is greener, due to warmer climate and excessive watering.

The true meaning of "Moneyball."

soxpropsects.com usually does a pretty good job, all around, but I do wonder why they have Winckowski in AAA to start the season, and Campbell on the big club. I understand the situation with Rule 5 Slaten and out of options Mata creating a roster situation, but I'd flip the two. (They have Wink starting.) They also have us acquiring another SP and a RF'er. (O'Neill in LF, Duran in CF and Yoshida at DH. They have Dalbec on the 26 with reyes, McGuire and Ref as the subs. Both rafaela and Abreu in AAA. Much can change, for sure. I can't see Dalbec on the 26. That might mean we'll have to add a RF'er who can also back-up 1B, or give someone a 1Bman's mitt and hope Casas can play nearly everyday at 1B. We have SP'er depth in our MLB pen, but avoiding their use as starters would vault our pen to top 5-8 status. In AAA, we'll have: Max Castillo, Richard Fitts, Grant Gambrell, Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy as depth. The pen depth is pretty strong, especially if 3-4 out of our swingmen (Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock) can stay in the pen. Jansen, Martin, 1-4 swingmen, Schreiber, Winckowski, Bernardino, Slaten, Mata, Campbell, Criswell, Weissert, Kelly, Guerrero and converted SP'ers in AAA. (Benitez and Olivares may climb.) Catcher depth on the farm: Roberto Perez & Stephen Scott in AAA, Teel & Hickey in AA, plus Jo Garcia and B Brannon in A+. That's solid minor league depth at a position many teams are dying in. 1B: Dalbec in AAA, along with Kavadas. Jordan in AA. 2B: E Valdez, Yorke & DHam at AAA and Paulino at AA. SS: DHam at AAA and Mayer at AA. (Romero A+, Zanetello A- and Cespedes FCL offer some very nice hopes for the future.) 3B: Meidroth at AAA and Lugo in AA. (A Anderson has promise) LF: Rosier (McDonough in AA) CF: Rafaela (Anthony in AA, Castro in A+ & Bleis in A- have a ton of promise) RF: Abreu (Yuten is far away) DH: E Valdez, Yorke, Hickey, Kavadas (K Campbell)

If we don't sign or trade for top SP'ers, it will NOT be good enough. Even if we assume, changes made have already set in motion an advance in the area of pitching prospect scouting, acquisition and development, it will be years and years before we even start seeing results at the MLB level. There has to be some sort of "bridge plan" beyond guys like Perez, Richards, Paxton, Wacha, Hill and Giolito. It's a losing formula based on long hopes of everything gelling, at once, every so often.

Maybe, someday... That is the best hope Sox fans have, right now.

One aspect of "monetball" is not moneyball.

They never really went the Rays' Way all the way. Everything they do is half-ass.

All levers seems to imply financially, too.

I'm fine with cycles that include rings. I remember thinking that 2021 might have done more harm than good to "the plan." It bought two more years of the sham.

It was not just 2021. After the great Dodger purge (CC, AGon & Beckett,) we did NOT come close to replacing their value, the following ring year- 2013. Opening Day payrolls: $168M '10 $164M '11 $175M '12 $154M '13 Yes, 2004's payroll was larger than pre-2004 and 2005-2006. Yes, 2007 was more than '08 & '09. Yes, 2018 was more than ever, but it was less than 2019, which was DD's worst year by record. 2013 and 2021 were "low points" in budgets, when compared to surrounding seasons. When you look at end of year 40 man roster budgets, one thing is common: after each ring year, the budget dropped: $130>117 "04>'05 $155>147 '07>'08 $176>168 '13>'14 $230>228 '18>'19 (It went up $30M from '21 to '22.)

Probably not, but if we can get some good value from 3-4 of the 5 you listed, plus maybe one more from the castaways, that should help an already decent pen.

It's the same ole- same ole...

The tro of Crawford, Houck and Whitlock have the skills and some history to suggest upside showings in 2024. We have a ton or young or younger arms in the pen that could grow and improve with proper guidance or a key tweak here or there. Slaten Mata Campbell Fitts (SP?) Weissert Kelly Criswell Murphy & Walter Guerrero & German Benitez & Olivares Hagenman, Hoppe & Troye

Yup. While the budget was an issue, especially in 2020, Bloom did spend a lot of money, and most of his top 10 signings were not good ones. That's on him.

Yes, that is very likely and a pretty sure bet.

Fine, but more games at DH by Yoshida should be a good thing. He started 49 games at DH in 2023. Starting 80-100 could be a significant boost to our OF defense, but if it means more games in CF by Duran, that might offset that by some. 2023 Duran GS 62 CF 20 LF Flip that to 90-120 in LF and 20-40 in CF: win-win.

Turner just forces Yoshida to LF and Duran to CF. I'd pass, and I'm a big JT fan. Duvall is not a bad idea, but only if they view him as a better RF'er than O'Neill. Signing him would also push Duran to CF. I'm not a fan of Duran in CF. If we signed either of these guys, then traded Duran or Yoshida (in a package for a SP'er), it would make more sense.

I've answered this, but here is my take, again. 1. Bloom is the scapegoat. 2. Bloom did very poorly with his largest expenditures. (Like Ben with Pablo & HRam) 3. The mandate was build the farm while staying competitive. (We were in just 1 of 3 seasons: 2021.) JH is hoping Brez can do better on bigger ticket items. Bloom's largest 10 expenditures: 1. $300M+ on Devers (unknown results) 2. $140M on Story (2 years in- bad results) 3. $100M+ on Yoshida (1 year in- unknown results, but one poster thinks it's a failure.) 4. $32M Jansen (2 yrs) looks good 5. $24M Barnes (2 yr extension)- horrible 6. $24M Kike (3 yrs)- good 2021- horrible next 2 yrs 7. $17.5M Martin (2 yrs) looks good 8. $11M M Perez (2 yrs) ho-hum 9. $10M Richards (1)- bad 10. $10M Kluber (1)- bad It is not hard to think any FO would expect better than this. To me, this is almost totally the reason Bloom was replaced by Brez. Can anyone say, for sure, that if Bloom was given an extra $10-15M, each winter, he'd have spent it wisely? Sure, a couple what ifs like Eflin and bringing Nate back would have helped, but some other "near misses" were thankful ones.

The penalty season didn't help, either. The fact that most of the prospects DD traded away did not amount to much, doesn't change the fact that we saw very little impactful farm infusion after Devers in the summer of 2017- all the way to Casas/Bello. It is very hard for any team to win with basically, just Houck added in a 5 year stretch.

We don't seem to want to pay any SP'er market value beyond 2-3 years.