moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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I like the idea, but O'Neill, when healthy, should be a very good hitter vs LHPs and RHPs. His career splits are pretty even. .816 v LHPs, which is the short end of a platoon. (maybe he could start v some RHPs) .765 v RHPs (I'm not sure Abreu projects higher than .765 v RHPs.) In his big 2021 season: 1.025 v LHPs .888 v RHP I think maybe we sit Rafaela a bit more, so O'Neill & Abreu play more. Maybe sit Duran vs several LHPs, to spread out the PAs more evenly. When healthy: O'Neill: 90% vs RHPs/ 100% v LHPs (RF/LF) Duran: 100% v RHPs/ 50% v LHPs (CF/LF) Abreu: 100% v RHPs/ 50% v LHPs (RF/CF) Rafaela: 10% v RHPs/ 100% v LHPs (CF) Is this enough playing time for Rafaela? If you give him 50+% vs RHPs, and we could sit Abreu? This assume no Yoshida in the OF.
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Has Duran played RF, at all, in ST'ing? I still think it will be... LF: O'Neill (Yoshida when not at DH) CF: Duran (Abreu when not in RF) RF: Abreu (O'Neill when Yoshida is in LF) 4th: Refsnyder (when healthy) AAA: Rafaela (at least until he earns the extra year of control)
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Predict the 2024 AL East standings
moonslav59 replied to Randy Red Sox's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
bal 97-65 tbr 93-69 nyy 85-77 tor 84-78 bos 82-80 -
I'm thinking maybe Criswell deserves a slot on the 26 and may do well. (I thought that about Andriese, too.)
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He just turned 31, less than 3 months ago. He will be 31 through all of year 1, 32 for year 2 and just 33 for year 3. 33 is not old. His birthday is in December. Here is the list of top pitchers in 2023. How far down the list do you have to go to find 1, 2 or 3 SP'ers under 31? (I did not do the research, but I think it's #14 German Marquez. Castillo at #9 is 31, I believe.)
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How do you figure he may not even be a "true #2?" In just about every meaningful stat and metric he is top 15-50, maybe top 60 on 1 or two. There are 60 #1's and #2's in MLB. I do agree he will not get the money or years he seeks. I think he'll get 3 years with a 4th year option and decent buy out. Maybe... $75M/3 with a $20M 4th year and $5M buyout- making it $80M/3 or $95M/4. He will not be old in year 3. He might even be very good in year 4. Injury is always a worry, but we need to roll the dice on proven, good pitchers. Monty is one. (I am nearly certain JH will not pay what he ends up getting.)
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Of course we all prefer younger players, but with JH, it's mostly about cost. IMO, we should have signed Yamo. Risky, yes, but his age was something you never see on the open market. Monty is NOT old. He doesn't have 100,000 miles on his arm, although he does have a TJS history. I'm talking about trying to win now AND in the next 2 years. We aren't trading top prospects, so I'd like Monty. I know JH is almost certainly saying no.
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Why? Because maybe we can compete in '24 and '25. I'm not saying your idea is not a good one. If we truly are ounting, then Monty makes little sense. I'm not so sure we will sign "younger and better" pitchers, later. They cost more, and JH might not ever snap out of this funk. I don't think Monty is going to get the years and dollars some think he will. We'll see.
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He was never going to make the 40, let alone 26. BTW, soxprospects.com has him projected on the bench to start the AAA season.
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I think our offense is top 10 and better than 2-3 other teams in our division. I think our pen is top 10-12, if not overused. I think our defense improved from 30th to maybe 15-20th. Greatly improving the rotation could make us a playoff contender, but we'd need so much to go right. One point about needing things to go right. We don't really need career years from a lot of player. Just coming close to recent years on more than a few. We also have several options of players needed to do well at some positions. I'm not saying we should be favorites to even make the last WC slot, but we could get real close with Monty.
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Proportionally, each division should have 2 teams in the top 12. Having 4 really emphasizes just how strong the ALE is. This is also WS chances, and being 4th in the division, like TOR is, greatly reduces their chances at a playoff shot. MLB.com's Jan 1st power rankings had this: 4. BAL 7. TBR 8. NYY 10. TOR (4 in the top 10- not 12) 19. BOS (5 in top 19, when the norm should be 3 in the top 18.)
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Starting 9 in AAA (soxprospects.com) C Heineman 1B Dalbec 2B Yorke 3B Meidroth SS Hamilton LF Guthrie CF Rafaela RF Contreras DH R Gonzalez. Bench: C Kolozsvary, C/1B Scott, IF Dunand, IF Sogard, UT Westbrook AA (an interesting team) C Teel 1B Jordan, Kavadas 2B McDonough, Koss 3B Paulino, Binelas SS Mayer, Lugo LF Rosier CF Anthony RF Sikes DH/C Hickey A+ C Rosario, Lira 1B Sierra 2B Ravelo, Ferguson 3B C Coffey SS Romero LF Jimenez CF Castro RF Chacon DH K Campbell
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soxprospects.com now projects Criswell to be on the 26 man roster as the 6th SP'er. Here are their projected rotations at the minor league levels (many have 6 listed) AAA: Murphy, Walter, Fitts, Gambrell, Van Belle AA: Wikelman, Dobbins, Bastardo, I Coffey, Penrod, Song A+: Perales, Sandlin, Monegro, E R-C, Rogers, Duffy A-: Early, Judice, Soto, Cohen, F Hernandez, Mullins FCL: Polanco, Batista, Balderas, Lee, Yonfi Rodriguez
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Opening Days in the minors... MAR 29 Worcester @ Lehigh Valley APR 5 Hartford @ Portland Greenville @ Greensboro Carolina @ Salem
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MLB.com ranks the Sox 23rd in their "World Series Draft," but says they would pick them to win the AL Central. The ALE is well represented in the top 12: 3. BAL 7. NYY 8. TBR 12. TOR
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It was a strange off season that saw some outlandish long term deals, and then some deals to very good players seemingly underpaid.
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3 years will bring a higher AAV than 5, but it might be his last "big payday." I agree that BorA$$ blew it with these guys.
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Their rotation injuries are mounting, and some that are healthy looked suspect, late last year. They also have stiff competition in their division with Texas & Seattle looking tough. I think they sign him before May 1st. Signing May 1st means mid to late May action. Signing, now, means early to mid April- maybe 6 more starts.
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They need him, now. I think he won't put them over the tax line, but I could be wrong.
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Yes, saying we think we should does not mean we think it might or will happen. There are some reports that say we are still in the mix, but I serious doubt we get the prize.
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Saying I am "highly suspect" means I think JH will approve? Also, it will not be 5-6 years, IMO. It will be 3-4 with a possible 5th year option & buyout.
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What's the big worry? .890 Rafaela .900 Story 1.120 Devers .771 Yoshida .602 Casas 1.176 Wong .786 EValdez .794 Duran .961 O'Neill
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Astros in "serious pursuit of Blake Snell."
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I'm not dreaming. I am highly suspect it happens. I do think it would go a long way towards giving us hope for 2024, while still being impactful for 2025 and 2026. The cost should not be really high.
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Why? No penalty for Monty.
