moonslav59

I don't think teams hold grudges over their past mistakes. Maybe they learned from their mistakes on Moncada and Kopech, but I doubt they blame a team. I do not think Yorke is worth the 13 value BTV gives him, and I doubt any GM does. He'd likely be a nice throw-in to a deal, and not needing t be on the 40 is a plus. Being a secondary target begs the question, "Who is the primary guy?" Let's say most GMs value Yorke between 6-10, and we don't want to part with a top 3 prospect. We aren't going to get a projected #1-2 SP'er. It's doubtful we can get a #3, unless we package 3-4 mid level guys. Some teams likely want Rafaela, but I'd hesitate on trading him. We have to give to get, and I don't see us trading Duran and Rafaela, even if we sign Duvall. Maybe Duran or Rafaela plus Yorke and a promising A+ prospect. Maybe Houck + Yorke + Wikelman or Peralez for a #3-4 SP. If MIA needed a 2Bman, trading Yorke plus 2 prospects between 10-25 would be good, for us, but they don't need Yorke. (3 teamer?) Giving up someone like Houck + Yorke and a3rd tier prospect(s) better work, as the guy we get back has to be a better bet than Houck, who could be a good SP'er, as is. I can see why many are hesitant to trade Duran. If he can play like 2023 for a full season, he's a very nice piece to the line-up. He can probably be an average LF'er in 2024 on D.

Finally, some evidence that an attempt to improve our pitching pipeline has begun. All I can say is, "What took them this long?" This is one of the most encouraging things I've read about this club in years.

I don't agree with all of the BTV numbers, but if any GM thinks these guys are worth nearly this much, I'd kick the tires on trades for a SP: 34 Duran 22 Houck 13 Yorke 10 Schreiber 8 EValdez 4.4 Walter 0.8 Mata (out of options) BTV accepted this 3 team trade: To BOS: E Cabrera (5 yrs) To MIA: H-S Kim (1 yr) + Blaze Jordan To SDP: Rafaela + Walter I like this accepted trade: To BOS: Braxton Garrett (5 yrs) To MIA: Duran (5 yrs), Houck (4 yrs) and Jordan

I doubt we had anyone to match the Lopez deal, and yes, Castillo cost a lot of talent, but I think he was worth it, and we had top prospects, at that time. Hell, I'd have settled for the Civale trade, at this point.

I still think we missed the boat on Luis Castillo or Pablo Lopez, but who knows, if those teams wanted any of our prospects.

One part of this team I am optimistic about is the offense. I know we lost Dugo, Turner and Duvall. Together, they provided a pretty big punch to out line-up, in terms of power, OBP and big hits. Turner was... 2nd in PAs 5th in OPS (.800) 3rd in HRs (23) 2nd in RBI (96) Duvall was... 8th in PAs 3rd in OPS (.834) 4th in HRs, despite just 320 ABs 5th in RBI (58 in 353 PAs) Dugo was.... 3rd in PAs 7th in OPS (.745) 6th in HRs (13) 6th in RBI (54) That is nearly 1600 PAs, total. I expect most of these PAs will be replaced by a possible acquisition for RF (Duvall) or LF (O'Neill to RF) and... O'Neill (LF/RF) career .776 OPS more PAs from: Duran (362 PAs> 550+) .828 OPS in 2023 Abreu (85 > ???) .862 Rafaela (89 > ???) .666 maybe EValdez (149) .764 or Refsnyder (243) .682 This may seem lacking, unless and until we see if we add anybody, but I'm hopeful we can match these 3 lost players with this group. This is the part that may give us a big boost: 2B/SS (2023>2924) 2023: .662 at 2B (PAs at 2B: 191 Arroyo, 148 EValdez, 88 Urias, 84 Reyes, 59 Kike, 24 Turner, 18 others) .636 at SS (224 Kike, 143 Story, 101 Chang, 87 Reyes, 34 DHam, 24 Rafaela, 10 Arroyo, 6 others) It might be a lot to ask for 550+ PAs from Story and Grissom, but just over 450 should provide a big boost to the offense. Story: .836 career OPS (.723 career away still blows away 2023.) Grissom: .746 career OPS with upside potential (Subs should be Reyes, Rafaela and EValdez) Other hopeful areas for improvement on 2023: Yoshida: it's his second year in the USA, and he should play more at DH, this year. He ended up at .783 in 2023, which is not horrible. I'm hopeful he can improve on his .338 OBP. He was at .851 on Aug 1st (.367 OBP) and was still at .800 on Sept 13th (.345 OBP) before slumping badly to end his first MLB season. Devers just turned 27 (peak prime for many players.) His .851 OPS was his 4th best in his last 4 full seasons. I think he can do better. His career high is .916, and I would not be surprised, if he tops that in 2024. Casas just turned 24. It's hard to project players at his age, but he was one of MLB's best second half hitters in 2023. He ended up at a very respectable .856 OPS. That is pretty amazing when you consider his OPS was still under .600 on May 6th. It was really more like a great 2/3rds of a season: May 7th> .931 OPS with 21 HRs in just 339 ABs! That's 40 HR power over 650 ABs. The hardest area to be really optimistic about on offense is our catchers, but there are some good signs. Both are still in their prime. I think both can improve o 2023's offense, but I'm not expecting by a whole lot. .673 Wong in 403 PAs (was at .729 on Sept 9th, including an .803 stretch of 40 games) .668 McGuire in 206 PAs (.740 since joining the Sox,. He was at .704 on Sept 14th, last year.) A lot will depend on the kids: Casas, Grissom, Abreu, Rafaela and maybe EValdez. I'm confident we can climb in the OPS rankings in 2024. Others lost: PA rank (2023 OPS) 9. Kike 323 (.599) 11. Arroyo 206 (..638 16. Chang 112 (.552) 17. Urias 109 .698 18. Tapia 97 (.701) 23. Alfaro 20 (.368) and C Hamilton 6 (.167) That's about 880 PAs. Not as much as the 1600 good PAs lost, but a pretty big chunk. Hopefully, less from 53 Dalbec .570 39 DHam .438 While I think our defense will still be below average, I think we can finish in the middle 10 tier. SS: more games by Story could provide a huge boost over 2023. 2B: While Grissom was a below average SS, I think he can become an average 2Bman, quickly. Even 16th to 20th in MLB would be a big plus over last yea's worst D at 2B. 1B: Casas showed improvement on D, last year, but still has a ways to go to get to the norm. 3B: Devers has been up and down. Last year was down. C: A hard area to call. Most catchers improve after age 27-28, so let's see. LF: Less of Yoshida has to be a plus. CF: Depends on how much Duran plays CF. Call it even. RF: Dugo did well, last year. We may dip a little, but Abreu may surprise, and O'Neill is not bad, when healthy. Our pen may be very good or average. A lot depoends on how much our tweeners are needed in the rotation. Our rotation looks worse than last year, to me. At best: even. Ceilings reached by most: better.

He's certainly getting a taste of shifting messaging. It sure seems like they shammed him, too.

Frank Schwindel? LOL

Anger at books. I wonder where that all started.

Sign stealing is not against the rules, even today. Using technology to do it is.

Ban the players, too?

It might be 7.

Astros making push for Hader. (I was wondering when they'd add someone.)

FAs Still Unsigned (Ranked by MLBTR) 2. Bellinger OF 4. Snell SP 6. Monty SP 7. M Chapman 3B 8. Josh Hader Closer (5 of top 8 still on the market) 16. Soler DH/LF 20. JD Martinez DH 26. Hoskins 1B 27. Stephenson RP 30. Clevinger SP (10 of top 30 still unsigned) 33. A Chapman RP 34. Lorenzen SP 38. Ursula UT 39. A Rosario SS/2B 40. Merrifield 2B 41 J Turner DH/1B/3B (16 out of 41.) 45. B Belt 1B 47. Jumis SP 49. Hendricks RP 50. T Anderson SS/2B Others: Duvall RF, Paxton SP (maybe 22 out of top 52?)

It makes me think 2025 is not in the plans, either.

Signing Clevinger or Paxton doesn't hurt the future.

I do think the Sox have a "window" in mind, and it does not include 2024. Even trading for a top pitcher with 4-5 years of control, essentially "wastes" a year of that control. While I think it would be nice to get a boost for 2024, even if they know a ring is highly improbable, I can at least understand that plan. It sure sucks, for now. I'm also thinking, they probably don't think Anthony, mayer and Teel will all be "in stride" by 2025, so they may be planning on 2026, for all we know. They sure know how to extend a 5 year rebuild plan. That's something they are good at.

We'd have to give up a non 40 man player, like maybe DHam or Lugo. I'm not sure what it would take. I'm thinking Mata will not impress, so he could be an easy DFA or trade choice. If he sucks in ST'ing, he might pass through waivers. You want to keep as many options open, as possible, especially for young pitchers with some sort of promise.

They might both make it, but neither can be sent to AAA.

Yes, I meant to make the last line RP7/AAA.

I listed some longshots and possible role players and depth. There is a chance some of the players you did not list improve and make an impact. It might be a long shot. Add the chances of Mata, Fitts and Guerrero, and I'd say there is a significant chance something good could happen in '24 or '25. (Maybe not over 50%, but maybe 33% to 50.

Let's assume minimal additions like Paxton & Duvall. This could be the opening day roster for 2024: 1. L Duran CF/ R Grisson 2B 2. L Devers 3B 3. R O'Neill LF 4. L Casas 1B 5. R Duvall RF 6. L Yoshida DH 7. R Story SS 8. R Grissom 2B/ L Duran CF 9. LR Wong C/ L McGuire C Bench: Reyes, Refsnyder, Wong/McGuire, Abreu/Rafaela, EValdez/Dalbec SP1 Bello SP2 Giolito SP3 Paxton SP4 Pivetta SP5 Crawford SP6 Houck (RP) RP1 Jansen RP2 Martin RP3 Winckowski RP4 Schreiber RP5 Whitlock RP6 Slaten or Mata AAA Bernardino, Campbell, Criswell, Weissert, Kelly, Murphy, Walter, Castillo, Fitts, Gambrell, Guerrero

He was a major part of the cheating upgraded system. I did not mean to imply otherwise. When you look at punishment handed out for other infractions, a one year suspension was "major." Maybe you don't think it was enough, but it was one of the largest penalties handed out in MLB history. No, others doing it is not an excuse, but others going without any punishment, and some higher ups caught lying and not getting any further punishment does add context to what Cora got. The release of further evidence, after the MLB ruling exposes a much wider group of people, some who denied knowing anything, but clearly did. Other teams were caught using technology to steal signs, including the Sox and got less punishment. There is a thing called precedent when determining how harsh a penalty should be. In many ways, Cora's higher ups stabbed him in the back.

Trying to point out a major factor in our lack of success was often viewed as apologies for the CBO. No doubt, Bloom made some major mistakes, and not just with over half of his largest FA signings, but also trades like the JBJ one and all the inaction and "near misses." Bloom deserved to be fired, but that still does not mean he was the major issue for our lack of success. It seems obvious, now, to most, but this is just more of the same, but on hyper drive. Once we did not replace Kimbrell and Kelly, the ball was set in motion. Although the Sale, Bogey and nate extensions and re-signings masked much of the non spending, by keeping our team payroll budget pretty high, the 2020 season should have been a clear sign to all, the ownership financial commitment was no longer there. The amount of new winter spending fell way short of salaries lost before 2020, and despite seeing the payroll rise in 2021 and again in 2022, it still did not come close to the 2019 budget that was already trimmed of 2 solid RP'er salaries. Then, to see a $10M drop, last winter should have been the final eye-opener on where the fault should have been mostly placed. Again, I'm not making excuses for Bloom. He botched most of his largest signings, was paralyzed with inaction, at key moments, and made some bad trades, He did make several good low-level signings and additions, and seemed to do a very good job building the farm back up- both in quality and quantity, but ultimately, it was not enough. His choice to draft mostly HS picks delayed the impact from the farm. He won't get to see the results of that.

I know much of the Sox prospect talk has focused on the lack of clear good pitchers, but it's hard not to be optimistic about the future projected farm infusion. Of course, some will not pan out as hoped, and some might become just role players or barely above replacement level back-ups, but I have to say, I'm impressed by the quality and quantity of prospects that have a decent chance at making a contribution. We just graduated: 2023: Casas, EValdez, Murphy, Bernardino & kelly 2022: Bello, Crawford, Duran & Wink 2021" Whitlock & Houck Estimated graduation years: 2024: Rafaela, Abreu, Slaten, Mata, Yorke, Fitts, Guerrero (Walter, DHam, Rosier, Sogard, Lugo, Liu) 2025: Anthony, Mayer, Teel, Perales, Wikelman, Meidroth, Monegro, Hickey (Jordan, Dobbins, E R-C, Bastardo, Hoppe, Troye, Gambrell, I Coffey, S Scott, Hagenman) 2026: Bleis, Castro, Song (Paulino, Romero, Brannon, C Coffey, Penrod, Ravelo, K Campbell, Benitez, Olivares, Soto, Early, Mullins) 2027: Cespedes, Zanetello, Jo Garcia, A Anderson (Alcantara, Arias, Yuten, Sena, Reimer, Paez, Cepeda, Judice, Encarnacion)