moonslav59

So, our SP'er and SP'er depth: 1. Bello 2. Giolito 3. Pivetta 4. Crawford 5. Houck 6. Whitlock (should stay in pen) 7. Winckowski (being "stretched out," but should also stay in pen) 8/9. Murphy/Walter (soxprospects places him in the pen and Walter in the rotation) 10. Max Castillo 11. Fitts 12. Gambrell 13. Criswell (Wikelman?) It's not a big deal, but I don't see why Criswell should jump more than 1 or 2 guys on this list.

How many here would trade Yoshida, saving the most money possible, regardless of the return and Jansen, so we could sign Monty? (Remember, Sale's contract is off the books, next year, along with Pivetta, O'Neill and Martin's contracts.)

Last year, our D was maybe 28th to 30th. You think we get to #20 with the alignment you suggest? Remember, Abreu should play quite a bit in RF, LF and maybe CF. He should be better than Duran, Ref, Duvall and Yoshida from 2023.

Agreed. I said that day one of this winter. One could stretch to say Gio is a #2, if we got a real #1.

This team has come a long way from the greatest team in Red Sox history: 2018. There is no question, we are far from that level, right now. The decline began in 2019, when we lost Kimbrell and Kelly, and started seeing sharp declines from several players, some due to natural age decline. Porcello would soon be out of baseball, all together. Sale and Price have never come close to their previous glory. Nate had a few good seasons, but missed quite a few starts after 20.18, and beginning in 2019. Our 2019 pen of Barnes, Workman, Walden, Brasier, Brewer, Brasier and others was nothing special. It's that core of everyday stars we miss the most: Betts, Bogey, JD, Beni, JBJ and Vaz. The last 3 are no longer viewed as viable players, so it's really about the loss of Betts, Bogey, JD, ERod and Nate. The rest of the 2019 roster might have been pretty good, then, but would not be viewed as plusses, now. The returning Devers, if of course, still a plus. The big trade with the Dodgers and failure to replace the loss of Porcello and a few others after 2019, left the 40 man roster and farm looking pretty shallow at the start of 2020. Erod sitting out the season hurt. No Sale did, too, but the depth of the roster and ML ready farm was about as low as we've seen in the Henry era. Lack of funding and farm depth took its toll. This was the season ending roster of 2019 (along with the top prospects), at the time: SP: ERod, Nate, Price, Sale, Porcello, Cashner (Houck, Shawaryn, K Hart) RP: Workman, Barnes, Taylor, Walden, DHern, Brasier, Hembree, J Smith (Lakins, Chacin, Poyner) C: Vaz & Leon (Centeno & Oscar Hernandez) 1B: Moreland & Sam Travis (Chavis/Dalbec) 2B: Holt, Owings SS: Bogey, Marco Hernandez (Chatham) 3B: Devers (Dalbec) LF: Beni (Brentz) CF: JBJ (Gorkys Hern) RF: Betts (Rusney Castillo) DH: JD That was one hell of a core of 6, and the next best 6-8 players were pretty decent or showed real promise, but seriously, look at the bottom 25-27 on the 40. The top prospects listed on soxprospects.com in OCT or '23: 1. Casas (2-3 years away) 2. Mata has never met expectations 3. Groome was a big letdown 4. Gilberto Jimenez was, too 5. Dalbec showed a brief stretch of promise, then fizzled out quickly 6. Duran is only now showing the promise from 4+ years ago. 7. Houck was the only real significant plus from the farm from the summer of 2017 to mid 2022. Even he has lost some luster. 8. Song, 9. Chatham, 10. T Ward... Blah 11-20 had 12. Aldo Ramirez traded for Schwarber, 13. Chris Murphy who might give us something, Bello at 17 and Rafaela at #19. I can't help but think this roster depth was pitiful. There was no way that solid core of 6 plus the supporting 6-8 others could never have carried that team to glory without some serious star help that never came. That being said, while our core of stars has shrunk from 6 to 2-3 (maybe Devers, Casas and possibly Bello and Story), the roster and farm depth is light years better than the end of 2019 and start of 2020. Core 3: Devers, Casas & Bello Supporting 9: Martin, Jansen, Wink, Giolito, Story, O'Neill, Yoshida, Grissom & Duran. Beyond these 12: Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, Castillo, Murphy Schreiber, Bernardino, Slaten, Campbell, Criswell, Bernardino Wong, McGuire, Reyes, Refsnyder ML Ready Prospects: (farther away) Fitts, Walter, Gambrell (Wikelman, Perales, Monegro) Weissert, Kelly, Guerrero (Benitez, Olivares) Perez, Scott (Teel, Hickey, Jo Garcia, Brannon) Kavadas (Jordan) E Valdez, Yorke (A Anderson) DHam (Mayer, Cespedes) Meidroth (Zanetello, Paulino) Abreu (Castro) Rafaela (Anthony Rosier (Bleis I may be a homer, but this depth is a major improvement. Call it "mediocrity" or whatever, but it's better than what it was, and the farm depth, too. Now, we just need to add 2-3 major stars and let the others battle over winning support roles.

You make good points, but I do want to point out a few things about the top 26 players of 2021 by playing time: Pitching (listed by most IP) Nate: a big loss that has not been replaced with the likes of Giolito, although GIO rates to give us more GS. ERod was not replaced (Bello) Pivetta is still here and about the same as '21- maybe better, now. Richards is easy to replace. I'm glad he's gone. Perez: see Richards Whitlock is back but more questionable than in '21. Houck is back and hard to guess his '24 projection. Ottavino is not as good as our pen guys, now. (Martin) Barnes was not as good as Jansen. Sawamura: If we can't improve on him, yikes! Josh Taylor was pretty good- so is Wink. Sale could never be counted on. DHern/ P Valdez/ Andriese are easily improved upon in 2023. The line-up is where we take a beating at several slots: (listed by most PAs) Devers- the same JD Martinez- a step down by Yoshida Verdugo- maybe O'Neill can give us the same Bogey to Story looks like an overall step down, but health could change that. Kike in '21 was damn good, but do we really wish he was still here? Renfroe is replace by Duran. I'd rather have Duran. Vaz is past prime. I'd rather have Wong/McGuire than Vaz/Plawecki Dalbec was worse than Casas. Marwin was horrible (replaced by Rafaela/Abreu/Ref) Arroyo was worse than what Grissom should be. Corder/Santana/Schwarber replaced by Abreu/Rafaela/Refsnyder/Reyes- even?

I think we safely say Grissom will be our 2Bman on opening day. I can't see him being worse than the worst in MLB, as we were in '23 at 2B. We know Story is our SS, and on paper, he's better than Kike & Co. by a long shot. It's all about health. Our corner IF cannot really be any worse than 2023, either. I know you hate counting on anyone to "improve," but Casas did looks better at 1B, as the season played out. Devers is all over the place, but 2023 was one of his worst seasons. Maybe expect the same at 3B, a slight improvement at 1B, a significant improvement at 2B and a vast improvement at SS, a position that carries added weight. The OG alignment is very much up in the air, and an addition might be pending. I do think, no matter what we do, Yoshida will likely see less time in LF, and that looks like a plus, by itself. Dugo was good on D in RF, last year, so whoever plays RF will have to do well to improve that slot. If Duran plays more CF than he did in 2023, it's hard to imagine a big improvement there, but it's not like Duvall was great in CF, last season. In theory, we might see this (granted- very speculative): LF: Duran/O'Neill/Abreu> 2023 Yoshida 713, Ref 347, Duran 173, Tapia 86 CF: Rafaela/Duran> 2023 Duran 557, Duvall 478, Rafaela 117, Kike 87, Abreu 85, Ref 68 RF: O'Neill/Abreu = 2023 Dugo 1179, Duvall 180, Tapia 52 Catching: call it even, although catchers usually reach defensive prime after age 28.

I'd say about as close to "mediocrity" as you can be. When you consider strength of schedule, one could easily argue we have been better than mediocre, overall.

Our 2B position was nothing short of awful in 2023, and wasn't all that great before that either. On defense: 2021-2023 Team D at 2B: OAA Split Seasons Rankings (120 team samples) 120. BOS 2023 (-50) 118. BOS 2021 (-40) 91. BOS 2022 (-13) 3 years combined: 28. Nats -87 29. BOS -108 30. CIN -109 To be fair, DRS and UZR/150 have us near average over the last 3 seasons. On offense: 2021-2023 .722 OPS (14th) We were 16th from '22-'23 at .694 93 wRC+ (20th) We were 23rd from '22-'23 at 87. 2024: 26th in wRC+ at 75. The .663 OPS in '24 was 22nd and just .002 from 24th. I think Grissom gives us, perhaps, the best chance at improving a position on offense and defense than any other positions, except SS (a healthy Story vs Kike & Co..)

I think you guys are splitting hairs over some wording. I see your point and don't think Grissom failed, out of the gates. I guess, one might argue that if his defense was a plus and he hit .900, maybe he would have played more SS with ATL, and "won the job," but they knew all along he was not a plus defender at SS and hence added Arcia. I also see GG's point and think Grissom would not have really had a shot at being a FT'er with ATL in 2024, unless there was an injury, so "in a way" he is getting an opportunity to be a FT'er with us. In fact, it looks like 2B is already his to lose. That would not have been the case in ATL. He certainly has a better opportunity with BOS. Maybe "better" opportunity is closer to the mark than "second," but I don't see this as a big deal. Grissom will be given a strong chance to get over 600 PAs with BOS at 2B. I'm very hopeful he will not disappoint us.

These guys do offer some hope for glory in 2024, but to me, we need too many things to click, all at once, for us to go anywhere in '24. I also think we are hurting our chances at having a top tier pen by using 2-3 of our tweener pitchers as starters. I think our offense will be top 10 or very near it. I think our defense should improve from 28th to 30th to near average or near 20th. Our pen strength depends, heavily, on where Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock and Wink spend most of their time. The rotation holds the key. Adding Giolito to replace the injury-prone Sale-Paxton tandem does look encouraging, but those two did coombine for 39 GS and nearly 200 IP, last season, so he can't really fill all those starts lost. The rest will have to come from our tweeners. Adding one more innings eater, even if not a great or even very good SP'er would at least greatly improve the pen, on paper. Paxton may or may not start 20-30 games, next year. Clevinger rates to start more. Someone like Lorenzen might be who we settle on. I'm trying real hard to look for glimmers of hope, so I reposted this post of mine from a few days ago, highlighting the best of the best these pitchers of ours have done, in recent seasons- some very recently. I do realize, some teams have gone very far without a plus rotation, but that is rare. Certainly, our odds of doing well in 2024 would improve by adding a solid SP'er. I just don't see how we do it, unless we trade Jansen, and then we are essentially robbing Peter to pay Paul.

I think Bailey and Brez might just be the answer, but right now, there is way too much riding on upside potential for the rotation as is.

Masslive's Christopher Smith reports that Cooper Criswell recently told reporters that club brass have instructed him to come to camp ready to start. They have spoken of "stretching out" Winckowski, too.

We’ve been at about .500 over the last 3 years, combined.

He did say “second chance in a way,” but I do see 2024 as his first real chance to win a FT job. 2B is his to win, keep or hold.

You did not answer the Q.

This kid is no Jeter Downs!

You think they actually believe their statements, or are you just optimistic we can cobble together a worthy pitching staff?

Career in ATL: 49 GS at 2B 19 GS at SS He was never viewed as the SS who had the FT job.

How much longer do they expect fans to fall for this fake optimism?

I would not think of Grissom as a “second chance” guy. Many SSs move to2B, and ATL was loaded. It’s sad that it looks like even Clevinger + Duvall is too much money for our winter budget.

I’m not sure we can surmise JH’s thoughts and beliefs. You don’t have to think fans are morally obliged to believe they will keep coming to games and paying top dollar to boot. I do think he’s going through a phase of not going all in and thinking enough people will go to the games or watch harm on TV, for him to keep making money. He’s well aware of dropping attendance and NESN viewership. He’s weighed the losses vs the savings and seems to be okay with a lull in top competitiveness. How long can this continue is the big wonder, to me.

It’s weird how we haven’t heard any or many rumours on a lot of free agents. There are still many left unsigned.

To me, even just those two would be more evidence of a continuing sham. I think the feel they need to go through the motions, and a couple one year deals fits into their scheme.

I think we sign Paxton and Duvall.