moonslav59

That 26 starts by Hill was the 4th most in his 19 year career. (I'm not defending the piggyback idea. I hated it.)

He did start 26 games- second to Pivetta and more than Nate & Wacha. (26 GS was as much as Crawford & Wink, combined.)

He'll be 37 in a couple months and hasn't has a good, full season since 2019.

Matt Moore gets $9M with Angels. WOW! Hoskins to get $34M/2 with Brewers.

Both he and Wood look like perfect Sox signings. Maybe sign 'em both!

A trade need not be for a 1-2 year pitcher.

He's had more good years than bad (by over 2 to 1,) but last year was not good. Seems like just the guy for us.

Top FA SP'ers remaining, as ranked by MLBTR: 4. Snell 6. Montgomery 30. Clevinger 34. Lorenzen 47. Junis Non top 50 Ryu Wood Lauer Kershaw (Not listed: Bauer & Urias)

No. He does pretty well until the 19th batter.

Partly because they wouldn't yank starters getting drilled early.

I'd say Bello & Giolito should go 4+ innings nearly every start. The others are huge Q's.

I'm thinking with the uncertainty of 3 of our SP'ers, they may get yanked after 1-2 IP, more than we want to imagine.

While spending more on Gio than anything Bloom did, year one, Bloom lost more from the previous season (Betts, Price & Porcello.) so it seems eerily similar, to me.

This is almost as bad as Bloom's first winter before 2020, in terms of little new spending. The loss of Betts, Price and Porcello vs JT, Duvall, Paxton, Sale and others is not the same, however, but barely replacing them is, so far.

I did add some Brez trades, and also grading his IFA signings, so far. While I do think there has been little change in the top FO philosophy since the start of 2019, I am hopeful Brez can and will do better than Bloom under the same circumstances. It's scary to think he has not been given Bloom's winter budgets of '21, '22 or '23.

Seems fair. Now, grade the IFA signings, each year. How about the trades for prospects and the Rulle 5 additions and subtractions? Grissom Campbell, Weissert & Fitts Abreu & EValdez Wink and Gambrell DHam & Binelas Whitlock (Rule 5) I won't ask about Wong.

Don't be surprised, if some of these guys get less than projected. Some may end up taking a one year deal, in hopes they get more next winter. There has been so little talk about some of these guys.

This will really go beyond absurd, if we fail to land a decent SP, and I'm just talking James Paxton level at the minimum, and now he's gone..

I saw a guy like Paxton as a possibility, and we can't even get him. I would prefer an innings eater over Paxton, but I figured a guy like him is maybe the best we could hope for. NOPE!

A Chapman to Pirates. McHugh retires.

A look at the 2024 Red Sox pen: I'll leave the talk of Pivetta, Houck and Crawford as possible relief pitchers and assume Whitlock and the "stretched out" Winckowski and Criswell will likely start off in the pen. I'll leave out talk of trading Jansen or adding pen pieces. Here is what we appear to have, right now: Closer: Jansen saw his numbers slip some at age 35, and now he's a year older. I still think he is a plus closer, and should help us hold down games handed over to him. Top Set-up (back up Closer:) Martin will turn 38 in April, but has not shown any signs of decline. In fact, his last two seasons are among his best back-to-back seasons in his career, if not the best. The 51 IP was his 3rd highest of his career. I'm hopeful he can hold off age decline for one more season. RP3: I have Winckowski here, but soxprospects.com has him as the #1 SP for AAA to start 2024. Wink was one of our best RP'ers in 2024, despite having a 3.3 BB/9 and a WHIP of 1.42 and an FIP of 3.91. I hope we keep him in the pen. RP4: Whitlock was one of the best RP'ers in MLB in 2021 (1.96 ERA/2,84 FIP and 1.105 WHIP) Many feel they messed him up by starting him, and it looks like he will be in the pen to start 2024. Let's hope he can return to close to what he was in '21. RP5: Schreiber looked pretty good in 2022 and battled some injuries in '23. Maybe he can get back to his '22 level. RP6: Bernardino might be just a flash in the pan, as many RP'ers are, but he looks like he has some real promise. RP7: Slaten is supposed to be a very promising pitcher. Only time will tell. RP8: Mata is out of options, so will be given a look before a decision is made to trade or DFA him, if he is struggling. This kid had some high hopes, several years ago, before all the injuries and rehabs. He might surprise us all. Depth: Campbell should get plenty of chances to earn a slot on the 26. He is likely better than 2-3 listed on the MLB staff. Criswell is probably a crap shoot. I'm not counting on much, but RP'ers are often a dice roll away from being useful or not. Murphy surprised a bit in 2023. He could win the lefty role. Weissert turns 29, soon and has some ML experience with a 4.29 FIP and 1.28 WHIP. Kelly showed some promise before getting hurt for 2023. Maybe he can get that back. Guerrero could be a surprise, this year. AAA SP'ers (Castillo, Walter, Fitts, Gambrell) This group may see some time in the pen in 2024 with the big club. I like Fitts quite a bit. Extended depth (Weiss, Jacques, Benitez, Olivares, Hagenman, Politi, Booser, Hoppe & Troye) Let's hope we don't need to go this deep, but there is hope 1 or 2 might rise up and get a look-see. All-in-all, our pen looks about average. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I feel it could be top 10, if 2 out of the 3 I listed above, Houck, Crawford & Pivetta, can spend more time in the pen than the rotation, or stop being jerked back and forth and just stay in the pen, all year.

I like this guy's chances at being a nice plus.

If you have 2-3 guys in your pen who can go 3-5 innings, then you can afford to have a quick hook, early in games, before it becomes "mop up." Take Houck: he has issues after facing batters twice. He really needs to be yanked after 18 batters, almost every game. If we have Pivetta, Crawford and Whitlock in the pen, it's no problem.

Out of Pivetta, Crawford, Houck and Whitlock, none have put together a full season of pitching like a solid #3 or better. All have a nice stretch or two of 8-20 or even 24 starts in a row pitching like a 2 or 3, but it's too much to expect most of them to do something they have never done for a whole season. We are also asking 3 of the 4 I listed to blow past their highest MLB IP total AND at a better or equal pace to their best stretch. Hoping one can might be asking too much. Hoping two can is a very long shot. Hoping 3 can is setting yourself up for a major disappointment.

Agreed. While we have some hopes for 5-6 pitchers, and all have had some nice stretches of doing well as starters, we will need a perfect storm of everyone doing their career best or matching it, all at the same time, to have a real chance. Okay, maybe just 4 of them. We have very little wiggle room, and must be healthy, too. To me, it's too much to ask, as of now, and the way these guys are talking, I'm not encouraged about any major additions to the rotation by opening day.