moonslav59

The best we can expect from our rotation? Here are the best stretches our possible SP'ers have had in recent years: Brayan Bello: Season: 2023: 4.24 ERA, 4.54 FIP. .777 OPS Against, 1.34 WHIP 20 Game stretch in 2023: 3.18 ERA/ 4.16 FIP, .718 OPSA Lucas Giolito: Season 2019: 3.41/ 3.43, .645 OPSA, 1.06 WHIP 3 seasons '19-'21: 3.47/ 3.54 and 1.08 WHIP First 19 starts of 2023: 3.45/ 4.18, and .697 OPSA Nick Pivetta: Season: 2023: 4.04/ 3.96 and .685 OPSA and 1.12 WHIP (some as RP) Best SP stretch: last 7 GS of 2023: 2.37/ 2.73 and 543 OPSA 22 GS in 2022: 3.92/.404 (.706 OPSA) and 20 GS in '21: 4.27/4/14 (.699) Kutter Crawford: Season: 2023 (some as RP): 4.04/ 3.83 and .669 OPSA & 1.11 WHIP 15 game stretch in 2023: 3.73/3.92 and .691 OPSA Tanner Houck: Seasons: 2021 (some as RP): 3.52/2.58 and .608 OPSA and 1.13 WHIP 2020-2022 as SP (20 GS): 3.22/ 2.85 (Best on Sox w 90+ IP) 11 GS stretch in 2021: 3.51/ 2.87 and .621 OPSA Garrett Whitlock: He does not have a long record as a SP'er. 8 game stretch as SP'er in 2022: 3.60 ERA/ 3.57 FIP and .687 OPSA We could possibly see a perfect storm, where all these guys put together a long season like some of their best stretches or seasons past, but it is against the odds. There is talent. There are skills. There is some nasty stuff these guys can throw- all of them. The problem is, they have some pretty long stretches of not being good enough to be even a 5th starter.

It will be interesting to see if they draft more pitchers than we have been, recently. (I hope we continue drafting the best available player, pitcher or not.) This year's IFA signings does not show a shift towards signing more pictures than in the past. We did sign Dalvinson Reyes to the 3rd highest bonus (tied), but he's the only pitcher with a bonus higher than $175K. (3 of the top 17 signing bonuses were to pitchers.

Yes, "finally." They just hired these guys, after we've known about this problem for over 10+ years. I was hoping Bloom would bring some people in.

I don't think teams hold grudges over their past mistakes. Maybe they learned from their mistakes on Moncada and Kopech, but I doubt they blame a team. I do not think Yorke is worth the 13 value BTV gives him, and I doubt any GM does. He'd likely be a nice throw-in to a deal, and not needing t be on the 40 is a plus. Being a secondary target begs the question, "Who is the primary guy?" Let's say most GMs value Yorke between 6-10, and we don't want to part with a top 3 prospect. We aren't going to get a projected #1-2 SP'er. It's doubtful we can get a #3, unless we package 3-4 mid level guys. Some teams likely want Rafaela, but I'd hesitate on trading him. We have to give to get, and I don't see us trading Duran and Rafaela, even if we sign Duvall. Maybe Duran or Rafaela plus Yorke and a promising A+ prospect. Maybe Houck + Yorke + Wikelman or Peralez for a #3-4 SP. If MIA needed a 2Bman, trading Yorke plus 2 prospects between 10-25 would be good, for us, but they don't need Yorke. (3 teamer?) Giving up someone like Houck + Yorke and a3rd tier prospect(s) better work, as the guy we get back has to be a better bet than Houck, who could be a good SP'er, as is. I can see why many are hesitant to trade Duran. If he can play like 2023 for a full season, he's a very nice piece to the line-up. He can probably be an average LF'er in 2024 on D.

Finally, some evidence that an attempt to improve our pitching pipeline has begun. All I can say is, "What took them this long?" This is one of the most encouraging things I've read about this club in years.

I don't agree with all of the BTV numbers, but if any GM thinks these guys are worth nearly this much, I'd kick the tires on trades for a SP: 34 Duran 22 Houck 13 Yorke 10 Schreiber 8 EValdez 4.4 Walter 0.8 Mata (out of options) BTV accepted this 3 team trade: To BOS: E Cabrera (5 yrs) To MIA: H-S Kim (1 yr) + Blaze Jordan To SDP: Rafaela + Walter I like this accepted trade: To BOS: Braxton Garrett (5 yrs) To MIA: Duran (5 yrs), Houck (4 yrs) and Jordan

I doubt we had anyone to match the Lopez deal, and yes, Castillo cost a lot of talent, but I think he was worth it, and we had top prospects, at that time. Hell, I'd have settled for the Civale trade, at this point.

I still think we missed the boat on Luis Castillo or Pablo Lopez, but who knows, if those teams wanted any of our prospects.

One part of this team I am optimistic about is the offense. I know we lost Dugo, Turner and Duvall. Together, they provided a pretty big punch to out line-up, in terms of power, OBP and big hits. Turner was... 2nd in PAs 5th in OPS (.800) 3rd in HRs (23) 2nd in RBI (96) Duvall was... 8th in PAs 3rd in OPS (.834) 4th in HRs, despite just 320 ABs 5th in RBI (58 in 353 PAs) Dugo was.... 3rd in PAs 7th in OPS (.745) 6th in HRs (13) 6th in RBI (54) That is nearly 1600 PAs, total. I expect most of these PAs will be replaced by a possible acquisition for RF (Duvall) or LF (O'Neill to RF) and... O'Neill (LF/RF) career .776 OPS more PAs from: Duran (362 PAs> 550+) .828 OPS in 2023 Abreu (85 > ???) .862 Rafaela (89 > ???) .666 maybe EValdez (149) .764 or Refsnyder (243) .682 This may seem lacking, unless and until we see if we add anybody, but I'm hopeful we can match these 3 lost players with this group. This is the part that may give us a big boost: 2B/SS (2023>2924) 2023: .662 at 2B (PAs at 2B: 191 Arroyo, 148 EValdez, 88 Urias, 84 Reyes, 59 Kike, 24 Turner, 18 others) .636 at SS (224 Kike, 143 Story, 101 Chang, 87 Reyes, 34 DHam, 24 Rafaela, 10 Arroyo, 6 others) It might be a lot to ask for 550+ PAs from Story and Grissom, but just over 450 should provide a big boost to the offense. Story: .836 career OPS (.723 career away still blows away 2023.) Grissom: .746 career OPS with upside potential (Subs should be Reyes, Rafaela and EValdez) Other hopeful areas for improvement on 2023: Yoshida: it's his second year in the USA, and he should play more at DH, this year. He ended up at .783 in 2023, which is not horrible. I'm hopeful he can improve on his .338 OBP. He was at .851 on Aug 1st (.367 OBP) and was still at .800 on Sept 13th (.345 OBP) before slumping badly to end his first MLB season. Devers just turned 27 (peak prime for many players.) His .851 OPS was his 4th best in his last 4 full seasons. I think he can do better. His career high is .916, and I would not be surprised, if he tops that in 2024. Casas just turned 24. It's hard to project players at his age, but he was one of MLB's best second half hitters in 2023. He ended up at a very respectable .856 OPS. That is pretty amazing when you consider his OPS was still under .600 on May 6th. It was really more like a great 2/3rds of a season: May 7th> .931 OPS with 21 HRs in just 339 ABs! That's 40 HR power over 650 ABs. The hardest area to be really optimistic about on offense is our catchers, but there are some good signs. Both are still in their prime. I think both can improve o 2023's offense, but I'm not expecting by a whole lot. .673 Wong in 403 PAs (was at .729 on Sept 9th, including an .803 stretch of 40 games) .668 McGuire in 206 PAs (.740 since joining the Sox,. He was at .704 on Sept 14th, last year.) A lot will depend on the kids: Casas, Grissom, Abreu, Rafaela and maybe EValdez. I'm confident we can climb in the OPS rankings in 2024. Others lost: PA rank (2023 OPS) 9. Kike 323 (.599) 11. Arroyo 206 (..638 16. Chang 112 (.552) 17. Urias 109 .698 18. Tapia 97 (.701) 23. Alfaro 20 (.368) and C Hamilton 6 (.167) That's about 880 PAs. Not as much as the 1600 good PAs lost, but a pretty big chunk. Hopefully, less from 53 Dalbec .570 39 DHam .438 While I think our defense will still be below average, I think we can finish in the middle 10 tier. SS: more games by Story could provide a huge boost over 2023. 2B: While Grissom was a below average SS, I think he can become an average 2Bman, quickly. Even 16th to 20th in MLB would be a big plus over last yea's worst D at 2B. 1B: Casas showed improvement on D, last year, but still has a ways to go to get to the norm. 3B: Devers has been up and down. Last year was down. C: A hard area to call. Most catchers improve after age 27-28, so let's see. LF: Less of Yoshida has to be a plus. CF: Depends on how much Duran plays CF. Call it even. RF: Dugo did well, last year. We may dip a little, but Abreu may surprise, and O'Neill is not bad, when healthy. Our pen may be very good or average. A lot depoends on how much our tweeners are needed in the rotation. Our rotation looks worse than last year, to me. At best: even. Ceilings reached by most: better.

He's certainly getting a taste of shifting messaging. It sure seems like they shammed him, too.

Frank Schwindel? LOL

Anger at books. I wonder where that all started.

Sign stealing is not against the rules, even today. Using technology to do it is.

Ban the players, too?

It might be 7.

Astros making push for Hader. (I was wondering when they'd add someone.)

FAs Still Unsigned (Ranked by MLBTR) 2. Bellinger OF 4. Snell SP 6. Monty SP 7. M Chapman 3B 8. Josh Hader Closer (5 of top 8 still on the market) 16. Soler DH/LF 20. JD Martinez DH 26. Hoskins 1B 27. Stephenson RP 30. Clevinger SP (10 of top 30 still unsigned) 33. A Chapman RP 34. Lorenzen SP 38. Ursula UT 39. A Rosario SS/2B 40. Merrifield 2B 41 J Turner DH/1B/3B (16 out of 41.) 45. B Belt 1B 47. Jumis SP 49. Hendricks RP 50. T Anderson SS/2B Others: Duvall RF, Paxton SP (maybe 22 out of top 52?)

It makes me think 2025 is not in the plans, either.

Signing Clevinger or Paxton doesn't hurt the future.

I do think the Sox have a "window" in mind, and it does not include 2024. Even trading for a top pitcher with 4-5 years of control, essentially "wastes" a year of that control. While I think it would be nice to get a boost for 2024, even if they know a ring is highly improbable, I can at least understand that plan. It sure sucks, for now. I'm also thinking, they probably don't think Anthony, mayer and Teel will all be "in stride" by 2025, so they may be planning on 2026, for all we know. They sure know how to extend a 5 year rebuild plan. That's something they are good at.

We'd have to give up a non 40 man player, like maybe DHam or Lugo. I'm not sure what it would take. I'm thinking Mata will not impress, so he could be an easy DFA or trade choice. If he sucks in ST'ing, he might pass through waivers. You want to keep as many options open, as possible, especially for young pitchers with some sort of promise.

They might both make it, but neither can be sent to AAA.

Yes, I meant to make the last line RP7/AAA.

I listed some longshots and possible role players and depth. There is a chance some of the players you did not list improve and make an impact. It might be a long shot. Add the chances of Mata, Fitts and Guerrero, and I'd say there is a significant chance something good could happen in '24 or '25. (Maybe not over 50%, but maybe 33% to 50.

Let's assume minimal additions like Paxton & Duvall. This could be the opening day roster for 2024: 1. L Duran CF/ R Grisson 2B 2. L Devers 3B 3. R O'Neill LF 4. L Casas 1B 5. R Duvall RF 6. L Yoshida DH 7. R Story SS 8. R Grissom 2B/ L Duran CF 9. LR Wong C/ L McGuire C Bench: Reyes, Refsnyder, Wong/McGuire, Abreu/Rafaela, EValdez/Dalbec SP1 Bello SP2 Giolito SP3 Paxton SP4 Pivetta SP5 Crawford SP6 Houck (RP) RP1 Jansen RP2 Martin RP3 Winckowski RP4 Schreiber RP5 Whitlock RP6 Slaten or Mata AAA Bernardino, Campbell, Criswell, Weissert, Kelly, Murphy, Walter, Castillo, Fitts, Gambrell, Guerrero