moonslav59

Imanaga was 0-0 before last year. Lugo was close to .500 as a SP'er, before '24. Flaherty, too. I guess we should have signed Severino or big "winners" like Paxton.

It's okay to ponder and maybe hope we spend the same as 2024, at minimum, but I think expecting us to do it just asking for a letdown,

Agreed, and even if JH keeps the budget $10M under the line, we should have $50-55M to spend on 4 pitchers. If we trade for one, $55M for 3 pitchers can get some of the best FA pitchers on the market: $28-30M on SP1, $13-15M on a close and $10-14M on another SP. It seems simple. Last year, many were worried about the offense, and the loss of Turner, Duvall and the hole at middle infield, plus doubts about catcher and the OF. We were also looking at Dugo's $9M arb and paying Sale to maybe not pitch, again. On top of that, we were losing 28 starts by Paxton and Kluber and somehow preventing the repeat of another 16 starts by our pen or scrubs. This year, our offense looks all set, and we could even afford to trade from our everyday player depth. That's a huge relief for this winter's plans, compared to last winter's, although we basically spent nothing on the O by replacing Dugo with O'Neill. With the pitching, we ended up not just needing to replace the 35 starts by Paxton, Kluber, openers and scrubs, we ended up subtracting Sale's 20 GS from 2023. That's 55! Even assuming Gio helps replace some of those 55 from 2023 in 2025, we also lose Pivetta and our two best RP'ers from 2023-2024 (Jansen & Martin.) We simply need 4 really good to excellent pitchers added just to meet the gap caused by the 2023 swing and misses plus losing 3 of our better pitchers, this coming winter (Pivetta, Jansen & Martin.) We need 3 just to replace them, plus at least one for the gap we left after 2022's season. I'd like to see us add 5, but 4 quality ones should be close to enough. By adding 2 SP'ers plus the eventual return by Gio, we force Whit to the pen and replace Pivetta's inconsistencies as a SP'er. Adding Whit, and then maybe Crawford, when Gio returns helps improve the pen, especially since both rate to be more than 1 inning pitchers. Add a closer and decent set-up man to go with the addition of Hendriks and maybe a full year from Slaten and we should be fine. Having Priester, Fitts, Criswell and maybe Dobbins as deep rotation depth is another added value to our 2025 pitching. SP1 _____ SP2 Houck SP3_____ SP4 Bello SP5 Crawford then Gio SP depth: (Crawford) Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins or spot starts by Wink Closer _____ Set Up _____ Set Up Hendriks RP4 Slaten RP5 Whitlock RP6 (Crawford) Winckowski RP7 (Wink) Bernardino RP8 (Bernardino) Fulmer RP depth: (Bernardino) Weissert, Kelly, I Campbell, Booser, Guerrero, Murphy, Mata, Hord, Shugart (SP'ers converted) This looks fine, to me.

B-I-N-G-O ! I do think Sale was a goner, even if we kept Bloom. I also think Dugo was a goner, no matter who are 2024 GM/CBO was.

Good post. It might not have been obvious to us, at the time, but the fact that we added no SP'er after Gio went down, proves we had no desire to add one before Gio went down. The overall plan was lacking and quite frankly, sucked bigtime. I don't think any of us disagree with that. Sure, the budget limited Brez's choices, but he did choose to trade Sale, when we need pitching and then put all his financial eggs in the Gio basket. Although I was never high on Gio, I a t least understand why he chose a shorter term option like Gio with the hopes he'd give us near or over 180 IP. To me, the innings was an even higher priority than the ceiling skill level of Gio. We had a bunch of other SP'ers with no history of eating mega innings. The two we had, Bello and Pivetta had other question marks, too. I did not like the trade, at first, but went in the opposite direction you did, the more I thought about it. I too, felt this was not the end of the moves and expected more than just Gio, Criswell and Anderson. I also felt they it was a good effort to finally fix our long-standing 2B problem. My main reason for coming around to kinda liking the trade was that I felt we'd spend up to the tax line, and the $10M saved would allow us to add more than just a Gio type SP'er. Instead of adding $6M for O'Neill, we could have added his $6M to the $10-11M of "budget space" to land a second pitcher- like maybe Lugo or Imanaga. Had we done that, we'd be in the playoff hunt, right now. We might even be sitting in a playoff favorite position, right now. The overall plan, even within the limited budget context was a failure in foresight, and horrific in hindsight.

That is some scary news on Crochet, plus he has only 2 years of control.

I don't think we can just try to incrementally improve our pitching and pitching depth, much longer. Sooner of later, we need to take a plunge or make a splash- pardon the cliches. Since last season, we tried to improve our rotation dependability (adding Gio while subtracting Sale) while beefing up the farm (bats for arms with Yorke> Priester & Dugo for 2 pitching prospects- Fitts & Judice + a vet, and also the Sandlin deal) and pen depth (adding Slaten, Weissert, I C ampbell & some minor league add-ons.) I don't want to get into the lack of success, but I do think an effort was made. Apparently, we also made changes to our pitching prospect development system and how we develop plans for our big league pitchers to maximize their potential. (Again, I'm not sure how successful we were, especially with our MLB staff collapsing before our eyes.) We need to act boldly and soon! I can't emphasize this enough. To me, upgrading our pitching staff is such a high priority, no everyday position upgrade comes even close to being a top 5 need, except maybe swapping out a LHB everyday player for a RHB everyday player, but even then, I'd rather trade Abreu for a pitcher than a RHB clone of himself. (We can use Anthony in RF.) I do not think trading Dugo and Yorke for pitching comes close to the level of moves I think needs to be made, plus we also traded 2 young pitchers for 1 year of O'Neill, which offsets my point, a little bit on what we have already done. We've had a full year to evaluate Rafaela, Abreu, DHam, Wong, Duran and some pitchers. We have a better idea about what we can expect from them, as well as our near MLB ready prospects. It's decision time, folks! I hope to hell, JH & Co. don't think that time is next winter. It should be now, and I am not a kind of person who thinks only about "gimmie, gimmie, gimmie NOW!" We have several positions where we have duplicated value, and while depth is important, especially at SS on our team, we need to pick some lanes and go with it. We simply have to trade some bats for arms and on a higher and deeper scale than just Dugo and Yorke. I break it down like this: OF is our strength, and by 100 miles- not just in starter value, but also on the bench and on the farm. I've often joked about us having 10 guys whose best position is LF or should be LF, someday. To me, Duran has to be viewed as the keep at all cost OF'er. I don't see trading Rafaela, although Duran is now a plus CF'er, too. Rafaela bats RH'd and is GG caliber in a difficult Fenway CF. Although I really like Abreu, I think keeping Rafaela, who is locked up long term over Abreu. With Anthony looking like the best prospect we've had in a very long time, it makes sense to trade Abreu or go for broke on obtaining a young, controllable ace by doing the unthinkable: trading Anthony. I hope Refsnyder plays one more year, but even if he does not, we can afford to trade an OF'er. If we have to, we could play Campbell in CF or EValdez in LF, for emergency depth. I hate hurting our OF depth, so much, but to me OF depth takes a back seat to our massive need for better and more pitchers. Corner IF: Devers and Casas are just about all we have, here. They both probably are better suited for 1B or DH, but we can't afford to mess with that, right now, at least for as long as Yoshida is here and healthy. Meidroth might be the only real depth we have, with Romy being a replacement level 3B/1Bman. We can't afford to trade from here. Catcher: Our catchers ranked 30th in defense. I did not expect that. I thought Wong would improve and McGuire would be his normal decent defender. We added Jansen, late, but the fact is, we suck on catcher D. Teel offers some hope at fixing that, but likely not until 2026. Even if he plays, a lot in 2025, we should not expect great D from him. He will also need to learn his pitchers. I can't see trading from here. Middle IF: Here is where I see a lot of mediocre players- many with some clear strengths but also with clear weaknesses: Story has major health issues but is a great defender at SS or 2B. His bats is largely unknown, right now, but he did have a long history of being pretty good, even on teh road when with COL. DHam has great speed and base-running skills and hitting .724 after May 17th might be sustainable, but his SS defense is bad enough to think he should never play there, unless 2-3 guys are hurt or PH for. He'd be a nice platoon 2Bman, IMO (.729 v RHPs, this year.) Grissom is someone many have given up on, and he really has not hit the ball hard for almost 2 seasons, now. His glove at 2B might end up okay, but who knows with this guy? Romy & Sogard are replacement level stop-gap types. EValdez rates to have a plus bat, over time, but his defense is so horrific, they demoted him in the middle of a .900 batting stretch. He is probably a LF'er/DH type that may only be good in a platoon role. That is not a high value trade candidate. Campbell and Mayer offer some great hopes and promise. I mean off-the-charts great. We also have some farther away prospects showing a lot of promise on O & D. We could also use Meidroth at 2B and maybe SS in a pinch. Rafaela offers 26 man roster depth, but I truly believe we should not count on starting him at middle IF, unless 2 guys are out... better to plan on that being 3 guys out, IMO. How much trade value does DHam have? I'd say not much, and probably not worth trading, this winter, unless we could get a decent pen arm for him. That leaves trading Mayer or Campbell, and I think we all want to keep Campbell. I'm not sure how much trade value Mayer has seen drop off, but he's still a big trade chip, IMO. In short, we need to trade one from Anthony or Abreu and maybe Mayer, too, in order to really jump the pitching to where we need to be. I doubt we trade Anthony and Mayer, so the two most like choices, to me would be packages like these: A. Mayer, Abreu and one or two from Sandlin, Fitts, E R-C) B. Anthony, DHam and one or two like above. I prefer choice A by a long shot, but choice B likely gets us a better or longer controlled ace. In theory, I think we need to do this PLUS sign a top SP'er and a couple pen arms. MINIMUM! We could maybe do a little less and still make the playoffs, but to be playoff faves, I think my suggestions are the bare minimum needed.

Our biggest hop is that the KCR or Twins go on a massive losing stretch, and we go something like 13-8. I'm not sure, but I don't think we've gone 14-7 in any 21 game stretch.

I know I rely, too much, on stats when valuing prospects, but I just don't get the love for Penrod. I also tend to value higher ceilings more than higher or predictable decent floors. We all have our biases.

Agree with both points, and I like your point about Perales and the injury. I had him too low. I think these rankings look fair and maybe better than soxprospects.com. My biggest concern is what I perceive as overvaluing Wikelman. I also think Campbell has passed Mayer, and now, Teel.

Roman AnthonyKyle TeelKristian CampbellMarcelo MayerYoeilin CespedesFranklin AriasBraden MontgomeryJhostynxon GarciaMiguel BleisLuis PeralesChase MeidrothJohanfran GarciaDavid SandlinHunter DobbinsRichard FittsPayton TolleMikey RomeroElmer Rodriguez-CruzJuan ValeraConnelly Early

But .862 OPSA 4.23 ERA AA/AAA over 4.5 BB/9 Lots of guys throw 99 and walk a ton of guys.

Fangraphs Rankings Offense/Defense by position (overall fWAR) T6th/30 Catcher 22nd 21st/14th 1st Base 22nd 30th/29th 2nd Base 30th 12th/29th Short Stop 19th 7th/24th 3rd Base 13th 2nd/14th LF 3rd 6th/5th CF 3rd 3rd/3rd RF 2nd DH 17th (PH 3rd) Clearly, our OF carried our offense and helped the defense. 3B, SS and DH were near average. 2B was worst, again, with 1B and C pretty bad, too. Our SP'ing ranked 12th with a 10.6 fWAR, despite being 22nd in IP. Our pen ranked 15th and were 10th in most IP (2 IP from 8th most.) Overall, in fWAR, our pitching ranks 13th, but it is 9th in xFIP at 4.02 and 8th in SIERA at 3.92. Sox are 22nd in OAA at -16

KCR beat MIN, so we are 5 down in the loss column to both of them. 3 bunchings or 3 teams each ... Loss column only: We are... -10 BAL, NYY, CLE -5 KCR, MIN, HOU Tied BOS, DET, SEA (as of now)

Can someone explain to me why Penrod jumped up? The soxprospects,com podcasts says he will be added to the 40 within 5 days after the WS.

Biggest Jumps and Falls since the start of the 2024 Season: Not Rateds: +36+ Valera (NR>24), +29+ D Ryeyes, +28+ Ju Gonzales, +23+ Riemer, +10+ Dean, Carlson, Ingrassia & Gasper +34 Jh Garcia (49>15) +22 Early (47>25) +19 K Campbell (22>3) +19 J Paez (48>29) +18 Arias (25>7) +16 Mullins (42>26) +16 Penrod (35>19) +13 Romero (27>14) +12 N Taylor (50>38) +6 Dobbins (24>18) +5 Meidroth (14>9) Falls: -31 Hickey (17>48) -23 Rogers (37>60) -19 A Anderson (26>45) -17 Zanetello (13>30) -16 Hoppe (31>57) -15 Gambrell (32>47) -12 Wikelman (8>20)/ Jordan (16>28)/Mata (40>52) -8 Brannon (43>51) -7 Bastardo (29>36)

A tremendous season for the Red one!

#3 Texas plays at #10 Michigan, so Notre Dame could move up a slot with a Michigan win.

Sox Most Recent Prospect Graduations: 2024: Abreu, Rafaela, DHamSlaten, Booser, Horn 2023: Casas, Kelly, Bernardino, Murphy 2022: Duran, Bello, Wong, Crawford, Winckowski 2021: Houck, Whitlock

If we can't pick up a couple games on MIN or KCR, who are playing each other, this weekend, as we play the CWS, then we don't deserve any glory.

Woo is in a late rain delay down 3-2. Dobbins let up 3 ER in 4.2 IP (6H, 2BB, 4K.) Grissom is 1-2 w BB (.698), Anthony 1-4 (.950), Teel 0-2 w BB and Campbell 0-3 w BB (.980.) POR lost 3-1, but Early pitched a gem: 6IP, 2H, 0ER, 0BB, 9K, Sikes went 2-4, Romero 1-4 w SF and JH Garcia 0-3 w BB. GRE is tied, late. E R-C let up 4 in 4IP. SAL is getting drilled, and Valera lasted just 2.2 (4H, 3ER, 1BB, 5K) Alcantara homered.

Sale is a lock to win the Cy Young Award. Could Houck win the AL Comeback Player Award? If Duran wasn't pretty good, last year, he could have won it.

I've beeb avoiding the game threads, but felt the desire to add a factoid: Since June 1st, and before today's 1-2 game w a BB, EValdez has a .902 OPS in about 100 PAs. .299 BA .374 OBP This guy raked over the minors for about a year and a half with HOU, before the Vaz trade brought he and Abreu to BOS. (If only he could field a position without embarrassing himself.) I'm over and out...

If we end up breaking camp with Fitts or Priester on the 26, it means we went cheap, again. I'm not sure we have any of the top prospects on the 26 or 40 man roster on opening day, since all are not Rule 5, yet. I do agree, Anthony and Campbell are the two best choices, and are likely upgrades over what we have or will have starting at 2B and RF, next season. Teams like to hold off adding players that don't need to add, until absolutely needed. Adding one or two means cutting ties with 1-2 other players. They usually give those 2 guys a chance, first, if needed. Now, if Ref retires or there is an OF injury, or we play rafaela at middle IF, then the chances Anthony is added goes up. If Grissom, DHam, Romy, Sogard and EValdez all look weak, maybe we jump the gun on Campbell, but I think they give the best of those 5 every chance to make the 26. Believe me, I'd love to see Anthony and Campbell in the opening day line-up. If trading Abreu can improve our pitching, I'd be glad we did it for that reason and to allow Anthony a FT position. Same with trading DHam and adding Campbell. 1. L Duran LF 2. R Campbell 2B 3. L Casas 1B 4. L Devers 3B 5. R Story SS 6. L Anthony RF 7. L Yoshida DH 8. R Wong C 9. R Rafaela CF

So, as we get nearer to the end of the 2024 season, most likely on a disappointing note, once again, here is a look at the what the foundation of the 2025 40 man roster might look like: 8 Free Agents to Be: Jansen, Martin, O'Neill, Pivetta, Jansen, Garcia, Sims, Paxton 5 IL (60 Day) Players to be added over the winter: Giolito, Whitlock, Hendriks, Mata, Murphy (I'm assuming Story will be added before the season ends. These two groups pretty much cancel each other out and leave us at 37, before making any additions and subtractions to prepare for Rule 5, and trades/signings. 28 Keepers (could trade): Duran, Devers, Houck, Casas, Story, Abreu, Rafaela, Bello, Crawford, Whitlock, Wong, Hendriks, Winckowski, Yoshida, DHam, Slaten, Criswell, Priester, Kelly, Weissert, Perales, Bernardino, I Campbell, Grissom, Guerrero, Romy G, EValdez, Refsnyder (assuming no retirement) 7 Bubble: Heineman, Murphy, Wikelman, Booser, Sogard, Shugart, Gasper 2 DFA/Trade very likely or certain: Dalbec, Horn Add 5-6: for Rule 5 Protection: Fulmer, Fitts, Dobbins, Jh Garcia, Monegro, Castro Bubble Rule 5: Bastardo, Gambrell, Hickey, Liu, Sikes Non Rule 5 Prospects that could be added: Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, Teel, Meidroth, Sandlin (I think we hold off adding any of these players until the last minute, so I will not list any for the opening day projection.) My Opening Day 26 with others on the 40 in parenthesis: (*IL Giolito w Criswell as #5 and Weissert to #8 RP) SP: Houck, Giolito*, Bello, Crawford, Priester (Fitts, Dobbins, Monegro. Perales, Wikelman) RP: Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Kelly, Fulmer, Criswell*, Winckowski, Bernardino (Weissert*, I Campbell, Guerrero, Booser, Murphy) C: Wong, Heineman 1B: Casas 2B: DHam, Grissom SS: Story, Romy (Sogard) 3B: Devers LF: Duran (Castro) CF: Rafaela (Jh Garcia) RF: Abreu, Refsnyder DH Yoshida (E Valdez) Now, we know we will make trades and sign some FAs, and some will need to be added to the 40 man, and likely some to the 26. Personally, I think we try to trade EValdez & Wikelman, but I'm not sure other teams, who also have roster crunches are looking to add a platoon DH and struggling AA pitcher to their 40, so they may end up being DFA'd. However, neither is at the top of my DFA list. To DFA, if no trades for them or for others that could open slots on the 40: 1. Murphy 2. Wikelman 3. Sogard (maybe Romy) 4. EValdez 5. Heinemen (but a catcher would need to be added, like Teel) 6. Castro 7. Booser _________________________________ Here is my actual 26 man projection (not my wish list): SP: __Add__, Houck, Bello, Crawford, Gio/Priester/Fitts/Criswell RP: __Add__, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, __Add__, Wink, Kelly, Fulmer C: Wong, Heineman (or a cheap add) 1B: Casas 2B: DHam- Romy or Grissom (other in AAA) SS: Story, Sogard 3B: Devers LF: Duran CF: Rafaela RF: Abreu-Ref DH: Yoshida I know: not very imaginative. We might add Anthony or Campbell to the opening day 40 and 26 on day one. If it's Anthony, I think we trade Abreu or Yoshida. If It's Campbell, maybe we trade DHam or Grissom, or keep both for minor league depth. We could trade to fill a pitching slot, listed above or just add another pitcher, or trade for a RHB to play RF.